Nasal Strips

[P-Dub]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> Players should have all information available to
> them, then they can make informed decisions and
> wager on their opinion.
> How do they expect a site like TG to produce the
> very best numbers possible if not all info is
> available to them?  Symbols like bo, bi, tu, etc
> all play a part in the decision to play a horse or
> not.
> IF the information on Chrome back in December
> indicated that he had a shoe change and an added
> nasal strip and THEN the horse jumped up and
> continued to run great at least there would be
> reasons to think he might just keep on running
> well.
> When changes are made to a horse and the
> handicappers are unaware of it and then the horse
> wins and you find out LATER, that\'s what pisses me
> off.  
> In other words, put the info out there and if I
> make a poor decision that\'s just too bad for me.
> JB, you are exactly right.  The more guesswork
> there is the weaker the opinion the smaller the
> wagering dollars.  
> I think sekrah, or someone on the board said the
> strip hasn\'t or doesn\'t make a difference in
> horses.  Probably 90% of the time that\'s true,
> except when it isn\'t true like Chrome. If it
> weren\'t a big deal, the connections wouldn\'t have
> made the stand they did with NY earlier.  They
> know it helps THIS horse.


We don\'t know if the strip made the difference.

Didn\'t someone post that he had a change in shoes before the huge jump??

[smalltimer]

Paul,
My understanding is the farrier made the shoe change without even telling the connections.
The shoe change and the nasal strip made Chrome a new horse, so maybe a combination of both changes.
Peace out man!!

[bellsbendboy]

I would offer that Lasix, blinkers and Espinoza made a bigger difference than the nasal strip!  bbb

[smalltimer]

bbb,
I looked at Chrome\'s entries, the result charts and there is no mention of a shoe change or nasal strip.
I did notice that Chrome ran the first 3 starts of his career with No Lasix or blinkers but with front wraps on.
He ADDED Lasix and blinkers in his 4th career start at Dmr on 7/13 with a win, then he had 2 straight losses, one at Dmr on 9/4 and another loss at SA on 11/1.
I also noticed between his last race on Nov 1 at Santa Anita and the next out where he whistled, he did have 5 workouts. Its fair to say the improvement began during that period between Nov 1 and the Dec 22 race where he crushed the field.  Espinoza also rode him the first time following the workouts.  I personally think Espinoza has made a huge difference in the way the horse is now being ridden.  
Logic suggests the shoes and the strip made a difference because before the shoes and strip were added the horse was not running that well.

[sekrah]

The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign.  They\'ve been known to get faster at that time.  Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change helped, but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points.  That\'s outrageous.

[smalltimer]

The shoes changed his stride to 110 degrees.

[sekrah]

So how often do horses with shoe changes make 8 point jumps?

[TMW]

sekrah Wrote:
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> The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign.
> They\'ve been known to get faster at that time.
> Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change helped,
> but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points.  That\'s
> outrageous.


I don\'t know what made CC improve so much but trainers know for a long time (even before they race) that they have a special horse and Art has trained thousands of horses. Art\'s box at Del Mar is directly behind mine and he told me and others that he did not understand why CC ran so poorly the day he ran 6th in a race -- \"because he was REALLY good.\" He followed that one up with a 6th at SA and then went on his current tear. I think if you were to ask him what moved CC up he would just say he was good before and just continued to get better and better.

I personally don\'t believe there was any elixir -- be it shoes, nasal strip or anything else that moved him up. But, that is what makes this challenging and fun.

[TGJB]

First of all, how would anyone know, since we don\'t get the data.

But what we have here is a horse who jumped way up AND STAYED THERE. No bounces. If someone can show me other examples of horses who had established a level (meaning that a previous effort had set them back), jumped that much to a GI level, and stayed there, without a trainer change or the addition of Lasix, please show me. The only one I can think of is Cigar (who had run on dirt earlier in his career), and I\'ve been told recently Allday was treating him (can\'t confirm).

Let me put it this way. If CC was running without the strip in the Belmont I would make the biggest bet of my life, without any hesitation, throwing him out of the supers.

[sekrah]

TMW Wrote:
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> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The horse was late in his 2 year old campaign.
> > They\'ve been known to get faster at that time.
> > Don\'t know how much the shoes+strip change
> helped,
> > but I\'ll bet you it\'s not worth 8 points.
> That\'s
> > outrageous.
>
>
> I don\'t know what made CC improve so much but
> trainers know for a long time (even before they
> race) that they have a special horse and Art has
> trained thousands of horses. Art\'s box at Del Mar
> is directly behind mine and he told me and others
> that he did not understand why CC ran so poorly
> the day he ran 6th in a race -- \"because he was
> REALLY good.\" He followed that one up with a 6th
> at SA and then went on his current tear. I think
> if you were to ask him what moved CC up he would
> just say he was good before and just continued to
> get better and better.
>
> I personally don\'t believe there was any elixir --
> be it shoes, nasal strip or anything else that
> moved him up. But, that is what makes this
> challenging and fun.


Agree 100%.  Some people will just try to find any absurd reasoning to explain things, except what is clearly obvious to the rest of us.

[TMW]

You are correct in that we don\'t get the data and probably should but these horse guys (trainers not necessarily owners) are really smart -- just look at the intricacies of drug usage -- and nasal strips are anything but that and most trainers think they are unimportant and cost essentially nothing. Knowledge is power and i get that. I am not against obtaining the information but let me ask you a question. If SI has a nasal strip for the first time in the Belmont, what will you do? Jumps up anywhere near 8 points and will win.

[miff]

So Nasal Strips are keeping CC sound? Resilient? Tendons tight? Not carrying heat anywhere?......comon!

[TGJB]

First of all, you\'re assuming nasal strips make the same difference for all horses, and that\'s as likely as for Lasix. By which I mean it\'s not. And SI was already running GI figures. CC was not. Not even close.

Second, I can guarantee I\'ve had a lot more experience working with trainers than you have, and I totally disagree. The best ones are almost always smart enough to admit they don\'t know much.

[TGJB]

There are a lot of sound horses who don\'t run fast enough to win GI\'s.

[TMW]

TGJB Wrote:
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> First of all, you\'re assuming nasal strips make
> the same difference for all horses, and that\'s as
> likely as for Lasix. By which I mean it\'s not. And
> SI was already running GI figures. CC was not. Not
> even close.
>
> Second, I can guarantee I\'ve had a lot more
> experience working with trainers than you have,
> and I totally disagree. The best ones are almost
> always smart enough to admit they don\'t know much.


\"Guarantee\"? I have kind of a lot...

I thought I was actually complimenting you and the usage of your figures versus what could be mumbo jumbo handicapping. Substitute SI for any other horse in the race then. I just randomly selected a horse.

I don\'t think Frankel, Pletcher, Baffert, Drysdale think they are smart enough to admit they don\'t know much. I will ask them. (Unfortunately, I cannot ask Frankel).