My take on the Preakness and Black Eyed Susan

[jimbo66]

Looking at the Black Eyed Susans - Preakness double pools, a few thoughts on the way the Preakness horses are bet.

Sway Away, Richie Bee\'s \"International Good Thing\" is underlaid.  Looks about half his 15-1 morning line.  I was hoping for 10-1, seems unlikely.

Animal Kingdom solid 5-2 favorite.

Dialed In a clear second choice.  Looks 9-2ish.

Mucho Macho Man a bit disrespected at what appears to be 6-1 or so.

Dance City around 8-1.

Shackleford very dead at 15-1+ odds.

Flashpoint very very dead at 20-1+ odds.

[covelj70]

MJ,

you needed to remind me about Denis of Cork right before I bring up the online account to do my business for today and tomorrow?

come on man, that\'s bad kharma

I am obviosly kidding but I had many of the same plays that you did on DoC that day.  I was sitting at the top of the stretch that day and when they went by me I just assumed that when BB stopped, DoC was the winner.  Then Zito holds on for the wire to wire job and I am thinking that I am still ok because I had DoC huge across the board and wrongly assumed that the show payouts would be great with BB finishing out of the money (I didn\'t look closely at the show pools like an idiot before the race).  Nope, the bridge jumpers laid off him and I go home with a fraction of what I thought I would when they were at the top of the stretch. Bad memory.

Just what I need before I unload on Dance City...hahah.

good luck to all, I have to say, the back and forth on this Preakness on the board has been as good as any race in recent memory, most of all because there are so many varying opinions.  

I went back to look at Sway Away\'s sheet, form and video of his races again and I just can\'t get there so I don\'t think we can both cash on this one buddy.  At least one of us is going to be wrong!

thanks for all of your help

[asfufh]

What\'s up with Motion\'s new (at least to me) training approach with AK?
4 turf and poly races then a couple of dirt workouts then the big Derby win and now back to poly for workouts and then show up race day for the Preakness. Trying to beat the poly-big dirt fig--big dirt bounce scenario??

[drbillym]

Enjoying the Preakness posts, but haven\'t seen any conviction on the Black Eyed Susan yet so I will offer mine, using the owner  trainer angle.  Harold Queen and David Fawkes have been together for years and are doing quite well.  Hot Summer, by Malibu Moon, should be OK at the longer distance.  Chalky DD with AK and will throw in Sway Away, tho I am afraid he is becoming the wise guy horse.

[PonyBologna]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> In terms of the Black Eyed Susan, I love Royal
> Delta.  Fast coming in, gets weight, drew a great
> post for a small field like this, will love the
> extra distance and showed she is a special filly
> when she won for Mott first time out despite a bad
> break and traffic trouble.  We all know that Billy
> doesn\'t have them cranked first out so for her to
> do what she did and then follow that up with the
> freakish performance at Keenland last out says she
> is a very very special filly so I will be playing
> bigger 1x3 DD\'s and I will use King Congie in a
> smaller 1x1 double.
>
> Good luck to all


Great call, Jim. Hope you pulled down something nice.  Thanks as always!

[martoon]

It\'s been raining everyday this week in Maryland, so I\'m sure he just preferred to get his exercise in galloping over the all weather track instead of a muddy dirt track.  That\'s not unusual at all for Fair Hill trained horses.

[covelj70]

Thanks very much, really appreciate that.

Didn\'t have anything on her nose since I didn\'t like the value but I have some very significant doubles to AK, MMM and DC and a smaller double to KC.

Gives me some flexibility in terms of how to play tomorrow.

I feel like I have dejavu from 2 weeks ago as I had Plum Pretty in the first half of the Oaks/Derby Double and I was alve to some real payouts but I laid an egg in the Derby.

Good luck, thanks again.

[PonyBologna]

I\'m there with you on AK,MMM and DC.

Have a question for the board. We had a discussion about handicapping well but betting poorly. I like the above 3 for the win, along with Astrology, to a lesser degree. Here\'s how I have my bets structed (at the moment).

$10 WP 1,8 ($40)
$20 WP 9  ($40)

$5 Ex P/W ($105)
8,9,11/ 1,5,6,7,8,9,11,14

$1 Tri P/W ($72)
8,9,11/ 1,8,9,11/ 1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14

Total: $257

Am I way off base as far as my bets reflecting who I like? (Clearly we all disagree on the particulars of \"who\").  Any advice would be very welcomed as I really respect the opinions here. Almost feel like me posting on a board called \"Ask the experts\" is out of my league. hehe

[Michael D.]

good call on Mott\'s RD, Jim. gave me more confidence.

a relatively simple way to turn Sway Away into a $50 proposition. similar to last year\'s Derby, when Blind Luck won the Oaks by a nose at underlaid odds, but turned the wise-guy 8-1 horse into a $50 colt. it\'s also a good way to save some money in case I\'m way off on the Preakness.

good luck with your doubles.

[covelj70]

Thanks Mike,

Do you have the double will pays?

[Michael D.]

the #\'s from the Twin Spires board, two bucks -

AK - 20
MMM - 48
DC - 70
KC - 180


your DC is paying well. that should really help you tomorrow.

[covelj70]

thank you very much

[ruthlessman]

Do you have dd on Sway Away?

[Michael D.]

ruthlessman Wrote:
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> Do you have dd on Sway Away?


$48

[ruthlessman]

Thanks Michael