AP,OMG

[joekay]

Check out the video on BloodHorse; pre-gallop and gallop.  Unless they put up a wall at the 1/4 pole .......

[miff]

Joe,

There is a \"wall\" at the quarter pole in the Belmont, many very good horses fail to get over it.

Yes,AP looked great all week,he always looks great.


Mike

[joekay]

Yes Miff you\'re right.  Always enjoy and respect your comments and observations.  Since we won\'t be hearing from Cove,would love to have your final take on the fields\' workouts, looks, and PP draw Wed.or Thurs. Whatta you say?

[miff]

Mike Welsch,DRF,has been at Belmont all week and is now at CD observing AP, he\'s got a good handle on how they are going in, training/looks wise.

[miff]

Brandon clocker from 4 1/2 pole:

American Pharoah in 59 flat......and it supposed to rain too?

Another clocker from CD:

American Pharoah 5F in 1:00.20. Splits 13, 25, 36.60, 48.60. Out 1:13 for 6F, 1:26 for 7F and 1:39.60 for 1M.

Welsch:

American Pharoah... WOW!!

Hard to find any better description for AMERICAN PHAROAH\'s performance this morning.  Breezing five furlongs with Martin Garcia up,  his final Belmont work couldn\'t have been any more perfect, five furlongs in 1:00.08 as easy as he pleased with a tremendous gallop out, six furlongs in 1:12.82, seven eighths in 1:25.94, up ia mile in n 1:39.59,  AP seemingly getting stronger the further he went while giving the appearance that he was just  galloping the entire way.  All he seems to need now in New York is a clean trip to complete his Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont.

[Perfect Drift]

If Triple Crowns were on workouts we would have seen quite a few the past 37 years.

[miff]

The full AP hype in effect!!!!


David Grening, Belmont Park


Pharoah\'s work wows observers in New York

A handful of New York trainers watched American Pharoah\'s workout on Kiaran McLaughlin\'s I-pad while sitting in the clocker\'s stand at the Belmont Park trainer\'s track Monday morning.
Here were some of the comments as they watched:
\"Freak.\"
\"He looks like he\'s just galloping.\"
\"He\'s got a high cruising speed.\"
\"He\'s still going.\"

After the work was complete, I asked McLaughlin -- who is running FROSTED against American Pharoah -- what he thought of the work.


\"It was awesome,\" he said. \"He\'s just an awesome horse. He does everything effortlessly. But, it\'s a mile and a half, it\'s three race in five weeks, we have to hope for the best.\"


McLaughlin was watching American Pharoah work simultaneously as he was trying to keep an eye on Frosted, who jogged twice around the Belmont training track on a soggy, gloomy Monday morning in New York.
\"He couldn\'t be doing any better,\" McLaughlin said. \"We ran our race May 2 and we finished fourth.\"

[ringato3]

Mike,

We all get hung up on works this time of the year, especially Derby week, but even now.  

But as Kiaran sort of said, the mile and a half is a completely different animal, more so now than it was 20 years ago, because the breed has changed a lot, with much more \"speed over speed\" pedigrees.  

It strikes me that all I really care to know regarding works is whether a horse is doing well or not.  At least for this race.  The hyperbole really not relevant IMO for the mile and a half.

Part of me says you have to handicap this race different to an EXTREME.  let me explain.  When I am handicapping a turf race that got washed off the turf course, the turf form is irrelevant to for the most part.  A different beat, an off the turf race vs a turf race.  This is obvious.  But as I was bored yesterday morning and feeling a bit melancholy and watched the replays of the last 20 Belmonts, it strikes me that the mile and a half is ALMOST as different a beast to the other dirt races these horses have previously run, that it needs to be handicapped that way.  Sarava, Commendable, Jazil, D\'Tara, and quite a few others.

does the effortless stride and acceleration that AP has matter that much going 1 1/2 miles?  The way he blew open the Preakness field in the first quarter mile?  Does that really matter in the Belmont?  I think it doesn\'t.  The Derby is CLOSER to a representation of what the 1 1/2 will look like.  And AP ran a pretty good to very good race there, but wasn\'t much better than his competition and HARDLY looked the part of a hose that relished the distance.  

