whose most likely to bomb???

[miff]

\"There has to be some chance Garcia puts Stevens out into the parking lot\"

Agree, really feel break will be especially huge tomorrow.Also,is it a foregone conclusion that Firing Line will even clear Diving Rod early? Castellano uber aggressive rider too.

Rumors of the day:

1.Dortmund is over the top and will scratch.

2.Dortmund has lost weight since the bout with colic and was not 100% in derby,still not.

3.AP is skin and bones and looks like death(contrary to other eyes there)

4.Gary Stevens telling all his friends to bet on Firing Line

5.Casse saying Danzig M will run his eyeballs out, better now than in derby


...dont ya love it?

[TGJB]

By the time they leave the first turn we could either be watching a boat race and starting to handicap the Belmont or total chaos leading to an unpredictable result. Much truer here than in other races.

[sekrah]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekar;
> I understand your point to an extent..
> However When is it that the obvious is the obvious
> and you are just throwing $$ away trying to
> outsmart the obvious..


What is obvious?

[sekrah]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Firing Line\'s 4-1 or better, I\'ll bet him. He
> was the wise guy horse in the derby and ran a good
> second. I expect no better than 5-2.


Well you can get 4.25-1 on him right now, so load up an offshore book!

[miff]

\"By the time they leave the first turn we could either be watching a boat race and starting to handicap the Belmont or total chaos leading to an unpredictable result. Much truer here than in other races\"


JB,

Somewhat, you just described something you are not big on, dynamics.

MIke

[TGJB]

Yes, I know. My point was it has a lot more relevance here than usual.

Seriously, the amount of possible conspiracy theories for this one is nuts.

[ringato3]

TGJB

Not surprised u would worried about ground loss and Stevens getting pushed wide.   (Ground loss a key part of your methodology)

But have to think the chaos factor a bigger problem for AP.   U get Stevens, undoubtedly one of the smartest jockeys in the game, with a long run to the turn.   I trust him.   Victor, stronger thsn smart, has wacko Lukas sending amongst potential other sends.  And has to decide to push or take back.   As a regular bettor of California, I do t want victor making split second decisions.   Not his strength

Plus, by definition, chaos and \"x factor\" hurts a 3/5 shot more than others - the math hard to overcome betting 3/5 without chaos.   (at least until the gates open!)

Rob

[rossi3839]

My thoughts after reading this thread and others on this excellent site: If AP loses the Preakness, there goes all the value on the Belmont. So, I am thinking of using use half of my allotted Preakness/ Belmont bankroll betting against AP in the Preakness. If AP wins, I use the other half to bet against an extreme AP underlay in the Belmont. Only other option for me is not to bet the Preakness and hope AP wins and then use the entire bankroll as a bet against AP in the Belmont. Your thoughts and how are you betting it?

[mjellish]

Reminds me of 2006 Preakness.  Barbaro looked like as sure a thing as you would see, and also had 6 weeks between his FL Derby and the KY Derby if I remember correctly, which was almost unheard of then.  Lots of talk about how that extra spacing was going to help him now (similar to what Sek has been saying about Firing Line).

I was at the track with my father on Preakness day, just he and I, and he insisted that I give him a Preakness bet.  I said it was a pass race for me unless Barbaro looked bad in the paddock, which he didn\'t by the way.  20 minutes before the race my dad still insisted I give him a bet.  So I told him if he had to be a degenerate here it was, and I wrote down TRI 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL for whatever amount he wanted.  He walked up and put that bet in.  As they loaded, Barbaro broke through the gate and it dawned on me immediately that Barbaro was maybe going to go off form (never have really seen a horse run a top after breaking through the gate, not saying it hasn\'t happened but the percentages are poor).  I was up and running to the window immediately, and I mean immediately, figuring I would still have enough time to get my bet in as the vet looked at Barbaro etc.  But instead they wheeled him right around and put him back in with just a cursory check and they were off within a minute, so I got shut out.  I got back to my father right around the time Barbaro broke down and said, \"You are going to win that damn bet and make a wad.\"  He cashed his ticket and tipped me a couple hundred as I recall and said \"Good Bet Boy.  Thanks.\"

My point being that it was a very unhappy moment for a lot of reasons and one you could not see coming.  And unless someone has a piece of information about the Preakness this year that I don\'t have access to, there is no way this is a good betting race.  It may be a good gambling race if you want to gamble, but it\'s not a good betting race if you are thinking you have an edge because you don\'t.  And I don\'t mean to sound arrogant there.  I\'m simply saying that if you bet your opinion and turn out to be right good for you.  But the percentages just based on looking at their sheets can\'t be much more than 50/50 either way with any of these colts.  There are just way to many variables this year.  And I do not trust a public comment by a trainer or a race track rumor in any way shape or form.

