One snake to jump for Orb

[TGJB]

I\'ll stick my toe into this discussion to exactly this degree-- the spacing for Orb is different than most 3yos in this situation, and how you view the development issue is a function of how you view the effects of the addition of lasix.

[vp612]

I think the development issue is what it is, but let\'s talk spacing.He had 5 weeks coming into the derby and paired his top.Why would anyone think he will go forward on 2 weeks rest?.He could bounce and win,but I don\'t play that way.

[TGJB]

He also had 5 weeks before his previous race.

[vp612]

True, he had 5 weeks but he made big forward moves.I get the feeling not so much from you that people think they just keep going,they don\'t, and he stopped last time with the pair.MAYBE we are not talking the same thing but when I see 3,4 point moves to me that\'s a lot.

[jimbo66]

Socalman2,

I hear you, but boy do I hate that strategy.

Playing against myself with two different wagers, facing a 20%+ takeout on the exotics on each one.

Make a stand, for or against, and play accordingly.

The ONLY way to have a shot to win, is to have an opinion and be right enough beat the ridiculously high takeouts.

Playing multiple strategies with large take outs is a sure way to the poor house.  (I could argue most roads in this game to the poor house!)

Good luck,

Jim

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On the question of Orb\'s improvement....how do we
> deal with when he first got lasix?  I do not know
> the answer to this....BUT....if he was on Lasix
> all the time....i would think he is at the end of
> the line and do for a regression.  I am not sure
> whether when he got lasix should change this
> interpretation or not.  Any thoughts?


TGJB -- In a separate post, you obliquely put your toe into my query above, but did not answer it.  I find the issue that Orb ran without lasix for so many races and then got it to be a difficult variable to handle.  If this had come up 25 years ago (when you had to bleed first to be able to get lasix), I would have been much better equipped to handle it (although at that time I was using Ragozin Sheets, not yours).  The only thing I feel I can equate it to nowadays is a foreign shipper coming to the US.  However, a lot of those are on grass (as opposed to dirt).  Anyway, I can view the lasix issue in relation to Orb\'s performance in the Preakness two ways -- (1) ignore all his pre-lasix figures and only look at him after he got lasix (i.e. career starting at GP) or (2) imagine he was an overseas shipper.  

If I go with the former, then I view him as more likely to run well in the Preakness.  His two year old races had a lot of off poorly designations and he clearly is a better two turn horse than one turn horse (and only got his first taste of two turns simultaneously with first lasix).  Also, back in the day, second lasix used to be a very powerful angle (and his sheet is a good example of how that worked)...looking at the big jump up as a second lasix induced jump up, in my view, would mitigate the bounce inducing aspects of the huge amount of development. He would come across as lightly raced and only really showing any resistance level at all in the Derby (the pair up).

If you go with the latter view, you have to see a reaction (and potentially a strong one) coming.  Yes, he jumped up and established a new level, but a lot of those euros who come over and do that do regress not that long after getting the jump up.  If you look at Orb from this perspective, he looks certain to react (and potentially react enough to get excited). Although it is different, I would look at this as similar to those big jump ups we used to see going from synth to dirt for the first time.  They had the big sexy jump up, but an equally startling fall from grace soon thereafter.

[mjellish]

A question for you Vito,

This is a come from behind horse, not a front runner.  He takes measure and he gets there.  It seems to me he runs fast enough to win and that\'s about it.  He needs to be strongly ridden to finish once he\'s made the lead as he\'s shown a tendency to wait on horses once he hits the front (never a good thing).  And that probably makes him susceptible to another come from behind runner who has enough momentum to get past him before he realizes what\'s coming.  

Given that\'s how he rolls, how do you feel this impacts his numbers?  Do you think they\'ve gotten to the bottom of him?  Do you think he could have run faster in his Alwn1x at Gulfstream?  Do you think he could have run faster in his maiden win last year?  Could he have run faster before that if he had figured out what this game was all about sooner?

