I\'ve got a couple of opinions on the Preakness.
I think there is one big unknown which tempers my enthusiasm for betting the Preakness big. We don\'t know how AK is going to run and/or take to the Pimlico strip. As I\'ve posted here on the board, to me he runs more like a turfer, and I don\'t like to play back on horses that run big first time on dirt. By strictly reading his sheet I would say he backs up. How much he backs up is the real question. But by everything I am hearing, the horse is doing fantastic at Fair Hill and acts as if the Derby took nothing out of him. So for me, he\'s tough to like as the favorite but he\'s also tough to play against.
Lot\'s of talk about DI getting a poor ride in the Derby, not having a pace to run into, etc. I\'ve heard a fair number people say they think he runs much better here. But I don\'t like him at all. He was slow coming into the Derby and trained very gingerly leading up to the race. That\'s usually not a recipe for winning a spring classic. He\'s also been galloping like a sore horse, but race day meds can make a big difference. Even considering that, he\'s still slow and still faces the same problem of having to come from last to first in a large field, which could mean wide trip. I think the pace will be solid here, but it doesn\'t look to be suicidal unless one of the early speed types gets hyped up and tries to run off. And even if that happens the rest of the horses won\'t necessarily follow suit. I think he will take about the same amount of money as MMM. He would need to fire a new top to win adn I don\'t see it. I think he is more likely to miss completely. So for me he is a bet against.
Unlike DI, MMM was trained very hard for the KY Derby. Ritvo also gave him a decent work in between the Derby and Preakness. He still hasn\'t run back to his 2 yr old top, which is a negative to me. But because he\'s got that big number sitting there and was well rested coming into the Derby, he still has room for developement and doesn\'t have to bounce here. He may even move forward, and I think the slightly shorter distance helps him. The negative for me is that he doesn\'t seem to be very mature or focused yet when he runs. Lots of talk about him being a late foal. If he breaks through now and gets back to his 2 year old top he is a real danger to win. But I think he has a better shot to get up for a piece.
Overall I really like SHAK as a horse, and I liked him alot to hit the board and possibly win in the KY Derby. In fact, here is what I said about him in a PM on Oaks Day:
\"I\'m going to single JV over Archarcharch, Shackleford & Animal Kingdom in the Oaks/Derby double. I may not do the AAA bet if the value isn\'t there, as I make him 25% to get a terrible trip from the rail and 40% to have at least enough trouble that it has an impact. So I have to get some value to mitigate that, and with Mo scratching some of the value in that pool just went away. If they don\'t go too fast early in the Derby I think SHAK has a good shot to hang on and be there in the end, more so for a piece but I want something on him in case he actually wins. He\'s going to be a price and he\'s a gamer, but the distance may be just out of his reach. IMO 20-1 or so odds makes up for that risk. And AK just scares the hell out of me because he\'s got a perfect style for this, bred to love the added distance, he tries every time, has good spacing, he has some dirt breeding and worked like a monster on it last week. Big odds on him as well.\"
I did not play the JV/AAA Oaks/Derby double. I did play the JV/AK, SHAK double, but obviously missed when JV did not win the Oaks. So althought I liked SHAK in the Derby, that was then. This is now. To me, this horse ran as hard as he could have in Louisville. That was an all out effort. I don\'t know how much the bad rail affected him, but in any case he just came up of short of providing me with a huge score if he could have held on for 3rd. I think that all out effort is going to cost him here. He has a history of running poorly on 3 weeks rest in the Fountain of Youth. Now he has to come back in two weeks. Other than perhaps spending too much time on a dead rail in the KY Derby, he got a perfect set up setting a pretty slow early pace, and he still couldn\'t hang on. So I think 1 1/8th is about his limit, which means he could get 1 3/16th under the right circumstances, but he faces more early pressure here. He can rate, however, so he could still run well. But I don\'t see him firing a new top here, and word I have is that the derby seems to have taken something out of him. He isn\'t galloping with the same energy, he\'s lost some weight and is looking a little worse for the wear. So in this spot, he is a reluctant play against for me.
Baffert\'s horse could do anything here. The Derby was more or less a non-effort for him. So he could come back with a pair or a new top. Great unknown. His price will probably be fair though, so I use him on half my tickets and toss him on the rest.
Dance City ran very well in the Arkansas Derby. He was the only early pace horse that hung around late and he arguably ran one of the best races and certainly ran his heart out. Word I heard was that he was a dead tired horse coming out of that race. And now he would need to run a new top here to win. He hasn\'t trained like a new top is forthcoming, so I don\'t see that. I see a pair at best, and that isn\'t going to be good enough. He\'s also going to take some money here and I think he will be an underlay based on what I view his actual chances to win or make the exotics are. I view him much the same as Baffert\'s horse. But he is a reluctant use for me on half my tickets, and a toss on the rest.
I really like Sway Away to fire a big one here. I\'m not sure of that. But he is training like a monster and his ARK Derby was much better than it looked. When a horse gets bumped around pretty hard like he did it tends to stress them out and take away energy. He was pretty rank all the way around the first turn, got a wide trip, moved prematurely into a fast pace (which being rank may not have been the jock\'s fault), took the lead and then ran out of gas the last 100 yards or so. I think that was a pretty good effort all things considered. Now he comes in fresh, fit as a fiddle and ready to fire a new top IF he can relax early. At his likely odds I\'m betting he does. He\'s my key horse.
Most of the new shooters look fairly over matched to me. But you can make a case for a few of them could lump up and hit the board, especially for the bottom of the supers. I have noticed over the years that horses that have been based at Pimlico and run well over it can tend to run surprisingly good races in the Preakness, so I think you have to consider that when structuring your bet.
GL to all.
