soldat

[pres711]

now that he has dropped off most experts top 10 lists, given the events of the weekend, he deserves another look.  If it\'s wet doesn\'t he win for fun?  I think he is on an 0-2-X pattern with 5 weeks rest.  Has 2 yr.-old foundation, can be rated and has CD experience.  At 20-1 or so he is a must use and possible key. Good luck to all.

[Rick B.]

I hope you are right. I\'m holding a nice futures bet on him at 40-1.

With the way other colts are falling off the TC trail, I might have the 3rd or 4th choice locked up here.

(Or, they might retire him this afternoon.)

[Flighted Iron]

Connections stated he didn\'t care too much for the kickback. Apparently he had
dirt in his trachea. Don\'t see how they can take back in the derby and the front
end won\'t be a picnic.imo,I\'d send.

good luck

[phil23]

Concur.  Depending on The Factor of course, not exactly looking like 22 and 44 so far up front.

[Footlick]

I can see them maybe having him in the first tier, not necessarily in front but depending on who else goes early he could be laying just off the pace.  that might lessen the kickback.  And now that he has experienced it, he may handle it better.

[miff]

Don\'t believe Sodat has as much speed as some may think. Clearing off from post 1 at Gulfstream(short run to the first turn) and sending at CD with it\'s long run to the first turn is apples and oranges.

Wet fast track produced his best fig which may be his best shot.


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Having had a chance to review some numbers and watch some race replays, I\'m warming up to Soldat quite a bit as I\'m willing to draw a line through the Florida Derby. McLaughlin said this fella\'s better on dirt and I believe him, he\'s fit (worked 5f in 59.07 today, galloped out 6f in 1:12), he can win (3 for 8 lifetime) is classy and is one of the fastest on TG. He\'s only been off the board once in 8 starts.

I don\'t expect a new top but if McLaughlin can get a repeat of the FOY, that\'s more than good enough to win this year\'s KY Derby IMO.

Any guess as to off odds? Jimbo?

The only negative is I beleive I\'ve never cashed a ticket with Alan Garcia. This kid is quirkier than Desormeaux

[sekrah]

I think Soldat will be a definent use for me.   I\'m pretty good nailing Derby odds and I think 15 to 20-1 is very possible on him.   There\'s not much buzz on him at all, I can see him being atleast 5th or 6th choice.

The only problem with him is his best numbers are when he\'s controlled the pace.   He fell behind in the Fla Derby and McLaughlin knew he was in trouble?   Unless he gets away with what he got away with in that Jan 21st allowance race, He\'s not going to wire this field.

[Flighted Iron]

With regard to Mclaughlins comments on his horses fitness and or energy level,I say good on him.A horse that works that well after whats perceived as a disappointment by the public doesn\'t seem his tone.I for one believe he\'ll have
this guy good come the day,barring unforseen of course.As a price I see him maybe
under and a saver on top if it\'s off.Mclaughlin also mentioned kickback
being less of an issue at CD.Anyone?I\'d stll be sending and take 3w/3w.Obvious reasons going for a piece considering breeding and connections.

[FrankD.]

Buck,

This kid can ride and Ron Anderson just picked up his book. Watch the difference in the stock he\'ll be riding going forward !

[Uncle Buck]

Flighted - this horse does indeed need the 2w-3w trip just off the speed with minimal kickback. He showed in the BC turf event he doesn\'t need the lead to fire. Pluck freaked that day - oh well.

Not sure how CD could have less kickback than any other track? If Soldat draws well (#6-#14), he\'s my key. In the FD, he was climbing a lot with the kickback in the 1st turn. Off a little slow 2. You could literally see him lose interest.

I think the AK Derby horses are trailer trash compared to this guy:-)

[jimbo66]

Buck,

I posted somewhere in another thread, that Soldat is really the only horse with two 3 year old numbers in the 1 or better range.  That said, as Miff and Frank pointed out, one was slop and one was \"loose on the lead\" on a speed favoring surface.

As for odds that Soldat will go off at, that is tough to say.  The Derby\'s \"off odds\" are the toughest odds to guess at.  Let\'s assume Mo and The Factor both run, then I could see Soldat getting lost in the 12-1 range.  However, if we lose Mo and/or The Factor, we may only see 8-1 to 10-1.

Good luck,

jim

[jbelfior]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Soldat will be a definent use for me.  
> I\'m pretty good nailing Derby odds and I think 15
> to 20-1 is very possible on him.   There\'s not
> much buzz on him at all, I can see him being
> atleast 5th or 6th choice.
>
> The only problem with him is his best numbers are
> when he\'s controlled the pace.   He fell behind in
> the Fla Derby and McLaughlin knew he was in
> trouble?   Unless he gets away with what he got
> away with in that Jan 21st allowance race, He\'s
> not going to wire this field.


You\'re now on your 3rd Derby Horse. Midnight Interlude, then Santiva, now Soldat.
At this rate you can cover the entire gate by May 7.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

I got 45-1 futures ticket on Archarcharch too Joe :-D.

Joe, relax, we got 2 weeks to go.  Everybody here will be using horses underneath and savers (except for you apparently).    I have several I\'m considering as my \"Top Dog\", including the 3 you mentioned, including AAA, including MMM, maybe another as well.  Have a cup of joe and cool down, come May 7th I\'ll post the exact tickets I\'ll be playing.

[MonmouthGuy]

If you like Soldat, I think you will be happy with the odds you will get. I can\'t imagine him going off as the 5th choice, nor do I think he will go off under 15-1 no matter who makes it into the gate.

You can get him at the Wynn or offshore at 18-1 to 20-1 and that seems about right.  You will be rewarded fairly if he fires back to his top.