On a Scale of 1 to 10

[big18741]

Phil

The summer two year old debut is very good and so is the first race back this year.

Problem could be the OFF-X-X races in between.I guess we\'ll know after his next couple.

[ajkreider]

No disagreement on his talent, and the way things have been in recent years, two starts before the Derby shouldn\'t be an impediment.  

I guess I\'ve just got a different philosophy on future wagers.  The comparison doesn\'t seem to be with the top two (that are almost certainly bad bets at this stage).  It\'s with what we\'d expect the odds to be for Gemologist on
Derby day.  If you think you can get 12-1 or better the day of the race, 23-1 before he\'s turned a foot in anger this year doesn\'t look cheap - even if he\'s the most talented of this crop.

[alm]

I\'m hoping this guy does NOT win the Rebel, which may boost the odds in the final future pool.  I know nothing repeats itself exactly (except for the Giants-Pats) but Pletcher\'s come this way before.  If the horse also loses the Ark Derby, who knows what trackside odds you\'ll get in Louisville.

[Funny Cide]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well you may be right but I didnt want to post and
> osund like sour grapes either. Hansen ran well and
> won. Came off the last turn like a racehorse and
> good for him. As Monmouth Guy said between the
> questions about being hung wide and maybe what I
> had heard at 4/5 he was an easy bet against.
>
> He has now already shipped out to Turfway where I
> guess he is going back to Poly in the Lanes End
> and then the Blue Grass or just one of them. So he
> will be tough to figure on derby Day unless he
> begins to run better figures.
>
> Which before yesterday were not much.....


You were right to say you were wrong.  A horse that bleeds a 10, that describes a horse who bled out and died or close to it.  That horse isn\'t coming back in a month to run in any race, much less win one.  It\'s possible he bled a little through his Lasix but that\'s also doubtful as that\'s a problem as well.  Lesson learned here, I\'d say, is to not trust future info from the person who told you this.

[phil23]

So...rumour has it Byrne is going to scratch (didn\'t like post and the ship) and wait for Florida D.  I think his odds of getting into the race just went down (only has 98k in gr$, 3rd in Fla D is 100k which MIGHT be enough, 2nd certainly would) but his odds of winning if he makes the gate have gone up.  2 starts @ 3 prior to the derby, perfect rest (5wks), etc...

Still 45:1

[alm]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No disagreement on his talent, and the way things
> have been in recent years, two starts before the
> Derby shouldn\'t be an impediment.  
>
> I guess I\'ve just got a different philosophy on
> future wagers.  The comparison doesn\'t seem to be
> with the top two (that are almost certainly bad
> bets at this stage).  It\'s with what we\'d expect
> the odds to be for Gemologist on
> Derby day.  If you think you can get 12-1 or
> better the day of the race, 23-1 before he\'s
> turned a foot in anger this year doesn\'t look
> cheap - even if he\'s the most talented of this
> crop.


What do you think of the value of my Pool One bet now?  Seriously, not snarkily.

[ajkreider]

He looked . . . . pretty damn good - especially off the layoff.  Made a very nice horse look ordinary. It will get a top number.

Not quite sure I\'m that wild about 23-1.  But if he blows them away in the Wood or Arkansas Derby, it could look like a very good bet.  Still have a hard time seeing how he leaves the gate at lower odds than Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause.  And if Alpha wins in Louisiana, Dullahan the Blue Grass, and El Padrino makes it close in the Floida Derby, Gemologist could be the 7th choice. (Derby could be an even better betting race than usual this year);

But if off that effort, you offer me 23-1, I give it some serious thought.

[alm]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He looked . . . . pretty damn good - especially
> off the layoff.  Made a very nice horse look
> ordinary. It will get a top number.
>
> Not quite sure I\'m that wild about 23-1.  But if
> he blows them away in the Wood or Arkansas Derby,
> it could look like a very good bet.  Still have a
> hard time seeing how he leaves the gate at lower
> odds than Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause.
> And if Alpha wins in Louisiana, Dullahan the Blue
> Grass, and El Padrino makes it close in the Floida
> Derby, Gemologist could be the 7th choice. (Derby
> could be an even better betting race than usual
> this year);
>
> But if off that effort, you offer me 23-1, I give
> it some serious thought.


Well, if they keep him in Florida and he beats Union in the Fla Derby, he\'s sure to get MUCH lower odds in Churchill.

[ajkreider]

Are they really thinking of wheeling him back in two weeks??

Since he needs earnings, I\'d think they would go with what looks like a softer spot (after yesterday) in Arkansas or Illinois.

[alm]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are they really thinking of wheeling him back in
> two weeks??
>
> Since he needs earnings, I\'d think they would go
> with what looks like a softer spot (after
> yesterday) in Arkansas or Illinois.


I read it\'s the Wood...is that right?  If so, he gets Hansen.  That doesn\'t knock out Union Rags who is the likely Derby favorite, but it probably puts Gem in the second spot if he runs down the gray horse.  

Of course, he has to avoid the bounce off that sharp mile...and he still has to prove he can run AT horses.  Hansen may give him that test.

It\'s still too early to be thinking this way, but I think that one of these three is most likely the Derby winner.  The others are running in circles and haven\'t made a big impression.

[miff]

Al,

Gem came back with a new top (Beyer 95) so that put\'s him in the TG 2.75 range with a forward looking line.Never can say how much a race takes out of a horse, but visually he could not have won easier and was grabbed late.

Good Luck!

Mike