Or put another way, if he hadn\'t goofed off in the stretch of the Derby, could he have run faster?  Would you like his line better if he ran a -3 in the Derby?

I don\'t usually like to view an easily won race after the fact and assume the winner could have went faster if asked for more, (especially when it comes to front running horses).  As you said, they run what they run.  But I think it\'s a fair question to ask about this colt.  They did not rush him to get into the Derby.  He came in fairly fresh.  

I say buyer beware if you\'re going take a dogmatic view of his sheet.

[TGJB]

Preakness will be ROTW, and I\'ll probably be discussing Orb somewhere in there.

[SoCalMan2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Socalman2,
>
> I hear you, but boy do I hate that strategy.
>
> Playing against myself with two different wagers,
> facing a 20%+ takeout on the exotics on each one.
>
>
> Make a stand, for or against, and play
> accordingly.
>
> The ONLY way to have a shot to win, is to have an
> opinion and be right enough beat the ridiculously
> high takeouts.
>
> Playing multiple strategies with large take outs
> is a sure way to the poor house.  (I could argue
> most roads in this game to the poor house!)
>
> Good luck,
>
> Jim


Jim,

I hear you, too.  It is not a great solution.  The problem is not a fun problem to have. The only way this could really be advocated is if you happen to have some good prices in the other parts of the horizontals and can get a good price underneath in the Preakness.  In that scenario, the winning bets will hopefully be generous enough to overcome the extra betting (remember, this strategy is not a lot different from making an exacta box....in a three horse exacta box, 5 of your bets will automatically be losing...what makes it worthwhile is if the one winner is big enough to justify betting against yourself).  I will tell you one thing...if I like some nice priced horses in the other parts of the horizontals, I will be sure to go wide in the Preakness because it would make me want to jump out a window to have boxcars and then lose the bet because I did not spread in the Preakness.

SoCalMan2

[TGJB]

MJ-- independent of my opinion of the horse\'s chances, that\'s a pretty big \"Given\" to start that paragraph.

[fjmb]

Who\'s Shackleford in this years Preakness?  Someone\'s going wire to wire.

[Niall]

My 2 cents say that if JB makes it the ROTW he sees some vulnerability there somewhere... That said, historically horses that run well in the Derby are likely to run well in the Preakness. I think that you will see that here. specifically with Orb. That leaves Oxbow, sort of ... Ran ok, but man they are asking a lot. BTW, every horse I have spoken to has been unable to tell me what they have left in the tank. Barbaro comes to mind, but dont see any Bernardini\'s here. I\'m going to trust the #\'s ... Good luck all !!

[mjellish]

I don\'t really think it is.  That\'s exactly how he runs.  But it\'s really besides the point because I believe there are number of reasons that Orb will not bounce in the Preakness.  To sum it up, I believe this because:

1.) he wasn\'t all out in the derby
2.) he wasn\'t rushed to get there and came in fresh
3.) the stable took their time with him at 2, gave him a good foundation and once he figured it all out he hasn\'t lost since
4.) he typically runs only fast enough to win
5.) he\'s pretty well bred for stamina and soundness
6.) his work the other day was phenomenal
7.) if Shug is happy I am happy


That being said, he ran a -2 in the Derby and won by 2-3 lengths.  If he runs a 1 in the Preakness and wins by another 2-3 lengths, I think that goes back to my \"Given.\"  And that\'s going to make his sheet trickier to read.

[FrankD.]

MJ,

I hope all is well, it\'s been a bit.
I\'ve made some of the same points to Vito and others for awhile about this horse.
Trainer, connections, not rushed, no lasix at 2, etc...

IMHO the only play is horizontal looking for value in the undercard. I watched the video of his work on DRF; simply awesome and a step above his generation!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[covelj70]

Frank, another way to \"play\" the race is to buy some tickets for the Belmont before Saturday on StubHub.

I am long 12 clubhouse seats as of yesterday.  If Orb losses, they are going to be worth 20 cents on the dollar, if he wins, they are worth 3x what I paid!

I\'ll take any kind of action I can get!!!!!