The more I watched the replays of previous races and thought through some of the really good horses that crapped out in the Belmont, the more vulnerable I think AP is.  

the problem is figuring out who is going to appreciate the extra distance.  Sure, Materiality and Frosted are the other logical contenders, and I do like them.  but if this REALLY is a different beast (the mile and a half), then you have to think outside the box a bit.  What about the Dubai horse?  A pure joke that he was 8-1 in the last Derby pool, after his Dubai win.  (Did Greenspan coin \"irrational exuberance\"?  But, now at 20-1 with the slower type pace he seemed to appreciate in the Dubai race, and his impeccable distance breeding, does a plodder like him have a reasonable shot?  I think he does.  i already on board with saying that the longest of the Pletchers, as much as I think he is a slug, has a longshot chance here.  Seems to be getting better as spring 3 year olds sometimes do.  And has that grinding style that suits this race.

I know you have said more than once, \"you don\'t see anybody beating AP if he runs his race\".  Fair enough.  But why would he run his race?  IMO very WEAK distance breeding on the dam side.  And a style that seems to be conducive to 1 1/8 type races.  Not the grind fest that the Belmont is?   That is WITHOUT factoring in the 4th race in 8 weeks, which matters, despite the fact that Baffert seems to be better than most, if not all the trainers at getting his horses to fire in the Triple Crown off short rest.  

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Works matter more than we know. Carpe Diem was working like s-it for weeks according to guys who\'s eyes I trust.

.....Carpe Diem is out of the Belmont!


Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

As I said, I want to know if a horse is doing well or poorly, but as for \"how well\", I think it doesn\'t matter much that AP is working super.  We all know he is a super work horse.  Harrington says \"best he has clocked since Sunday Silence\".  

Means VERY LITTLE as far as his ability to get the mile and a half (or not).

Carpe Diem working poorly seems to have been the worst kept secret on the planet.  Everybody saying he wasn\'t going to enter, even before Pletcher made that call.

Strange.  Pletcher usually VERY cautious. He tried to give this one time to turn it around.

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

The scr of Carpe just made the race easier for AP, with no speed at all signed on. Could end up a match race around the track with Mat and AP and if you are into splits/pace figs AP loose unless Mat goes on a mission.

AP breeding kinda useless now that he got 10f and Baffert confided he thought AP was in trouble having left some \"juice\" pre race. Never saw AP scrubbed on the entire last 5/16ths like I saw in Derby, think he won \"on empty\"

Agree 12f question must be answered but you have others much closer in ability to AP than I do.


Mike

[moosepalm]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
  The Derby is CLOSER
> to a representation of what the 1 1/2 will look
> like.  And AP ran a pretty good to very good race
> there, but wasn\'t much better than his competition
> and HARDLY looked the part of a hose that relished
> the distance.  

Rob, since this is a figures board, it\'s probably worth noting that AP ran a -3 in the Derby, which means among other things, that his best number has been run at the longest distance.  That\'s hardly determinative of his ability to get 1 1/2, but not something that should be lightly dismissed, either.

I fully agree with you about the unique challenges of handicapping this race.  There is a basic question that has yet to be answered for every horse.  When we say that there is very questionable value for AP at 3-5, I have to agree, if for no other reason than the distance, though the spacing matters, too.  But, if he needs to answer the question about the uniqueness, don\'t Frosted and Materiality need to as well?  So, even though more rested, in this \"uncertainty framework\" is there any more value in them at 5-1 or 8-1?  Weren\'t there contenders every bit as impressive as they are, who were comfortably beaten by Jazil, DaTara, etc.?

There will be plenty of value on Saturday.  I\'m just having a very hard time aligning the projected odds with any kind of personal odds board, because the components of that personal board, as imperfect as they may be, don\'t align with the conditions and history of this race.  Any other race, and it would be a no-brainer pass.

Good luck.

[ringato3]

Moosepalm,

Good points.  Agree this is a \"speed figures\" board, but a speed figure isn\'t a performance figure.  As I mentioned once before, by my view, the Preakness was no regression for AP.  That isn\'t to say I am questioning TGJB or Beyer, but rather the speed figure doesn\'t take into consideration pace or trip/ease of trip.  The ground loss that AP endured in the Derby was \"comfortable ground loss\", or if I wanted to be combative, \"phony ground loss\".  No, I am not questioning geometry, but sitting 3 wide, off a couple dueling/pressing horses, is a very comfortable trip for any horse, especially a quality horse.  So ground loss related to that trip inflates a speed figure relative to a performance figure.  Again, that is personal interpretation, which people can agree or disagree.

I don\'t take the figure AP earned in the Derby lightly.  But the way he earned it is pretty important, at least to me.  All out the last 5/16ths as Mike pointed out, and hit 30+ times with the whip.  He bottomed out/emptied out.  Nobody can sanely argue against that.  he came back and whistled running them into the ground in a driving rain at Pimlico.

