Wicked Strong

[louisvilleguy1111]

When it comes to Medal Count, I think any one of forteen horses could hit the board in this race and looking at Romans record in the Derby he thinks this horse is without a doubt his best shot at a Derby to date, and I think that is saying something cause other then his first starter ever in the Derby (Sharp Humor) his record is solid being right there in the final furlong. I def would not dismiss this horse, and would take him over DWF any day at CD. That\'s just my opinion and I know it means nothing lol but it\'s what makes this game great!!

[louisvilleguy1111]

I have always thought beyer numbers are really strong when you use them for fillies that are age 3 on the grass. Don\'t have stats to back it up but seemed like when I used them back in the day before I found bris and tg, that they were really solid in those situations other than that they are without a doubt the last numbers I would look at before I went to the windows.

[ajkreider]

As you say there are lots in here with a shot to hit the board, and you can\'t play them all.  I will let Medal Count beat me.  Can\'t put money on a horse that, in two dirt tries at two tracks, struggled to get within 10 lengths of the winner.

[louisvilleguy1111]

He broke his maiden impressively on the dirt. No LASIK in CA and yes his race at GP wasn\'t good but it\'s not like he finished last lol but it\'s just an opinion throw out Romans at CD at your own risk, I just know he isn\'t the worse horse in the race and I would have to use him.

[jbrown007]

I think that you read my post and focused solely on BEYER speed figure and nothing else.
Thorograph numbers are hands down the absolute best tool in every day handicapping.
The Kentucky derby is a different animal and to disregard other figures is a major mistake. Tgjb always mentions in his derby seminar who is the most likely to pair up there top number in the 20 horse field and that is the absolute most important factor in figuring out the derby winner. The easiest way to pair up a number is to get a similar trip and that is highly unlikely for horses that may have to go 4-8 wide and go extra distance etc. Chrome may not be running negatives on the thorograph but he is very likely to get an ideal trip.

You also mentioned his numbers aren\'t the fastest which is fine but what is your explanation on his poor break and being pulled up before finish line. Do you not factor that into your handicapping? It 100% effects all figures including thoro/beyer. Correct me if I\'m wrong

[miff]

WS trainer James Jerkens,5 for 10 at AQU last few weeks

[big18741]

Some confusion regarding the distance of todays work for Medal Count.

Romans and some clockers had him working 5f\'s with a gallop out of 6f\'s in 113 then 7 in 126

Welsh and Equibase had the work at 6f\'s with a gallop out to 7f\'s

At 5f\'s his fastest 1/8th was the last one.

All of my tickets will have either Medal Count or Wicked Strong on top.
Honest to fast pace helps both,distance helps both.

I give a slight edge to Medal Count for homecourt where he trained much of his two year old year season.

[jimbo66]

Saying hard spun had a mildly successful campaign is silly.  (Picking a less combative word)

Won grade 1 races going long on dirt, long on poly, sprinting on dirt and showed heart and courage in doing so.   His game kings bishop race was special.  Would have been the derby winner were it not for a great ride by Calvin and multiple jockeys giving up position such that the Red Sea parted for street sense.

He was a very very good horse.

[TGJB]

Yeah, been keeping an eye on that myself. Which raises multiple questions, cause even if you believe the worst, not clear what it means for the Derby. Would love to know exactly what \"Out Of Competition Testing\" was done, where, and when.

And if test results were published, we would...

[louisvilleguy1111]

NY is a long way from KY and the Derby. Once again if WS wins the Derby I have no problems with that but Jimmy shipping outside of NY and winning Graded Stakes is a concern for me is all I am saying. But I would think the horse has to be coming at the end, the question is will his run come to late?

[miff]

Seriously? Didn\'t WS ship from Florida to NY to win the Wood?What relevance does the trainer of a horse have to do with shipping?

WS vanning to CD as is Uncle Sigh to try to avoid hydration problems some trainers feel is possible with air shipping.

[pizzalove]

JImbo,

I said mildly successful triple crown series.  Dont worry about the less hostile words just read it correctly.  Yeah he was a very good horse.  Most derby starters are.  Big news.  He almost stole the derby when nothing went with him and allowed him to almost steal it on an off track.  In the belmont that was a very slow pace if they had turned him loose immediately I beleive he would have stole that one.  Had hard spun encountered the speed that I am hoping this derby will have he would have collapsed.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Shipping 11%
Graded Stakes 8%

Once again sure the horse will run good and can possibly win the race but at second choice no thanks for me betting him to win. I will use him in the gimmicks though. Just an opinion nothing more.

[louisvilleguy1111]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Seriously? Didn\'t WS ship from Florida to NY to
> win the Wood?What relevance does the trainer of a
> horse have to do with shipping?
>
> WS vanning to CD as is Uncle Sigh to try to avoid
> hydration problems some trainers feel is possible
> with air shipping.


Shipping to NY from FL is shipping that\'s called coming home! Big difference shipping from NY (home)to somewhere. I posted the stats so if I am wrong I am wrong, I would have no problems hoping WS wins the triple crown if he does win the Derby.

[miff]

Unfiltered stats make nice wallpaper.My point is that certain horses are problems when they ship anywhere,other horses ok with anything.

FWIW,WS is a bit of a head case, that\'s the barns only concern, otherwise ready,will work a half at CD.