whose most likely to bomb???

[toppled]

I was asked a question, just threw the 50% out there without much thought and then went to the Thoro-pattern for a more definitive answer. Of course on a statistical review, 50% bounce is way too high.  Basically, I\'m not doing much analysis of the race & outside of some minor action doubles, I\'m passing the race.  Lots of better opportunities at Pimlico Friday & Saturday.  Those are the races I spent my time on, not the Preakness.  The fact that I think the 3/5 favorite will win but is not worth betting on takes any serious betting on this race out of play for me.
 
At some point this thread is getting ridiculous, just rehashing likes or dislikes of certain horses .  It was started by someone who hated AP\'s victory and wanted his fellow anti-AP brothers to chime in saying AP will bomb. Mission accomplished.  I give up, because I have little to no skin in this game.  If they win, they\'re not hurting me & if I\'m right I won\'t benefit by cashing anyway, and they\'re allowed to bet their opinion & take whatever risk they feel their opinion is worth.

[ringato3]

Toppled

Being an AP hater, as u call it, and understanding math, probabilities and expected ROI, are two different things, although technically not mutually exclusive.  

Best of luck.

Rob

[jerry]

First of all, I did not pick AP to win. I have no opinion on the race. Second, if you think you\'re getting 4-1 on Firing Line you\'re deluded. Third, if this is the best you can do in terms of finding value, bet small.

[jerry]

What\'s the best pattern? Firing Line? 2 1/2 pt. top on 2 weeks rest. No thanks. If I play the race, I\'ll bet that the top 3 left it all on the track in Kentucky and just play Divining Rod and the red hot Arnaud Delacour.

[sekrah]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At some point this thread is getting ridiculous,
> just rehashing likes or dislikes of certain horses
> .  It was started by someone who hated AP\'s
> victory and wanted his fellow anti-AP brothers to
> chime in saying AP will bomb. Mission
> accomplished.  I give up, because I have little to
> no skin in this game.  If they win, they\'re not
> hurting me & if I\'m right I won\'t benefit by
> cashing anyway, and they\'re allowed to bet their
> opinion & take whatever risk they feel their
> opinion is worth.


This discussion isn\'t rehashing the likes and dislikes of certain horse.  It\'s about proper wagering strategy.  Putting a single on underlay chalk in the horizontals is just as a poor strategy as making a win bet on him. People do it because they like the chalk in a race, and don\'t see a way to make any money in it. People think they have to hit a Grand Slam home run every single day they go to the track or the day was a failure.

It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll spread huge in the other legs and often end up with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last year.

[sekrah]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, I did not pick AP to win. I have no
> opinion on the race. Second, if you think you\'re
> getting 4-1 on Firing Line you\'re deluded. Third,
> if this is the best you can do in terms of finding
> value, bet small.

5dimes.Eu

Sat 5/16   115 Firing Line wins Preakness Stakes +425    

That\'s okay, you\'re not the first one to have called me deluded.

[sekrah]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Leamas,
>
> I think the colic is a potentially interesting
> point.  But I think Dortmund is a bit interesting
> even if the colic wasn\'t a factor and even if the
> rail was OK on Derby day.  I know TGJB didn\'t give
> it an \"X\", but it didn\'t seem to be the best place
> to be.
>
> The reason I think he is a bit interesting is that
> I would think he would be the least likely of the
> big 3 to bounce.  He is a big horse, has been
> running roughly the same race and his trainer has
> proven he can get them ready off the short rest
> and he HASN\'T had the late campaign start, foot
> issues and shorter rest that AP has had, plus he
> will also be 5 or 6 times the price of AP.
>
> I am more of a horizontal than vertical player,
> and am likely to play Pick-3, Pick-4, Pick-5s into
> the Preakness with 70% of my money on Firing Line
> who I think is better than Dortmund 30% on
> Dortmund, with AP beating me, which I could live
> with.  As TGJB just posted, AP can\'t be a good
> bet.  Win or lose, can\'t put a nickel on him.  
>
> Rob

Yep, if he wins, you win nothing. Horizontal, Verticals, Win pools. It doesn\'t matter. To be a successful horse player you have to be willing to wager on an outcome that is not the most likely outcome. It\'s one of the trickiest things for people to wrap their heads around. Risk aversion is not an attribute you want to possess if you want to win long-term at the races.