Now he goes 1 1/2 mile.  Another 1/4 mile beyond the Derby.  

I will respectfully disagree with Mike\'s assertion that having won at 1 1/4, he has mostly dispelled the distance question at 1 1/2.  The game has been littered the last 10 years with miler type pedigrees that got the 1 1/4 in the Derby.  Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, California Chrome, War Emblem.  Those are a few.  The 1 1/2 is a VERY different game.  It just is.  I think California Chrome had last year\'s crop WAY MORE OVER A BARREL based on his Derby than American Pharaoh has this field over a barrel.  How did he do at the 1 1/2.

As for your point about THEY ALL HAVE TO PROVE it at 1 1/2.  I agree completely.  None are proven at the distance.

But at 3/5 or thereabouts, there can\'t be the same level of uncertainly in making that bet (in any pool), than there can be in taking ANY OTHER HORSE IN THE FIELD.  That is just math.  Uncertainty or the \"X-factor\" or a high delta in \"probable results\"  will ALWAYS hurt a 3/5 shot more than any other horse.  The crazier the potential result, the worse the bet is on the favorite.  Hard to argue that.

And for this breed, 1 1/2 on dirt is a HUGE X FACTOR.  

Rob

[mjellish]

Ring,

I think what most people on this board would say is that sooner or later AP has to bounce.  This will be his 4th race in 8 weeks.  4 different distances, 4 different tracks.  That\'s asking a lot of any 3 year old colt.

The real question is, will Saturday be the day he bounces?  If I were playing percentages (and I believe that\'s exactly what betting on horse races comes down to) I would say the percentage play is to say AP bounces and to play against him at short odds.  He\'s trying to do something no colt has done 30+ years.

That being said, I would be a hell of lot more comfortable playing against him if I saw additional reasons to do so.  So far I haven\'t seen any.  His latest work was awesome, maybe even too awesome.  Who knows, maybe this is finally \"the one.\"  I sure as hell dunno.  

But the percentage play, for sure, is to play against him to win.

The more I am looking at the race, the more I am tending to say: Ok, so the colt came into the Triple Crown sequence pretty fresh and seems to be peaking rather than regressing.  Fine, he\'s going to run his race.  But is that going to be good enough?  He doesn\'t exactly lay over the entire field.  It was just 5 weeks ago many of us were acknowledging that this is one of the strongest group of 3 year olds we have ever seen.  And I do think this field will make AP earn it.  I don\'t think there are going to be soft fractions for the 1 1/2 in this race.  I expect him to be challenged at least twice.

So who can step up and beat him?

[ringato3]

MJ,

I understand your point and also understand that particularly on this board, people are looking for the regression.

I guess it is somewhat chicken and egg.

If he runs a good race for 1 1/4 and gets leg weary late, and beat, did he bounce?  Or does it mean that he wasn\'t suited for the 1 1/2?  It won\'t matter, those that bet against him will be cashing.

If the Belmont was at 1 1/8 or 1 3/16ths, I wouldn\'t be betting against him.  I can\'t blindly bet \"bounce\" because I am hoping a horse backs up off of big efforts.  I can do that when a claimer runs a big figure out of nowhere and then comes back at short odds, but I can\'t do that when a horse like AP runs super at 2 years old, then comes back and runs super at 3 years old and is working like a banshee.  I can\'t say \"time to bounce\", and bet against when there is no sign of it in physicality or works.

But, when I see a horse EXTREMELY spent at 1 1/4 with the dam side pedigree that AP has, and then add in he is coming in for his 4th race in 8 weeks, then I can say \"bet against\".

I can\'t make a good case for anybody outside the obvious 2 alternatives in Materiality and Frosted, in that order.

I can make a weak case for two others.  The other Pletcher is rounding into form and has a nice prep over the track and the right style.  Improving spring 3 year olds are always nice.  The other \"weak\" case I can make is for Mubtahij.  Wondering if the more methodical early pace and 1 1/2 distance make this Derby \"also ran\" more interesting at 1 1/2.  he was completely outclassed in the Derby, but this will be an 8 horse field with a somewhat controlled pace, which he can be somewhat near.  He might be able to get the trip that he got in Dubai, albeit against monsters here and not Dubai horses.  Like I said, a \"weak case\", but at 20-1 in the exotics, I can live with a weak case, I wouldn\'t expect a \"strong case\" at that price.

Rob