Wicked Strong

[miff]

Moose,


I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in how the horse performs in a 20 horse field, carrying more weight than ever and travelling further than ever.

Mike

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
>
> I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is
> inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in
> how the horse performs in a 20 horse field,
> carrying more weight than ever and travelling
> further than ever.
>
> Mike

Thanks.  Obviously wasn\'t clear to me, originally.

[richiebee]

Again, using statistics showing a trainer\'s shipping strike rate only
partially useful at the Derby.

In most cases, when Jimmy Jerkens ships, he is putting a horse in a van,
sending them to Parx or Monmouth, racing them, putting them back on a van,
and returning to Belmont. We are saying that JJ is 11% under this scenario
and lets make Rocky happy and point out that the odds of all runners in the
sample should be examined.

Sending a horse to another track for in this case 5 days and getting him
acclimated, schooling him, keeping him focused for what will be a very
demanding race, thats different than what used to show up as \"Ship/Race
Return\" on the invoices from the horse van companies.

The trainer who ships around the country for stakes more frequently and
successfully than any other is the same man man who is what? 1/40 in the
Derby?

[louisvilleguy1111]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
>
> I was referring specifically to the Derby as it is
> inferred that JJ\'s ship win % will be a factor in
> how the horse performs in a 20 horse field,
> carrying more weight than ever and travelling
> further than ever.
>
> Mike


Miff, EXACTLY if the dude ships at a 11% rate for reg races/stakes the KY Derby is the biggest race of any trainers career that plays a bigger role based on that stat in my view. The Derby is the monster of all monsters here this guy can\'t win shipping for races and now he will become a genius shipping to the derby? All your doing is digging a bigger hole for yourself. I am sure your a very intelligent guy and prob a really nice guy as well but your simply wrong on this subject it does matter what the trainers stats are when it comes to shipping. Look at how many people are thinking what a mistake it is that Sherman isn\'t shipping CC to CD early and working him. Why? Because it matters...

[miff]

Lou,

You are trying to toss WS not based on his proven ability/figs/odd vs probabilty of winning,but solely in favor of the trainers ship win %.

Welcome to the pools.

Mike

[louisvilleguy1111]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lou,
>
> You are trying to toss WS not based on his proven
> ability/figs/odd vs probabilty of winning,but
> solely in favor of the trainers ship win %.
>
> Welcome to the pools.
>
> Mike

I have many reasons to toss him for the win the trainer is just icing on the cake, thanks for the welcome wagon but I been a part of the pools longer then you think. You have to get the derby down to 4 horses or less on the win end to really score unless you love to invest way to money trying to chase the gimmicks. Or you absolutely love a horse. My thinking is based solely on odds/stats and ability nothing more. Second choice in the pools, stats LIKE trainer stats as well as the horses numbers/stats and also ability. You really think the first thing I look at is trainer stats when I look at contenders in any race, lol.... Wow give a guy on a TG forum board a little more credit then that!

[miff]

Lou,

My bad, thought your toss was solely based on JJ\'s ship/win %.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Mr. C.
I\'ll be playing several tickets which include Wicked Strong.
Since he appears to be a head case, I foresee myself holding my breath until he gets loaded in the gate.
The one shipper of JJ that I recall was Elusive Quality in the \'09 Classic at Santa Anita.
I was in the walking ring watching the horse do a slow meltdown, and by the time they got ready to load the horse refused and after several minutes was scratched.
On Saturday WS faces a much larger crowd and a much longer viewing period than EQ did at the Breeders Cup. (Same dilemma for all 20 horses).
If the horse starts to meltdown and becomes hard to load, I give him zero chance to run well.
I\'m playing 75% he melts down, and 25% he doesn\'t.  Not a very strong endorsement, and thus, a smaller key wager on him is the smart move on my part.
Good luck to all.

[covelj70]

Small,

Quality Road was with Pletcher and had been for a while by that point but I get your big picture point

Alot of people are making a very big deal out of the horse being a head case

I didn\'t see any of that on friday but obviously a different scene next weekend

Gonna be interesting.

[jimbo66]

That was a son of Elusive Quality, Quality Road.  Not Elusive Quality.

No horse is 75% to melt down.  And if they were, you would need way longer odds than you will get on Wicked Strong, to even consider a horse that you truly believe is 75% to melt down.  Hmm...  If he is 10% to win the race, if he runs under normal conditions, and is only 25% to \"not melt\", that gives him 2.5% to win.  You would need 40-1 to make the bet.......

