I wrote this post to get the discussion going, not because I put these two in the same category. So much of what we write here looks back on previous races and it\'s all pretty irrelevant. I am happy that the smartest guys on the site responded with lots of good thinking.
Personally, I don\'t care if Bodemeister got the fastest time of anyone coming into this race. At this point I am more interested in who enters, what posts they get, and which horses I think are sitting on a jump forward. There is much to think about.
I am almost certain that I will not be betting Baffert in this situation. I am personally satisfied that he\'s regressed in his approach to the Derby and that he really wrung the lemon in Oaklawn. I don\'t care if this horse rebounds and ever wins another race, but I don\'t think he will hit the board at Churchill, particularly if he draws outside of the others who have natural speed.
I am not a great user of TG sheets; I am too old fashioned. Having said that I have taken a ton of knowledge away from them...in terms of understanding a horse\'s pattern of moving forward or backward. I said it before about this Derby and I\'ll repeat it here...the animals looking to sit on a forward movement are Union Rags, Gemologist and Alpha. They may be slower than Bodemeister on paper right now, but after the Derby I think one of them will be seen as being faster.
As for the posts about Hansen HAVING to go early, that speculation was answered in NY when he took back and looked professional doing it. On the other hand, if they get parked outside he will have to be used too much himself.
Speculation on the effects of blooklines that will succeed also bothers me here, because it too is all backward looking. I respect the facts put forward about some of these horses, but who would you rather bet in a foot race, Jesse Owens or his full brother? (old joke)
And next year\'s great upcoming stallion isn\'t even known yet....Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality?
