Wicked Strong

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am leaning to excluding WS from the Horizontal
> Derby Herd.
>
> Isn\'t WS what some would call a \"one number\"
> horse? All of the attention on
> this colt is based on his Wood win/big new top.
> None of his other 5 lifetime
> races would give him a chance to be in the top 12
> in this Derby field. Hard
> for me to take this one as a second favorite.
>
> WS 10/63/63/11/7/neg 1/??
> IH 82/63/63/62/62/neg 02/2
>
> Kapeech? yes its two individual runners trained by
> different individuals, but
> would not be surprised if WS retreated a couple of
> TG points in the Derby,
> much the way that IH regressed after his big
> forward move in the Risen Star.
>
> Yes the Wood # was big. Yes WS seems to have come
> out of the race well. No
> there is nothing on WS TG sheet that gives me any
> confidence in WS as the
> second fave, nothing that makes me feel he repeats
> the Wood performance.
>
> We Miss Artie update: Worked so sharply this AM
> TAP considering trying to
> talk Ramsey out of running WMA in the Derby. Good
> luck with that!


Do you give any credence to the various reasons why he didn\'t run better previously?? I believe JC mentioned this.  Or, does the big jump up make that point moot?  The pattern, regardless of why he ran poorly, screams regression.

And, is it possible he regresses a bit and still wins??

[richiebee]

P-Dub:

I think the \"bounce and still win\" question is more applicable to the Oaks
favorite.

Part of my point with WS is that he has no other # close to his Wood #, which
makes it difficult to think about how far he could regress.

I will throw out something I do not know if it has been discussed: Most of the
high profile attrition on this years Derby trail/Prep tour has been in the
Florida bracket: Cairo, Constitution, Honor Code and talented fringe players
Top Billing and Tonalist have all fallen by the wayside.

GAR was not sharp in his most recent work.

Why so much attrition in this one bracket?

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
Sounds like a plan. Good luck.

[boston]

CALIFORNIA CHROME
    +285
 
    HOPPERTUNITY
    +1017

    WICKED STRONG
    +1217

    DANZA
    +1017

    RIDE ON CURLIN
    +1418

[boston]

This is the sharpest book in the world.  First book up with nearly every event - so they are the original line maker.

After over a week of betting they have WS as the 4th betting choice.  Which means very few of their sharp bettors like WS.

[phil23]

Cris is one of the sharpest in the world...for Sports. Not racing. And they were by no means the first up with derby odds.  Just because they have sharp players for sports doesn\'t mean they know a thing about Derby.

[TGJB]

The British books have it somewhat different. If you go to Oddschecker.com you can see a list of what the various outfits are offering on the various horses.

[boston]

I look there often.  Notice the size of wager they accept.  The largest is 200 pound.  The offshores that I deal with mostly are dealing with U.S. sports and U.S. bettors.  Most of their clients are New York based.  Which make the odds on WS even more curious.

[boston]

Who else was up last Thursday?  And they were taking $1000 wager from the first wager.

[Ollie]

Wicked Strong sustained a hind-end gash, probably in the starting gate, and Castellano had to dis-mount, but nothing absolutely certain where, and when it occurred. They only saw it after the race. It could help to explain his no-show performance.

I think the way he has shown some dramatic florishes, albeit with some greenness thrown in, it would not surprise me in the least, if he exceeds any number he\'s already put in, including the Wood race.

[miff]

Back to the shipping trainer thing, CC just boarded a flight from Cali to CD. Friend who saw him was not certain if he was wearing a pressure suit or a smock cover.Vicious weather around KY and more than one horse who got roughed up on an air flight performed poorly in the race.

One Derby horse that flew from NY reportedly wore a pressure suit.Gotta wonder if it all means anything.

....info overload and minutia time.

Mike

[TGJB]

I hear that. Overload and minutiae time indeed.

All this work for something that only takes a couple of minutes. What does that remind me of...

[miff]

\"What does that remind me of...\"


Good one. If a few of the fast ones X on Sat, it could be another year for a slug.....ugh!

[alydar61]

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch 30m

Wicked Strong looked very distracted galloping this a.m. especially in both passes coming to the finish line, also got a little hot.

[miff]

WS\'s behavioral antics precede him.Would not let that change my mind about him. His demeanor on Sat,another story.