Can't get the distance

[Boscar Obarra]

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Things might have changed had the 3 drawn post 4
> and the 4 drawn post 3. The winner was \'in the
> way\' of the 3PF all the way. Switch trips and the
> longshot probably wins.

 You\'re probably correct. Atigun was repeatedly steadied down the backside, though saving ground. Looked good brushing WIDE and with an inside trip ....

 Something tells me they should try Turf again.

[basket7777]

Looks like this board once again has becoming nothing but a social media spot.  what happened to handicapping, winning and yes sometimes even being wrong.  thats why they call it the odds must be crazy. we all don\'t agree.  but we all only need a few winners to win.

is there a site on the net that talks handicapping isstead of this crap written

i go to the track to win not to judge who the best 3 year olds are

[HP]

Home in 51 and change.  I\'m surprised they made it all the way around.  

HP

[miff]

UR received a Beyer of 96 which JB sort of stated(it\'s like TG 2.25)UR slow going in and slow coming out. I\'ll disagree though that a fig for a 1 1/2 mile race is predictive of any future race or reflective of UR\'s true ability.

Agree UR has still not run a fast race yet.

Mike

[nilocat]

I\'m pretty sure 99% of those who are posting couldn\'t get the distance either, but if we were all loaded into the starting gate one of us would eventually cross the finish line first.

[P-Dub]

basket7777 Wrote:
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> Looks like this board once again has becoming
> nothing but a social media spot.  what happened to
> handicapping, winning and yes sometimes even being
> wrong.  thats why they call it the odds must be
> crazy. we all don\'t agree.  but we all only need a
> few winners to win.
>
> is there a site on the net that talks handicapping
> isstead of this crap written
>
> i go to the track to win not to judge who the best
> 3 year olds are


We\'re also fans of the game, and enjoy talking about things other than a wager.

I guess horse racing to you is only about cashing a ticket.  In addition to cashing a ticket, many here enjoy talking about other things in the sport.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

Agree with you, but the board hasn\'t been filled with \"fan comments\" the last 24 hours.  

It has been filled with:

1.  All the 3-year olds are slow.
2.  Mike Smith screwed up.  

Aren\'t you as sick of those topics yet?  

I, for one, don\'t agree with the comment that Mike Smith had an awful Triple Crown.  He went right to front in the Derby to try and bottom out a field on a track that was speed favoring.  He almost did it.  He rated a horse beautifully on the front end in moderate fractions in the Preakness and almost held a tough tough horse.  He went to the front again, through VERY SLOw fractions in the Belmont and almost stole the race.  Agreed that the one mistake he made in the Triple Crown was leaving the rail open for Union Rags, but that is FAR from him having a \"miserable Triple Crown\" as was posted here.  

Good luck,

Jim

[kekomi]

well, to be fair, this is the first dixie union out of 720 some odd foals to win past 9 furlongs, so if you are a handicapper and betting based on the likelihood he could win past 9 furlongs, it  wasn\'t impossible, but it was improbable--most handicappers would take that bet at the right odds but not at low or even money odds, especially given that he hadn\'t won past 8.5 furlongs, and was only 1 out of 2 at that distance (unlike, say hansen, who everyone seems to think is sprinter, who is 4 for 4 at 8.5 furlongs)

but anyway, the belmont, counter intuitive as it might seem, isn\'t really a good test of stamina, or of whether a horse out ran his pedigree.  mile and a quarter races are much better stamina/pedigree-limitations tests--in the US at least.

gone wests and roman rulers have won the belmont too--thier get are mostly sprinters with poor records past 9 furlongs, and are not good even money, low odds bets past 9 f.  the reason is because the belmont is almost always won by plodders--horses who run the flattest race pace-wise.

union rags has consistently had one of the flatest pace lines of this crop. he never really accelerates. he appears to close fast, but unlike a true closer, who is actually accelerating, union rags is just keeping tempo, while the horses in front of him are decelerating.  this will win some races, like the FOY or the belmont against weak competition that is backing up to mars--but it won\'t win races against superior horses who, though decelerating, are not doing so fast enough to be caught by a horse who is running only slightly faster than they are at the end, and who fails to run the race as a whole faster then they did.  

union rags has never been able to bridge the gap against superior horses. to win the race, at some point the horse coming from behind needs to run a faster overall time than the winner--and past a mile, union rags has only done that twice, out of five attempts--so i\'d say in most cases, he is still going to be a bet against going long--especially at low odds, against quality fields. keep in mind,  he almost didn\'t do it yesterday against paynter--who had at least run one real race horse fraction in the race.

anyone who thinks this win points to union rags having a shot at winning the breeder\'s cup at santa anita in november against game on dude-caliber horses is smoking crack.

[sighthound]

I laughed.

[sighthound]

Yes, Smith moved his horse off the rail, but it was to address the challenge coming down the center of the track.  That was a good move.  It was only a mistake in retrospect, as the rail horse had more left than the other challenger.

Sorry - this should have been in the \"Mike Smith sucks!\" thread, I guess.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> Agree with you, but the board hasn\'t been filled
> with \"fan comments\" the last 24 hours.  
>
> It has been filled with:
>
> 1.  All the 3-year olds are slow.
> 2.  Mike Smith screwed up.  
>
> Aren\'t you as sick of those topics yet?  
>
> I, for one, don\'t agree with the comment that Mike
> Smith had an awful Triple Crown.  He went right to
> front in the Derby to try and bottom out a field
> on a track that was speed favoring.  He almost did
> it.  He rated a horse beautifully on the front end
> in moderate fractions in the Preakness and almost
> held a tough tough horse.  He went to the front
> again, through VERY SLOw fractions in the Belmont
> and almost stole the race.  Agreed that the one
> mistake he made in the Triple Crown was leaving
> the rail open for Union Rags, but that is FAR from
> him having a \"miserable Triple Crown\" as was
> posted here.  
>
> Good luck,
>
> Jim

Yes I am, along with the classic \"Conspiracy Thread\", which took on a life of its own.

Mike Smith has long been a favorite whipping boy of this forum, and its really easy to blame him for the loss. As you stated, he did a tremendous job in all 3 races.

Smith had that colt on the rail as they rounded the turn, and as they came out of the turn it was Paynter that drifted off the rail.  What makes people think Smith steered him that way, it was the colt\'s momentum that made him drift off. As they straighten out, UR is right on his flank, Paynter possibly has a length.

Its easy for someone to sit on their couch and pontificate on what a HOF jockey is supposed to do.  There wasn\'t that much clearance to shut the rail off. Was there enough room?? Maybe. Smith is supposed to alter the horse\'s momentum by jerking him over another path, not knowing if he has enough clearance??  He can feel UR on his flank, he doesn\'t have a HDTV like the couch people that can see that he might have enough room to shut him off. Also, Paynter was getting a little tired, don\'t horses a bit tired tend to drift out??  When Smith hit him left handed, UR was already up in the hole.  The left handed whipping didn\'t cost him.

Smith said he didn\'t want to leave it in the hand\'s of the stewards. He took the blame, because that\'s what great athletes do.

How about giving UR credit for coming up the rail and winning??

[miff]

\"Mike Smith has long been a favorite whipping boy of this forum\"


Paul,

You don\'t get it, he\'s a bum,loses ground etc. His countless accomplishments were aberrations.

Ramon Dominquez is now deified but was a bum when he banged Scrappy T left handed and almost knocked Afleet Alex down.


Mike

[Perfect Drift]

where did anyone mention Breeders Cup for Union Rags  and why would anyone compare a June 3yo with a 5 yo handicap horse like Game On Dude?