DRF?

[moosepalm]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
>
> My point was to show that I hit at multiple
> tracks, and I could never do that if I spent all
> of my time on one track.
>
> Plenty of people on this board \"red board\",
> including some of your boys.


Here\'s the problem.  You cited your weekend success as illustrative of the value of your approach.  Are you that successful every weekend?  Fine, if you are, but is it because of your multi-track approach, or because you\'re just a really sharp analyst?  

Basically, your point could have been summarized by \"different strokes for different folks.\"  The examples really don\'t prove anything unless you provide a longitudinal study.  Absent that, one can reasonably infer that there are also times when you lose at multiple tracks, so what\'s the point?  Everybody here hits good ones, or they wouldn\'t be here, or in the game at all.  You\'re certainly welcome to disclose your scores to your heart\'s content, but the blowback will be inevitable, and won\'t be headed off by a pre-emptive \"at the risk of being labeled a red boarder.\"

[Holybull]

I\'m just a lurker on this board.

I enjoy most of your posts, P-Dub.  Especially your love for \"Moneymaker\" Mike Smith.  But to be fair, your tendency to point out bombs you hit after the fact is nothing new.

[richiebee]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
>
> My point was to show that I hit at multiple
> tracks, and I could never do that if I spent all
> of my time on one track.
>
> Plenty of people on this board \"red board\",
> including some of your boys.

Dub:

Who are \"my boys\"? You aren\'t one of \"my boys\"? Who\'s going to take me to a San
Jose A\'s game if I ever get to California? (\"Moneyball\" fast becoming one of my
favorite baseball movies, right up there with \"The Natural\" and \"Fear Strikes
Out\"; \"This is what losing sounds like\" one of my favorite scenes.)

Posting picks v Redboarding, an opinion. To me Redboarding is absolutely
worthless, like an end zone celebration in football, unless you can do it in a
creative or entertaining manner. I generally disdain end zone celebrations, but
had to admire Cowboy linebacker Thomas Henderson for being the first one to spike
the ball through the uprights after returning an INT for a TD (know Tom Landry
must have loved this). Also enjoyed the great \"Roll Six\" end zone celebration,
when the team members (do not remember which team) knelt in a circle and
simulated a crap game, using the football instead of dice.

Personally, when I post picks or do any kind of analysis on the TG board, I am
looking to learn from other posters. Lets say I analyze a race and the crux of my
analysis is that I never like to use a favorite in a bottom level state bred
maiden claimer on the grass (we will be seeing plenty of these), even if said
favorite has a TG edge. For lack of a better word, that\'s an opinion, and what I
am looking for is a dialogue which might lead to the conclusion (for example)
that bottom level state bred maiden claimer sprints are much more volatile
(chaotic) than the same type of race when they are run over a route of ground.

[FrankD.]

Richie,

Will you adopt me so I can be one of your boy\'s?

For Love Of The Game, Kevin Costner, an awesome baseball movie if you haven\'t seen it.

Stay over until Tuesday one of your weekends and we\'ll do Cooperstown and have our own induction this year!

[Boscar Obarra]

Speaking of red boards, it would be a lot more realistic to talk about your net ODDS return when you hit a large exacta than only that winning payoff.

 Pros hit big exactas all day and twice on Sunday. They also buy 20 combos or more to do it.

 Now if you\'re punching a cold exacta that pays 200, then we want to know it and pay homage.

[Tavasco]

I get real satisfaction in spending hours on a card. Analyzing a race and then again the next morning. Developing a certain intimacy with the data. Finding the hidden value horse. The entrant that begs the question why is this horse in this race? Watching the odds validate my opinions and focusing on the anomalies at race time. Identifying a horse where the public\'s lack of interest is exaggerated. DRF PP formats lend themselves to a time consuming analysis for those who think factors other than final time and pattern matter.

The problem is one card may not present many/any major opportunities? and waiting twenty minutes.

Alternatively, culling many cards and many races for high priced overlays using simpler considerations or faster tools is also a viable approach with different rewards. It\'s plain fun when you look up to see a 30/1 horse run in and key a big exotic or you recognize the number and then hope its the right track, because you\'re spred all over. Not to mention the mystery of when your balance goes up $500 and you you don\'t know which race you won. Problem is when no high priced horses run in no profits.

An artisan vs an assembly line. Business folks don\'t care much for art anymore than artisans care much for business. It\'s nice the sport can offer us both.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I generally
> disdain end zone celebrations, but
> had to admire Cowboy linebacker Thomas Henderson
> for being the first one to spike
> the ball through the uprights after returning an
> INT for a TD (know Tom Landry
> must have loved this). Also enjoyed the great
> \"Roll Six\" end zone celebration,
> when the team members (do not remember which team)
> knelt in a circle and
> simulated a crap game, using the football instead
> of dice.
>

I think this was Harold Carmichael with the Eagles, if memory serves me.

[Rick B.]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I get real satisfaction in spending hours on a
> card. Analyzing a race and then again the next
> morning. Developing a certain intimacy with the
> data. Finding the hidden value horse. The entrant
> that begs the question why is this horse in this
> race?

> An artisan vs an assembly line.

It *is* possible to spend too much time thinking about
something. \"Analysis Paralysis\" is very real, and you
guys that are trying to split the handicapping atom
must have boatloads of extra time on your hands.

I spend less time on handicapping now, and far more
time thinking about the betting side: is this card
more apt to produce profits from horizontal betting,
or do I need to cherry-pick a race or two, and forget
the rest? Does a win bet make sense, or do I need to
be in the exacta? This takes minutes, not hours.

Of primary importance: am I getting the correct price,
or higher? If not, all of those Hours of Handicapping
were for nothing. It has nothing to do with \"artisan
vs. assembly line\": if I can\'t find the value horse
in a race in 10 minutes or less (usually FAR less),
either I\'m wrong, or there is no such animal to be had.
(These days, it is quite often the latter.)

To each his own, but if I had to spend four hours on a
card to find winning bets, hell, I\'d just put in more
billable time on the job...where the money is guaranteed.

[Topcat]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I get real satisfaction in spending hours on a
> card. Analyzing a race and then again the next
> morning. Developing a certain intimacy with the
> data. Finding the hidden value horse. The entrant
> that begs the question why is this horse in this
> race? Watching the odds validate my opinions and
> focusing on the anomalies at race time.
> Identifying a horse where the public\'s lack of
> interest is exaggerated. DRF PP formats lend
> themselves to a time consuming analysis for those
> who think factors other than final time and
> pattern matter.
>
> The problem is one card may not present many/any
> major opportunities? and waiting twenty minutes.
>
> Alternatively, culling many cards and many races
> for high priced overlays using simpler
> considerations or faster tools is also a viable
> approach with different rewards. It\'s plain fun
> when you look up to see a 30/1 horse run in and
> key a big exotic or you recognize the number and
> then hope its the right track, because you\'re
> spred all over. Not to mention the mystery of when
> your balance goes up $500 and you you don\'t know
> which race you won. Problem is when no high priced
> horses run in no profits.
>
> An artisan vs an assembly line. Business folks
> don\'t care much for art anymore than artisans care
> much for business. It\'s nice the sport can offer
> us both.


      Like to perform the broad run-through (B) (time permitting), followed by a sustained wallow in A.   A tends to reap the superior percentage result, especially when you\'re dealing with a track with which you\'re already thoroughly familiar . . . JM two pence . . .

[jjambrose]

I love BRIS\' pace, breeding and trainer stats but their speed figures are just not reliable.  Surprised they don\'t try to improve them.  Would be the best general pp\'s on the market.  Could use them and TGraphs and have what you need.