[T Severini]

rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good bet on Bovada.com ?
>
> http://horses.bovada.lv/futures/EZ/2375740
>
> Horse Racing Futures
>
> Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
>
> May 16, 2015 - 05:13 PM EDT
>
> All wagers have action.
>
> Yes   10/11      No   10/13


Say he wins the Preakness then my opinion is no. You\'ll get far better odds on the horse that beats him. Hopefully its a 12 horse field.

Folks want to see a Triple Crown and it will happen and this could be the year, but they bet for it to happen too.

[johnnym]

Sekar;
I understand your point to an extent..
However When is it that the obvious is the obvious and you are just throwing $$ away trying to outsmart the obvious..

[moosepalm]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> This discussion isn\'t rehashing the likes and
> dislikes of certain horse.  It\'s about proper
> wagering strategy.  Putting a single on underlay
> chalk in the horizontals is just as a poor
> strategy as making a win bet on him. People do it
> because they like the chalk in a race, and don\'t
> see a way to make any money in it. People think
> they have to hit a Grand Slam home run every
> single day they go to the track or the day was a
> failure.
>
> It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a
> Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is
> JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the
> foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick
> 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> year.


In an example that is likely different than yours, if you believe a 3/5 horse has a 90+% chance of winning (not AP, IMO), and you have a strong opinion on another horse or horses in a Pick 4 sequence, it can be played as if it were a Pick 3.  The 3/5 shot is not so much your key as it is a free square.  It will give you an unknown multiple in your sequence making its return greater than a Pick 3.  This approach is looking at it differently than most of the conversation about the Preakness, in which the focus is exclusively on finding value in \"an unbettable race.\"  When you start from that vantage point, it becomes a tail wagging the dog strategy, trying to force value when it may not exist, even assuming one really likes AP.  For most bettors, and most certainly myself, the problem is that we are locked into certain habitual patterns of thinking in wagering strategy, and try to make them applicable to every race.  If a 3/5 shot is an underlay, he\'s probably unusable in nearly any scenario.  If not an underlay, then he could be viewed as leverage.

[beazley]

Japan provides horse weight on the incredible tote boards they have.  You can easily see weight gain and loss. They also show range of payoffs for things like place bets and multi horse exotics.  And they are in easy to read table form.

[beazley]

Although AP is most likely to win and hit Tri of top 3 there is still a chance he misses Tri due to bounce, hot pace, dirt in face, trouble, etc. in this case huge score is possible and you don\'t have to risk a ton to take a stab at it.

[jerry]

If Firing Line\'s 4-1 or better, I\'ll bet him. He was the wise guy horse in the derby and ran a good second. I expect no better than 5-2.

[miff]

One crestfallen wise guy off. FL is wowing newbies at Pimlico with his physical presence and energy level.They may be unaware that FL has looked great since April but overt good looks to a horse coming out of a war have often fooled the best trainers in the world.The silent bounce is ever present only manifesting itself under race stress.

AP also full of beans galloping, carrying not an ounce of extra conditioning. Answers tomorrow if he has the physical attributes/resiliency to come back short race. Not a good prop at short odds, Baffert said to have given Espinoza the send sign for AP.

[TGJB]

\"Silent bounce\" is excellent.

I\'m not a race dynamics guy, as you know, but I don\'t think enough has been made of possible chaos factors here-- AP on rail, Garcia riding another horse for Baffert (see Shared Belief), Lukas having another speed horse bought from Zayat. All kinds of possibilities from easy lead to rodeo.

There has to be some chance Garcia puts Stevens out into the parking lot. Preaknessgate?