Derby 138

[sekrah]

I\'m afraid to even post these picks because A) I know some people follow my stuff and B) This is the most difficult Derby I\'ve capped in 15+ years.   I can\'t remember the last time I went into Saturday morning without any conviction at all.  In all honesty, I think you could put the names of all 15 horses in the hat and randomnly draw and have a shot at cashing big.

My biggest key will be Rousing Sermon, who I will be betting WPS as well as him being the main cog in my exotics.  It\'s been 5 months since he first ran his TG 4, he\'s since gone Pair-Off-Pair over speed favoring Santa Anita and a super-highway rail at the Fair Grounds (where he was wide all around).   He has looked fabulous over the CD surface this week and it appears to me that he\'s ready to explode forward again with 5 weeks rest into this one.    Jerry Hollendorfer has been huge over the Churchill surface the past couple years.  His shippers to CD have run a top 27% of the time.  Jose Lezcano also has been fabulous here with 6 winners out of 17 mounts, including the fast closing Ice Box in 2010.

There\'s so much pointing here towards a new top and figure in a decent trip (atleast ground-saving wise), I cannot ignore this animal at 40 to 50-1.


Here\'s a few that I\'m not particularly fond of:

Dullahan - Already has improved 6 points from his 2 year old top and the likelyhood of anaother jump up (which will be needed), on a surface that may not be his most preferred, with only 3 weeks rest, seems pretty long to me.  He is an underlay to me at where it looks like he\'ll be going off at.

Creative Cause - There are so many negatives floating with this one, he\'s just too difficult to touch.  I do not trust Mike Harrington any more than I could throw him.  First he isn\'t a good trainer to begin with, and second, the zero sucked the wind out of this animal.  Joel Rosario has laid a goose-egg on this track.  Too many red flags for me.

Alpha - I really wanted this one to come in without a problem, because he could have moved forward here in this spot, but the infection treatment has proved detrimental in the past and likely will here.

Hansen - A pair up might not be enough and I have big questions about this one getting 1 1/4.  If he catches his dream trip, sitting on Trinniberg\'s flank clicking off modest fractions, he\'ll be there, but I\'m nowhere near willing to bet that\'ll happen.

To me the best looking patterns remaining are Union Rags, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best, and Sabrecat.  I\'m not thrilled with Bode entering in here with a huge fig off 3 weeks rest, but I\'ll probably use him in there somewhere.

Again, this is the most ridiculous Derby I can ever remember handicapping.  I am not super confident in my analysis, but I just decided to make a stand with RS, roll with it, and hope I get my trip.   If I were you I wouldn\'t change my Derby plans from this post.

[aceriley63]

Interesting, the Oaks winner was coming off a FG prep, too, and RS was 5 wide in the SA prep and 4 wide at FG.  But all of his success has been in Cal-bred races so I have to discount him on class and he\'s been beaten by the \"other\" Baffert horse Liason twice so if you like him you\'d better include the 20 horse also in your bets.

[sekrah]

Eh, the Cal-bred stuff is irrelevant to me.  I\'m looking at his speed.  For me it comes down to the fact that only one other horse in the field was faster than this one at 2 Years Old.  That would be Union Rags.   To get 40, 50-1 on the 2nd fastest two year in the race, coming into this one off a pair seems like a good value deal to me.  It\'s a good bet that this one is going to get to 0 (or negative figs) sometime this year, and I don\'t see why it can\'t happen Saturday.

[aceriley63]

So what do you do with the 20?  Include him underneath?

[sekrah]

Why use the 20?  His best is a 5, and is coming off a bad effort.  I expect a much improved effort (he has looked fantastic this week).  I wouldn\'t be shocked a bit if he ran a 3 or 4 here, but even if he fired a 0 (pretty unlikely), he doesn\'t have tactical speed and is going to lose ground all the way around.

I am a fan of him later this summer though.  I think he could run some low figs at a big price down the road.

[aceriley63]

Baffert/Garcia is at least as good an angle as Hollendorfer/Lezcano and if you\'re going to bet a 50-1 horse over another 50-1 horse my money would be on the Baffert even if it\'s post 20 and a TG point slower.  You\'ve convinced me, the 20 is going to be in my bets underneath Gemologist.

[sekrah]

I\'m glad I could help.

[aceriley63]

Good luck tomorrow Sekrah always fun to banter on this board

[Mall]

Excellent post sekrah which sums thing up nicely.

I was leaning toward using Dullahan for the reasons explained in my earlier post, but all I heard yesterday from the CD clockers was how poorly he\'s been doing at CD, as in changing leads at the wrong time, profusely sweating during gallops, etc., so he\'s off my ticket, which leaves me, by process of elimination, with Hansen, Rousing Sermon, and Daddy Nose Best.

Given the weather and his off/distance pedigree, I guess it makes sense to substitute TCI, but whether it\'s the fact that he beat me out of a big score in the Fla Derby or the fact that he seems to need a lead he isn\'t going to get, I\'m having trouble not thinking that he\'s one of those horses I\'d be using as insurance against the idea of feeling stupid if Calvin rides the rail and does it again.
 
So, again using the process of elimination, I\'ll probably use Gemologist for no reason other than my theory than until a horse loses, it\'s hard to say for sure how good he actually is.

Good Luck.

[TreadHead]

BOL Sekrah, Im still waffling between using WTDW and El Padrino as keys, I hate the on-track reports of El Padrino, but probably should just ignore them.

The biggest bomb I\'m looking at is Prospective, who is taking the Tampa route that has been wildly successful for longshots in the past.

Any thoughts on the undercard?  I\'m loving the looks of the 5 in the 4th (based on both number power, but more breeding), 5 in the 9th (needs a small forward move but has plenty of pace), and either Brilliant Speed and/or Doubles Partner to make a big breakthru in the WR Turf.

[big18741]

Clockers last year had similar reports on Dullahan\'s work and gallops(minus the sweating of course)prior to his run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

His race there was pretty much in line with his effort in the Futurity at Keeneland.Given that I\'m gonna go say he can pair his Bluegrass or improve with an added furlong and possibly more pace to run at.

I\'d prefer the clockers loved what they were seeing the last couple weeks but then he\'d be closer to 6-1.He may end up being a much better horse on poly/grass but I\'m not convinced yet.Probably will be after today though since I\'m playing him on top.

Good Luck

[ajkreider]

Dullahan and Rousing Sermon have similar running styles and will get pretty much the same trip.  Dull has the better pattern, but if you like Dullahan in the exotics you have to play RS as well, with those odds.

[mjellish]

Strange that you guys would be hearing that.  What I have been hearing is DUL looks great in his gallops.  Not sure which clockers you are talking to.  My undertanding is his work was a little sub par and he did not seem to handle the dirt.  Tried to do everything from his back end and the ground just sort of broke away beneath him.  But as far as gallops go, I hear he looks like a good thing.

I\'ve got him figured and plan to bet him as a minor player at best.

[number5858]

You\'re moving the line Sek. Now RS is bet down to 34-1.

[ajkreider]

I expect the lines to move quite a bit from yesterday.  The pool was pretty small.  30-1 on El Padrino??  That ain\'t gonna happen.