Start the drumbeat

[smithkent]

On why CC can\'t win the Belmont

Yes, visually he had to work more this time, since SI moved early

But that horse WANTS to win, a quality that isn\'t easily quantitated

[TGJB]

I can name 13 others who also did since 1978.

[P-Dub]

So you\'re saying all horses have the exact same desire to win??  Just asking.

[TGJB]

I\'m saying horses that win the first two legs of the TC are treated like more than racehorses. For three weeks.

[miff]

If all the potential Belmont staters decide to go, CC will face the toughest bunch yet.

Saw him more tired coming off after this race which was fast.CC made a couple of runs while being fully extended this time.Belmont can be epic if CC is tackled by Tonalist,Wicked Strong, Danza,Commissioner as they all act like 12f types.

Guessing Rosario rides Tonalist over Ride On Curlin,if he goes.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m saying horses that win the first two legs of
> the TC are treated like more than racehorses. For
> three weeks.

Got it, fair enough.

[TreadHead]

I\'ve got such mixed feelings about it, I definitely respect what he has done the past 2 races and thought the \"slow\" tag he was getting for his Derby from most others was ridiculous.

But even with TG giving him a new top, it wasn\'t yet a negative number and seemed to make the achievement less impressive than Big Brown, Barbaro, even Rachel, etc.

I\'m not sure if he ran a negative number today, you can be sure all the other folks who didn\'t seem to consider the wind or the track at the Derby are going to score this race as a huge improvement.  While visually impressive, the fact that Ride On Curlin was the one pressuring him coming for home (after Social Inclusion likely left a lot of his race on the track during the warmup) doesn\'t exactly speak volumes about the field he beat today.

I\'m not sure what the deal with Kid Cruz was, not having the published workouts (was that ever explained?), but with he and SI off their games today, ARod having the trip problem and probably not wanting this distance anyway, this field he beat was just a bunch of lifetime 2s.

But I am impressed with what he\'s been able to do so far.  He won at Churchill despite apparently not liking the surface at all.  He won here sitting off a much more honest pace and repelling what looked like it might be a serious contender entering the stretch.  He does everything right and seems to create his own luck. With so many of the horses facing him in the Belmont that can run negative numbers being closers, if he has one more zero in him he just might pull it off.

[PapaChach]

Tough to say given three of last four coming in were turf races, but Sir Barton went in 1:43 and 3, Preakness went in 1:54 and 4. On paper, that looks good, difference for final 1/8th being 11 and change between the two, but like I said, a long time went by between those two races, and would guess in all these big races, conditions might be more likely to change as it\'s closer to sundown, but again, all a guess and will let the experts such as TGJB figure that out. Certainly don\'t think anything behind him missed the w because of trouble - didn\'t look that close to me, he pretty much ran away and hid and won it, again, in the neighborhood of the 1/4 pole.

Couple of things come to mind.

One is that this horse seems a little more able to make his own trip than a lot of the others who have been in this position, and in a race like the Belmont that would seem to be a positive.

Second is that years (I think) ago TGJB (I think, again, let\'s not hold my memory to court-of-law standards after long day of drinking and gambling) suggested that if we did someday get a Triple Crown winner, it would likely be from something that hadn\'t run especially fast all along, I\'d guess the theory being you\'d need a horse who hadn\'t run the sort of monstrous numbers that would leave it vulnerable in early June.

Again, no idea what 1:54 and 4 means vs. today\'s actual track speed, certainly possible it\'s a knock-out number in the negative 1 or more range, but if it\'s another 0 or so, I\'d think this horse might be more likely to pull it off than all us T-generates aching to double-fist against him at Belmont care to believe.

[TreadHead]

My problem with CC getting a -1 is that means ROC got at least a -1, maybe even a -2.  I\'m not saying that\'s impossible for him to have that large an improvement, just would be pretty unusual off that kind of pattern.

But yes, it likely is much better for his TC prospects if he did just do something like pair a zero, there may be something left in the tank.

[TGJB]

CC reminds me of Real Quiet, heavily raced, got good late at two. As to Chach\'s point, Privman once said something similar about Funny Cide-- he can make his own trip.

[PapaChach]

Yeah, given 3 and change seems to be about it for Ride On Curlin agree it\'s tough to see him at 0 or less here off short rest, unless you think the Derby chaos cost him significantly, but that seems a reach...on the other hand I keep thinking the raw 1:54 and 4 seems pretty quick and he was at least 2 wide all the way around....

[TGJB]

Given the gaps it\'s likely top two ran zeros, issue will be whether it\'s better.

[rhagood]

Funny Cide was rank and over the top, he ran off in his last 3 furlong work days before the Belmont, was washy in the post parade, would not relax for Santos and was on the engine for the race. Credible third and behind a rested and bred for the distance Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted who went on the capture the Travers that year. Look for any any bloom of the rose for CC as a tell.

As an aside, just watched the NBC broadcast replay after being at Gulfstream Park today.  Did anyone notice in the lead out form the infield CC was sporting major wood.  No kidding, maybe it was the filly in the race that got his attention.
The last time I saw that was in 1981 at Oaklawn Park, the horse was names Belle\'s Ruler and ran third to Temperance Hill in the Razorback Handicap.  My buddies with me at the time got a good chuckle and we still have a laugh over it to this day.
My wife says a good name for a racehorse would be \"Morning Wood\".  Don\'t know if that would get past the Jockey Club but \"Drop Your Drawers\" did so one never knows.

[Boscar Obarra]

Rewatched the Preakness.

 CC didn\'t break a sweat.

 CC walked back during the post race interviews like he had just left his stall for a stroll.

 If nothing untoward  happens in the next few weeks, he might be the one.

[joemama]

Thanks for pointing that out.  My wife said CC did the same thing in the paddock at Churchill and it was pointed out verbally by the commentators. Looks like he certainly has a career after racing.