whose most likely to bomb???

[pizzalove]

Could use some help here.  Not crazy about the race but I have to bet the Preakness.  Of the big three what is your opinion of who is most likely to crash and burn Saturday?


Pat

[sekrah]

AP by far.

[toppled]

Firing Line, whose best races are with a lot of spacing.  His 3yo campaign had the following spacing: to 3yo debut 49 days, 2nd race 43 days, Derby 41 days.  In addition his trainer is only 1 for 11 on 14 days rest.  Contrast that with the Baffert duo whose trainer is a lofty 34% wins on 14 days rest (also with an overall record of 3 for 3 on Derby winners winning the Preakness and 2 additional Preakness winners who ran in the Derby).  Other Derby runners trainer stats for 14 days between races: Casse 15%, Lukas 10%. Callaghan\'s 9% is the weakest of the 5 Derby/Preakness starters-Win % data compiled over last 5 years from Formulator.
Most likely to bounce: Firing Line
Least Likely to bounce: Baffert Duo.

Edit: On routes/14 days between starts Callaghan 0/9 (0%), Baffert 5/13 (38%)

[sekrah]

The spacing is precisely the reason Firing Line is least likely to bomb.  This is Sheet Theory 101.  In what world is the most overworked horse (AP) the least likely to bomb?  Why haven\'t we had a Triple Crown winner in forever?  Overworked horses trying to run 3 big races in 5 weeks!  What spacing is Pharaoh on in the Preakness? His 3rd race in 5 weeks!

There\'s no logical reason to \"Firing Line needs spacing\".  Firing Line has HAD spacing, that doesn\'t prove he needs spacing. They mapped this path to the Derby so they would have a fresh horse. He wasn\'t spaced out because he was worn out.  He hasn\'t missed any training in between these races! There\'s zero reason or logic to think he\'s going to bounce because the rest of his races have had spacing. It\'s the exact opposite that is true!

[DaveDuggan]

Have to agree with Sekrah here. Keep in mind that those stats are for horses where they CHOOSE to run within those two weeks, and that\'s hardly the case in this scenario. Which make them pretty much useless for handicapping the preakness. I\'m going to play this race as a good, old fashioned win bet on Firing Line (if there\'s normal track conditions).

[toppled]

I\'d rather play a horse whose trainer has proven he can hold a horse together with only 14 days between races than one who hasn\'t.  I\'d rather have a horse who has shown he can come back on shorter than optimal rest (3 weeks from Ark to Derby) than a horse who needs to be babied with 40+ day rests between races.

Face it, you have no idea if Firing Line can handle only 14 days rest. His trainer made sure he had a lot of rest between all his 3yo races & it had nothing to do with the 14 day turnaround between the Derby & Preakness.  Hence, my answer, the logical answer using available horse/trainer data is FL is most likely to bomb.

Fortunately, the race is in 2 days, so we\'ll see who is right.  Good luck if you\'re taking 7/2 on FL doing something contrary to his trainer\'s and his own record of success.  I prefer to do the prudent thing and put only minimal action bets on the race using multi race wagers and basically not bet a race that contrary to pizzalove\'s statement, doesn\'t HAVE TO be bet.

[Tavasco]

Not very convincing!

[sekrah]

toppled, none of what you just wrote about spacing and rest matches the knowledge I\'ve gained from my personal experience.  Good luck this weekend.

[toppled]

Good luck betting the horse with the biggest forward move (2.5 points) coming back on 2 weeks rest for a trainer with no track record of success doing what he\'s doing today.  
What sheet theory says that\'s a good move?  Worse he\'s an underlay at  7/2 to 4/1.  That\'s why there\'s no law that says you have to bet the Preakness, it\'s a bad bet no matter who you like.  At least the Baffert horses have a trainer with a proven record in this race, you\'re playing a pig in a poke, one who no matter what data you\'re using, except for Sek\'s take a horse who needs 40+ days rest & run him back off a 2.5 new top in 2 weeks sheet theory 101, tells you he\'s a bad bet.

As I said we\'ll know in 2 days. You\'re apparently risking serious $ on a win bet that has no statistical or sheet basis to be made. If I was taking the race seriously, I\'d be looking for a way to get paid if Danzig Moon hits the board, not trying to get Firing Line in the winner\'s circle at, at best 4/1.

[sekrah]

Of course you are right Dave. It\'s absurd to utilize the 14-day trainer stat in a situation where a horse is highly pressured to run.

If anything, this may support Dortmund, who does not have to run.  

For American Pharaoh, who has to run, the statistic is downright useless.

Which answers the question of this thread that American Pharaoh is by far the most likely to bomb. If this weren\'t the Triple Crown, there would be a 0% chance Baffert would run this horse 3 times in 5 weeks. AP is a massive underlay. When you have a 3/5 shot as a massive underlay, there is always a betting opportunity there.

[toppled]

You too.
As I once told a friend on the morning before my biggest score when he told me  Andy Serling said he thought the horse I was keying on that day would be running in claimers at Gulfstream that winter \"we might both be right\"  It turned out we both were.  
There are plenty of other races this weekend so that whoever is wrong on the Preakness can still have a big couple of days.  
I always believe that if I go to the track with friends & we disagree on every race, if we pick our spots correctly we can all win.  Preakness or not, just win this weekend.

[DaveDuggan]

I don\'t quite understand your spacing argument. Didn\'t Firing Line\'s program get him into the derby, and into the derby in quite good shape? Why the hell should they\'ve wanted to run him any more than he did, anyway. And why are you so sure that 4/1 is an underlay? Because your misinterpreted \"sheet theory 101\" and insane use of statistics says it is? He damn sure might not win, and AP may well do, but I think that price is pretty good for a horse that might not have to improve at all to take this home if AP where to have just a tad off day, and who very well could improve if he changes leads this time out, or just runs a better race, which is possible regardless of your hysterical interpretation of spacing for racehorses. All we know come saturday is who won and who didn\'t, but we\'ll never know if your statement that he\'s an underlay is a false one or a true one. At least you have the odds in your favour when sticking your neck out

[sekrah]

Dave, 4/1 is a pretty sweet price in a 3-horse race.

[DaveDuggan]

It is, and specially when the big favorite has a lot of IF\'s around him. Maybe I go crazy and try to get Dortmund up for the exacta as well! (and don\'t worry Toppled, I won\'t bet my house on this, anyway).

[jerry]

Why does it matter? From a wagering perspective, there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them could bomb. The only edge is betting all of them to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.