funny thing about this Derby...

[covelj70]

needless to say, I agree with so many of the good comments that have been made on the board about how good the top horses are for this years Derby.

Just by comparison, Chrome wouldn\'t have been in the top 5 choices this year (at least from anyone using TGs) and he was the odds on choice last year.

That said, while this will be a wonderful race to watch, I wonder how good it will be to bet?

While it\'s easy to make a case about how one of the top 4 or 5 could run out of the money due to bad trip, etc, it\'s hard to make a case that most/all of the tri/super isn\'t going to be filled with the top 5 horses given how great they are

My top 5 in no particular order until final training and post are:

Materiality
Dortomund
Pharoah
International Star
Carpe Diem

Problem with that is that they are going to be everyone\'s top 5 with the exception of maybe some putting Upstart in there but if he misses anymore time with the sickness, he will fall on everyone\'s list. Some will also make a case for Firing Line obviously but he couldn\'t beat Dortomund the last two times at shorter distances so not much case to be mad for him winning going further than he wants to go.

It\'s easy to overthink this race with analysis paralysis (God knows I do that seemingly ever other year) but the reality is that those 5 are far enough ahead of the rest that it\'s hard to see how to 2 out of the 3 of them or 3 out of 3 of them don\'t fill up the tri.

So, while I am VERY much looking forward to the race because of just how great the horses at the top of the list seem to be, it does seem like it\'s going to be tough to make a huge score on this race given how top heavy the group is

would love others thoughts on this topic

[P-Dub]

All it takes is a horse or 2 at long odds to plod up into the money. Many times its a horse below the 1st tier (at inflated odds), because for whatever reason some of the good ones don\'t run to their lofty numbers.

[touchgold]

if i recall big brown/eight belles/dennis of cork was a signer. Heavy chalk/4th choice/bomb.....3400 tri

[Polamalu43]

Funny, you bring this up Jim.  I was on the phone with a friend, Saturday after the Ark Derby, and we talked about this same thing.

We concluded the best way to attack, and I could be totally wrong, is playing supers and trying to find prices to play in the place, show and 4th slot.  Easier said than done, possibly.  

The p4\'s leading into the derby may be a good bet as well, with no Wise Dan in the mix as a strong single.

Just my thought as I start to weight my betting options.

[miff]

Jim,

A few observations:

International Star is smallish has tripped out twice and was pounded to death with the stick in last,slowish vs this group, hate him,he\'ll jog probably.

Firing Line is a strong case of a horse getting beat twice by Dortmund but should not have lost either time, switch riders, strength wise, and FL beats Dort both times imo. FL running off the screen vs nothing was still ok taking strong pressure and finishing with authority at 9f.Fl was a bit off training in Feb but roared back in March and is holding well now.I like him a lot considering his odds.Has already outrun his distance breeding.

Materiality is brilliant but lack of 2 yr old race etc plus a gut wrencher type Fl Derby makes me wonder.Has had good trips so far in his 3 wins.

AP and the slower Carpe Diem look to be sitting on a big performance, assuming they train well up to race.

Upstart a toss for me too, agree he\'s got knocks and has not finished with any authority last 2 races on that brutal GP surface.

Dortmund will not win the derby without a clear outside type trip imo.Watched him go up and down twice late in races. Trying to beat him in the number, if he trips out he will hit the board with his usual good race.


Like you, if an outlier hits the board, I\'ll lose.Pools too big not to take a shot.

Good luck
Mike

[TGJB]

Re distance breeding: how about you break the field down here into three groups, plus distance, minus distance, and neutral? Just on pedigree.

[mjellish]

International Star will probably not be in the top 5 betting choices.  Slow on Beyers and I\'m sure slow on TG and Rag\'s compared to the rest of these.  But in the LA Derby he chased down Stanford after that one got the easy lead on a slow early pace.  Watch the way the way Stanford drew off on the field from the top of the stretch down lane down.  Watch the way Star went with him and ran him down anyway.  Now, Upstart and Mat did the same thing together in the FL Derby.  But I give a colt like Star extra credit for his effort because Stanford had it all his own way and was going to kick away and Star still ran him down.  

Bottom line is slow early pace race shapes make for poor figures and they don\'t tell the whole story.  But Star is still probably too slow on Beyer, most widely used figures, to take enough money in this race to be a top 5 betting choice.  And he may be too slow to hit the board if the rest run their race.  But they all probably won\'t, IMO.  And he probably will based on what I\'ve seen.

[covelj70]

sure. happy to

I will definitely do that in the next week or so and post

[johnnym]

Inter Star has a 107 late pace figure according to bris numbers this horse may not show the thoro numbers but he is not afraid to sneak thru a hole.. Sometimes the numbers don\'t tell the whole story..Giacomo mind that bird.
Any horse in the 1 hole is a toss.
Materiality to much to fast,if Pletcher beets me Derby day than he beets me.
Frosted is a horse I am warming up to. If he does not flip his palate in the F.O.Y he is 8-1 Derby Day.
Right now my top 3 are A.P,Inter Star and Frosted.
Gotta wait and see how the works go and the post positions go.
I may change my mind..

[johnnym]

Regarding a huge score your a numbers guy,yes there is a very good chance of a large score.. Bad break speed duel 6-7 wide the opportunity to hit is to good not to take a shot..
I am curious when was the last time in Derby history that the favorite won 3 years in a row?

[Agastache]

Maybe 77-79 with Slew, Affirmed, and Bid?

[covelj70]

On Frosted,  super horse, wish I owned him but the throat surgery he had before the wood is known to work once and then not hold for a second race.

now every situation is different so no one should treat this (or anything else that comes out of my moronic brain) as gospel truth but I had a horse a few years back that wasn\'t getting his air, we did the throat surgery and he ran a hole in the wind first time after the surgery at Keenland.  Won a low level claimer by 8 or 9, ran a huge TG number.

We brought him back in a high level claimer at the end of the meet, a race he should have won easy even with a regression on the TGs.

He spit the bit at the top of the stretch and was claimed.  Never ran again.  We had no way of knowing the surgery would only last one race but it\'s pretty common for the particular procedure that he had to last once and only once.

It won\'t show up in the breezes either (unless your the jock on his back that can hear him make noises) so he\'s another one (like Upstart) that I don\'t care how great he \"looks\" at CD, my money is against the throat procedure holding for a second big effort.

just my two cents, I am wrong all the time on this stuff

[Old Mr. Boston]

Jim, I don\'t have any stats to speak one way or the other on the throat surgery but didn\'t Alysheba have it just before his big run in the Triple Crown and the rest of his 3 and 4 year old seasons.....Ken

[johnnym]

That is some pretty heavy info their,as Frosted was in my top 3 and was going to get a lot of my $$
So now the question is do I believe your moronic brain or my moronic brain?

[aceriley]

I\'m already invested in the future book so it is what it is but distance-pedigree wise the UAE Derby winner sure looks good to me. He can run all day and gets first Lasix on the 1st Saturday in May.  Beyer, TG and Rags speed figures apparently say he\'s too slow but well let\'s just say I don\'t trust any figures made on that Meydan surface which is brand new and by all accounts deep, and metric and all.  I\'m not investing anymore in Mubtaahij to win (won\'t get better than my 90-1 book bet) other than to play him singled in the horizontals and on top and underneath in the the verticals. Pioneer of the Nile ran second in the Derby, and so did Empire Maker so I\'m keying AP under Mubdaahij in the gimmicks.