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
Thanks for the thoughts but if I were to respond as I\'d like, it would require me to make my second trip to church today and do yet another confession.
I\'m staying with MY opinion the horse is 75% likely to meltdown. I\'ll already have my tickets punched for the race and be home minus the insanity of the local simulcast facility.
WS is only 1 of 6 horses that I look to be the winner.  I\'ll keep those 6 to myself so I don\'t have to defend my reasoning.
Good luck with your 3/1 shot.

[jimbo66]

I am actually spending my entire bankroll today.  Because I think it is 75 percent the Aztecs were right about the world ending, but just got the math wrong and the world ends Tuesday, prior to the derby.  

It is MY opinion, and I am staying with it.  No facts will stand in my way.

[smalltimer]

See that\'s the beautiful thing Jimbo.  I\'m still spending the money I made on your favorite Derby horse, Giacomo, so I get to waste my money on any personal opinion I have. Feel free to take some of my Derby money in the pools.    

What is your plan B if Chrome somehow draws the 1 whole?  Does it change anything in your wager, or is he just be that much better than this group? That\'s not a smart ass question, I\'m just curious if you think he towers over the field like a Big Brown. Obviously, I have CC as one of the horses that can win, so my pain will be pretty mild if CC does win.

I\'ve never headed into a Derby with the numerous things that can and most likely will happen before they cross the finish line without having a Plan B.

Would I like WS or any of the other 5 horses I think could win if any of them  draw the one hole?  Of course not.
I look forward to your response cause them I\'m done sparring with you.

[jimbo66]

Small timer

I have no issue with wicked strong as \"one of the ones\".  I agree with u that he is a contender.  Was sparring with u over the silly exaggeration of him being 75 percent to \"lose it\" prior to the race.  No horse is ever 75 percent to do that.  It is a crazy exaggeration.

This a tough betting race for me.  I like to look at the oaks derby double, the oaks/wood ford reserve / derby pick 3. And of course the pick 4 ending in the derby.  And I hate betting favorites in any race, let alone the derby.  That said, u have an oaks horse that is as fast as all the derby horses and lays over the field off her fairgrounds numbers, then u have wise Dan in the wood ford reserve.  And s solid favorite in my mind in California chrome.  How do play that sequence.  I can\'t play chalk/chalk/chalk pick 3.  A stupid bet.  U have to pick a horse to attack.  

My plan right now is to probably attack the oaks filly and hope that either the big races knocked her out or that she is just better st fairgrounds.  Will use a couple horses there against her, stand with wise dan in the wood ford and then press California chrome, using savers on a few in the derby.  Maybe wicked strong, Hoppertunity and maybe commanding curve as a bomb.

Good luck.

[phil23]

Richie - been thinking the exact same thing as far as the read on WS. A slight two point regression (no blow up due to trainer\'s on fire and hating gulf) just like IH off his big one. They\'re even coming from basically the same jump up point.

The real question for me is Intense Holiday. What the hell is this horse going to run?

On the one hand, his THORO pattern is bloody awful. Per the 2012 seminar, and updated for the last 2 years, a horse coming in on a TOP and then a (OFF or X) race is 0% / 15% / 36% / 49%.  Which is even worse than the normal bad patterns for derby. Especially as JB said in 2012, for new tops.

BUT...does IH really need to run a new top? If he get\'s a decent trip, probably not. So 15% to pair. Combine that with the fact that by all accounts he might be the ONLY horse at CD right now who looks like he is going over the surface/acclimating well and maybe he\'s got a shot at it.

Also...he will have had 5 weeks (not 4 or 3) since his last one and 10 weeks since the big one.

If this was a normal race in NY for a May 3yo, I think, given that TAP\'s usually run their #\'s he\'d be massively likely to pair his top. But it\'s not, it\'s the Derby WITH Testing...neither a TAP forte.

His action down the Fair Grounds stretch last time (the \"bi\" where he basically threw himself into the rail) is a huge negative too, and of course he wasn\'t very fast at 2 so less of a base to support his big one.

Is price the decider? Right now you can get 20\'s on him generally. Derby Day he\'ll probably (does seem like he\'s the most likely workout steam horse....though in such a public pool how much that will be a factor is up in the air) be more like 13\'s.

I mean if he\'s really 15% then 13\'s is a good bet. But adding in the \"bi\" and I think he\'s probably closer to just 10% to pair. So 13\'s would still be an overlay but only just.

For me, this horse is the toughest read of the bunch. Easy to see the big jump ups going back, or the good paired tops patterns pairing again but this guy...