A Glimmer Of Hope

[TGJB]

They had him not getting back to his 2yo top, which is presumably why you said you didn\'t like his pattern. It was a zero. He laid over the field and his pattern was just fine-- which doesn\'t mean anybody here takes odds-on. But we weren\'t trying to beat him.

We talk about patterns all the time, we just doesn\'t use the BS jargon the Lens use to make what they do sound important. Please give me the definition of \"condition move\".

[mjellish]

Vito, you\'re a nice guy and a good handicapper.  I have a question for you.  Do you believe a track variant, or the speed of the racetrack, can change during a racing card?

For example, if the wind suddenly picks up or dies down in advance of changing weather, can that change the variant from what was happening earlier in the card?

Or if there are 10 races carded, and it\'s partly cloudy with no rain during races 1-4, but then it starts to rain in race 5 and continues to rain harder and harder for the remainder of the card, do races 1-4 and 5-10 have the same track variant?

[bellsbendboy]

Hi Vito,

Could you briefly explain what you mean by a \"conditioning line\"?  THX.

bbb

[miff]

No longer a credible constant in converting Rags to TG

[vp612]

I will give you 2 I caught yesterday and please I bet losers also.Princess violet in the 6th at Keeneland was an example.A real tough  race and Violet had an 8 and a 1/4 lats year and this year 7 and 3/4 which is a 1/2 point move first out,very strong in my world.We call it a condition line or move.Kobe ran 4 and a 1/2 last year  and first out at 4yrs old matched it ,again very strong.Now rest is important and both were fine in that dept.Age is a factor 3,4,5 yr olds are horses that can make these moves.I gave you a compact explanation.

[vp612]

What does that mean?

[vp612]

I will answer you the best way I can.I happen to be very good with numbers in day to day life.I understand what you are saying and I let Them do the numbers.My belief is that if I am going to start asking why this, and why that, I am going to confuse myself.Ilook at their numbers and look for patterns that I like and make a play.I know you guys are big on changing track speeds and all that.I let them look at it and I take it from there.

[mjellish]

So your answer is \"I don\'t know and I don\'t care.\"

Right?

[miff]

Vito,

It means that the TG to Rags conversion was add 2.5 points,that graduated to add 3 points then to add 3.50 points then add 4 points.Finally no constant number can be added to a TG figure to come to the Rags fig at least 70% of the time which makes the conversion with any constant useless.

Why do you suppose only Rags has the no constant conversion add? Figures amongst the other converted figure makers have a solid constant.

Re Beyer.Since you may not have studied fig makers and how they arrive at a number. In brief, no fig maker makes a better variant for the day than Beyer(several make them well also) The days variant, without question, is the single most important factor in making figures on a normal day with sufficient other data points.


Re Ground Loss.All ground loss is NOT equal(it is only in distance) and ground loss often awards horses lofty figures.A horse travelling the turn wide in 13 seconds gets the same ground loss adjustment as a horse travelling that same turn in 12 seconds.... pure nonsense.All things slower in a race are never equal to all things faster in the same race.There are too many instances where ground loss is overweight(faster)in Rags figs and horses that wire are underweight(slower)

Sorry to go on, you asked.

Mike

[vp612]

I play their numbers period.

[TGJB]

Anyone can come up with an example afterward-- see \"Dosage\". I asked you for a definition.

[vp612]

I cannot tell you how many horses i have played and won with against horses with big time beyers.I play patterns not 100 beyer numbers because they have no meaning to me.I f a horse runs a 95,97.98 Beyer what is he running next?I don\'t know, but when I see 11,10, on the sheets I have an idea what he is going to run.

[vp612]

It is when a horse runs a number, a small improvement that leads you to believe a forward move is coming,but there are many things involved, age , timing, etc..By the way I am not a red boarder.

[mjellish]

Got it.  You like to see swings up and down in numbers so you can play patterns, and you don\'t question the methodology behind those numbers and patterns.

There\'s also got to be an assumption in here that this is true only so long as you keep winding up betting on winners, no?

[vp612]

Look this is a very tough game on any level.I believe their product gives me the best chance to win.Win every time ,let\'s be serious.Yesterday you were talking on this board about a turf horse owned by Mr COVELLO .On the sheets that I use he was a toss,and he was 2 for 2 in this country.By the way I have nothing against Mr Covello,nice guy.