whose most likely to bomb???

[sekrah]

The problem is you\'re looking to make a \"score\" instead of just pushing your edges. Getting 3-1 (possible more) on the best pattern in a 3-horse race isn\'t shabby at all.

Just because there\'s no 1000-1 exotic payout lurking in the verticals doesn\'t mean there isn\'t opportunity and value. You don\'t always have to hit a grand slam to be a winning horse player. There are profitable singles out there to be had.

[jerry]

Good luck.

[ringato3]

Jerry,

I think you and toppled are going to need more luck than Sekrah will.  

How you guys can think 4-1 is not value on a horse that Toppled has as the same 50/50 to bounce as the 3-5 shot, and yet u both like the 3-5 shot, is hard to understand.

Both 50/50 to bounce.  (in Toppled\'s view, not mine), but 60 cents on the dollar is better than $4 on the dollar.  Over 6 times the price on a horse you give the same probability to bounce.  Hmm.....

To even think about making AP the bet, I would have to believe he is 2 to 3 times less likely to bounce than FL.  Then, at 1/6th the price, I could think about it.  

3 horse race, 1 sort of flat lining, 1 may have tactical issues from the rail draw, along with many reasons to bounce (foot, tight spacing, late start to campaign) and 4-1 on the other isn\'t value?  

Let\'s see.....

Rob

[T Severini]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jerry Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Why does it matter? From a wagering
> perspective,
> > there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them
> > could bomb. The only edge is betting all of
> them
> > to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.
>
> This is totally untrue. If you spot a vulnerable
> odds-on favorite, and there is one here, then you
> have an opportunity. Especially in a race with
> huge pools.
>
> There\'s absolutely betting opportunity in this
> race. There\'s an opportunity to aggressively push
> an edge.

Here\'s the thing, if AP is odds on and misses the board, what kind of exotics are possible?

What if the winner isn\'t Little big 3? or Little big 2, if we are factoring AP disappearance?

It\'s only eight horses, but what if AP, like his daddy, is a little fatigued and not enamored with the Pimlico surface? Pioneerof the Nile never ran again after the Preakness, it\'s not an easy race coming off a big Derby effort.

How do we know AP has affinity for Pimlico?  Baffert didn\'t even work him over it. How is that possible? Oh sure, he\'s in familiar surroundings there at Churchill and it\'s a dang good track to train over, but isn\'t it neglectful to not give a horse time to acclimate over a new track? There\'s a couple scenarios right? You ship in early, arrange for a stable, maybe the water is different and lets say he trains bad over the track, then what? Well, at least you give him time to get his action better right? Give him time to get his stride worked out over that surface.

Even with a well spotted horse anything can happen, what about a young horse with a tough recent race.

Theres no sure thing and I continue to get a very odd feeling about AP.

[TGJB]

Pretty much.

A horse can both be the most likely winner and a bet against.

Meanwhile, between h pace possibilities and FL getting caught wide if they don\'t go fast, there\'s a lot of randomness here. FL may or may not be a good bet but AP can\'t be.

[Leamas57]

AP and Firing Line aside for a second, I think the question that needs asking is whether Dortmund\'s colic affected his stamina in the Derby. If as some suggested here, Dortmund was not at his best, what if he \"strikes back\" and makes it three and one against FL? To me, though I don\'t have the info or the intuition to assess whether we saw his best in the Derby, he is the X factor here.

Seems to me I will just put Danzig Moon in third behind D, AP, and FL and figure only two of the three horses he ran behind last time will beat him this time. $6 bet x 20 and depending on who wins or doesn\'t run, it pays about 5- or maybe 10-1.

Leamas.

[ringato3]

Leamas,

I think the colic is a potentially interesting point.  But I think Dortmund is a bit interesting even if the colic wasn\'t a factor and even if the rail was OK on Derby day.  I know TGJB didn\'t give it an \"X\", but it didn\'t seem to be the best place to be.

The reason I think he is a bit interesting is that I would think he would be the least likely of the big 3 to bounce.  He is a big horse, has been running roughly the same race and his trainer has proven he can get them ready off the short rest and he HASN\'T had the late campaign start, foot issues and shorter rest that AP has had, plus he will also be 5 or 6 times the price of AP.