I want to play AP to bounce and hope to see some visual evidence that gives me the confidence to do so. And I want to see it myself or hear it from someone with eyes that I completely trust.  

I have no choice but to wait until the last minute on this one.

[Rich Curtis]

Espinoza has some interesting stats. Check them out on AP\'s sheet.

[TGJB]

I made a pretty big bet against Barbaro at Betfair. The difference between him and FL is that he was coming off a bigger top and much more development from his 2yo top-- and was much shorter, obviously.

First two bets I made on Betfair were against Barbaro and on Crash to win best picture.

[sekrah]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I made a pretty big bet against Barbaro at
> Betfair. The difference between him and FL is that
> he was coming off a bigger top and much more
> development from his 2yo top-- and was much
> shorter, obviously.
>
> First two bets I made on Betfair were against
> Barbaro and on Crash to win best picture.


Bingo.  Another knock against Barbaro is that he was sock full of turf breeding. In my experience, turf bred horses who run big on dirt, bounce harder.

Another thing, Firing Line doesn\'t HAVE to run. They are choosing to run him. Barbaro had to run, and there\'s plenty of whispers around that he wasn\'t quite his normal self that day.

[TGJB]

Ring-- agree about randomness making it bad to bet odds-on favorites (which people don\'t take into account enough, especially bridge jumpers). But what I mean by chaos is not necessarily chaos in the race, but chaos in terms of the possibilities (randomness). And if there is chaos in the race itself (turns into a rodeo), it could easily work against both the two best horses. So as I said it could quickly become apparent we\'re looking at AP saving ground on an easy lead with FL wide, or... rodeo. Or something else.

More true here than in most cases.

[mjellish]

I get it.  And every one of those points can be factored in to how you view the percentages.  Getting 3-1 or 4-1 on FL helps offset those percentages much better than taking 3/5 on AP.  And if the math works for you at those numbers and you feel you are getting the risk offset by the potential reward then good for you.  We all have different levels of risk aversion.  

For me, there\'s too much risk to take FL at 3-1 or even 4-1 to win.  And you probably need AP off the board entirely to leverage that up in the verticals, but you would also then be taking on more risk and that would offset that leverage.  So I don\'t see a vertical play in this race.

There may be enough leverage in the horizontals by just beating AP though.  So I could see doing that.  Even if you don\'t really like anything in the other races you could probably still spread a bit and single FL on the bottom if you feel that strongly about him.  I did really well in the Breeders Cup a few years ago by playing the Pick 4 that way and singling Blame to beat Zenyatta on every ticket, playing against Goldikova and having some narrow opinions in the other two races, and singling Goldikova and spreading in the other two races on those tickets.  That strategy could work here depending upon how you feel about the other races.  And I\'m not redboarding as I posted those opinions here before those BC races.

[pizzalove]

Lots and Lots of great advice here.  First off I want to reply to Gary Stevens telling his friends to bet on firing line.  I believe it was also Gary stevens who once proclaimed Mr. Frisky as the best horse he had ever ridden.  He is a jock who is prone to overstatement.

As for trying to put a wager together I am still lost.  The more I think about it the more I cant get over the fact that FL had the absolute dream set up in the Derby and could not get it done.  I doubt he will get that set up again.  I was surprised at his odds on Derby day but I think that was more due to the fact that the track was playing heavily in his favor.  Thinking of making this guy a complete toss.  This trainer has no experience in getting a horse ready on a schedule and for an event such as this.

I also agree that AP is very likely to bounce off his 3rd race in five weeks especially with that taxing of an effort in the derby. Still a solid horse and weak field could help him win.  Wont take him completely out but wont use him on top either

I think I will put Dortmund and DM on top of all tickets.  Dortmund may have been ailing a little bit and still fought on well.  If he is a healthier horse this time he may be able to turn the tables.  It has always been easier to wire the field for the Preakness then in the derby.  Massive horse with long strides may also be able to recover quicker.  Baffert is a proven trainer in getting a horse ready for Preakness success. That is my story and I am sticking to it.