Jim: I’m inclined to go in the other direction. Here’s why:
1) Statistically, the top-off pattern generally has not produced what I consider a good effort (either a pair or a top) in the Derby. I’ll give the details to you by PM if you want them, but going back to 1997, 21 horses have come into the Derby with the same general pattern (all with both preps on traditional dirt) and their results in the Derby are not good: no tops, 3 pairs, 7 offs and 11 X’s. More generally, if you want your horse to run a P or T in the Derby, you want to see them coming in with only P’s and/or T’s (or some combination) in their prior two starts.
2) IHA’s specific pattern (a big new top off a layoff, generous rest and then a backward move) concerns me. By comparison, consider the three horses with the same pattern who were able to pair in the Derby. They are Imperialism (2004), Monarchos (2001) and Prime Timber (1999). The pattern of each of them is different from IHA’s in two important ways. A) The new tops of those horses averaged 2 points. Those are more incremental moves than the almost 7-point new top IHA ran in February. B) It may seem counterintuitive, but based on the data you would rather that the new top was run sometime in March, in the midst of a campaign, rather than in February off a long layoff. Each of the three horses who paired in the Derby off the TO pattern ran the T in the midst of a campaign (not off a long layoff), and ran it in March. If IHA is able to run a P or a T in the Derby, he will be a pioneer.
3) As Jerry has noted, IHA was one of many runners from the O’Neill horses that moved forward suddenly early this year. Without getting into all of the controversies, it is certainly an open question whether that form can be maintained over a longer period, and whether it can be reproduced under Derby Day scrutiny.
4) From another point of view, the backward move in the S.A. Derby is a bad sign, and suggests something may be wrong. He had nine weeks of rest into that, which should have been enough for most healthy, developing 3yos to assimilate the layoff effort. The way I look at it, he’s a horse with ability who pops a huge top off a long layoff, has plenty of rest but still goes back, all of which implies to me the horse may have some problems. Now, he worked at the end of last week but I understand that since the S.A. Derby he has been placed on the Vet’s List. Why? Not sure about the specific reason why but obviously it\'s not a good sign.
I\'m going to have to leave him out.