I am more of a horizontal than vertical player, and am likely to play Pick-3, Pick-4, Pick-5s into the Preakness with 70% of my money on Firing Line who I think is better than Dortmund 30% on Dortmund, with AP beating me, which I could live with.  As TGJB just posted, AP can\'t be a good bet.  Win or lose, can\'t put a nickel on him.  

Rob

[TGJB]

This is one time we agree. Look, let\'s say it\'s 60% AP wins, 20 he backs up but still hits the board, 20 he implodes either bouncing, because of trouble, or some random occurance. Clearly the leverage is in playing the last one even though it\'s only 20%. He\'ll be on at least 95% of the tri tickets.

And whatever he is in the win pool he\'ll be shorter in the multis, as Miff said the other day.

[toppled]

The problem with thinking 4 to 1 on a horse who has a 50% chance to bounce is a good bet is that it\'s still an 8 horse field.  If the fav doesn\'t bounce he\'s still faster than you and he wins. 4/1 on a loser pays 0. If you\'re going for odds then bet Danzig Moon. Odds are he\'ll also pay 0 to win but at least you\'ll have the real value play & if they both bounce you\'ve got a great chance since he\'s about as fast as Dortmund at 3x the price.  
I don\'t need luck on the race, I\'m not betting a win bet.  My win bets this weekend will be on horses at odds higher than AP\'s.  
Friday: T Sizzle 5/1 3rd race, Daniel Did It 15/1 6th, Silverville 6/1 7th, Danessa Deluxe 9/2 11th & Page McKenney 15/1 14th.
Saturday: Regal Warrior 10/1 2nd, Chiropractor 7/2 3rd, Smart N Smokin 8/1 6th, Arrive 9/2 best bet of weekend 8th, and Old Upstart 3/1 14th.
I think there\'s more value in those races than the Preskness.

[T Severini]

Yeah, thanks for bringing it back up. He had colic on April 25th. He could be better if he had a minor infection. He could still have whatever set him back. If you think it could be a case of the former he may improve feeling better or not fighting a light infection.

Colic in horses can be difficult to get a handle on.

I\'m leaning toward your view though. Just a little more edge could be important here.



Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AP and Firing Line aside for a second, I think the
> question that needs asking is whether Dortmund\'s
> colic affected his stamina in the Derby. If as
> some suggested here, Dortmund was not at his best,
> what if he \"strikes back\" and makes it two and two
> against FL? To me, though I don\'t have the info or
> the intuition to assess whether we saw his best in
> the Derby, he is the X factor here.
>
> Seems to me I will just put Danzig Moon in third
> behind D, AP, and FL and figure only two of the
> three horses he ran behind last time will beat him
> this time. $6 bet x 20 and depending on who wins
> or doesn\'t run, it pays about 5- or maybe 10-1.
>
> Leamas.

[big18741]

The winner of the race right after the Derby never left the rail and jogged.

[ringato3]

Toppled,

I don\'t think anybody is 50% to bounce.  That was your view, not mine.  Was illustrating that your own conclusion (liking AP), with your own logic (that both were 50/50 to bounce), was an awful conclusion.

Never quite understand how somebody can say 3-5 on a horse is an underlay, so they will play a horse in the pick-4 or pick 5 as a single.  AP will be just as short in the multi race bets as he is in the win pool.  

It would different if somebody said they think a horse is 65% percent to win, but since they don\'t bet 3/5 shots, they were going to single a horse in the multis.  

I don\'t think any horse is EVER 50% to bounce.

20 to 25% is probably a \"high-ish\" number.  

Rob

[T Severini]

Yeah, essentially it\'s a value assessment as well as something not adding up regarding the horse.

For you, there\'s more security in bucking the \"odds on\" horse because statistics are telling you its the play. I\'m influenced by that in considering observations suggesting the same thing.

I\'m even intrigued by what Dortmund\'s presence suggests. Baffert said he deserves his chance and he does. I don\'t think your analysis is in accord, but I believe he has a chance to improve and I\'m still not comfortable with Firing Line\'s failure to change leads. That was novel.

[boston]

In both of the last two races the rail was very good.

[rhagood]

Good bet on Bovada.com ?

http://horses.bovada.lv/futures/EZ/2375740

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