THE DERBY TG

[TGJB]

Not sure those people play exotics...

[jp702006]

You are correct to an extent. However, it only takes a few extra people to use a particular horse in a tri box or super box to take hundreds or thousands out of one\'s pocket.

[Tavasco]

I like TGJB\'s point and believe the party people least likely to play the super. JB, wanting max payout is understandable in most cases. Unless it was that crazy pic 6.

Party money is in abundance @ the Kentucky Derby. Does it make the favorite?  What does shape their opinion? I\'ve watched the big pools in Tokyo & Hong Kong and wonder how can so many people be right. Assuming it was the crowd!

[P-Dub]

jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t disagree. My point is that there will be
> people who would never have used this horse, but
> now will because of Calvin. That potentially means
> amature\'s taking money out of my pocket and that
> is irritating:)

Yes, but lots of \"amateur\'s\" already contributing to the pool.  You can\'t expect them to play only the worst tickets.

There will be plenty of money in the pools.

[sekrah]

For every person who bets Calvin, there\'s 3 others who like Ocho Ocho Ocho because they are a Bengals fan, Stanford because they went to school there, War Story because there\'s always older guys who bet the \"War\" horses,

Ride On Curlin went from 15-1 ML to 17-1 last year with Calvin on.

I wouldn\'t spend one second worrying about what the amateurs are going to wager.

[dcost328]

I\'d say even more prominent the last few years was all the money Rosie took on her mounts, especially on the huge days. Her mounts had much more diminished value than Borel.

[Beginner]

Maybe that hard left turn from the parking lot that Borel took last year diminishes some of the \"Bo-Rail\" money.

What is a ground saving 2?  I thought the numbers were calculated taking into effect, among other things, ground saved or lost.  Isn\'t a 2 a 2?  (I\'m asking).

[TGJB]

Ground is built into the past numbers. But a horse that runs a 2 today on the rail both turns will beat a 2 in the 3 path both turns by 4 lengths.

[jp702006]

This amateur appreciates your feedback. I think I just have a strong dislike for Borel at the Derby because of the money he has cost me over the years! LOL:)

[Beginner]

Yep, thanks - understand that.  

I was confused by prediction vs. historical.  Thanks.

[joemama]

I believe the big money rules.  How many small time bets does it take to make up for the big bets.  What comes to my mind was the betting on the 2013 Derby when ORB won.  This horse was sitting at something like 7,8 to 1 in the early wagering.  It wasn\'t till late in the wagering that the horse got bet down to 9-2 or so. It took a ton of money to drop that horse down to those odds that late into the wagering.  I don\'t know , what\'s the point?

[joemama]

That\'s funny man.

[phil23]

I remember having this exact debate with myself on Orb late that day. Few places had him at fixed odds around 6:1 half hour to post but my parimutuel place was offering +10% on win bets that day. Figured that would make up for any minor late drop in price (and if he didn\'t drop at all would be much ahead) so opted for the pools. Big mistake.

[joemama]

I was astounded at the late money that horse took to drop the odds from what they were.  This was very late money and I don\'t believe it was $2 bettors.