AP,OMG

[moosepalm]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
.
>
> As for your point about THEY ALL HAVE TO PROVE it
> at 1 1/2.  I agree completely.  None are proven at
> the distance.
>
.  
Rob, in the interests of space, I just clipped this one segment, but your points were all fairly stated.

There is no doubt that the 3/5 odds are the key.  I think everyone other than Vito will have an opinion on AP\'s Derby performance beyond the figures.  Mine probably doesn\'t align with yours, but I certainly understand the analysis.  But, to get to the part of your post I highlighted, that distance uncertainty is the elephant in the room.  It seems unlikely that it\'s not unrelated to the fact that so many 1-2 Belmont finishers in recent years have come in at double digit odds.  If I don\'t like AP at 3-5, I\'m not sure if I like the next two favorites, even with more generous odds.  Nothing in their performance line suggests they like 1 1/2 more than any of the others, other than having proven they can get the first 1 1/8 more quickly.  It really is a two part problem for me.  The first part is having an opinion against a horse.  If I decide to have an opinion against AP, then Part 2, is I need to have an opinion favoring a horse, and, for me, it can\'t be built around excusing a Derby performance.  I\'ve been down that road before.  It\'s not like other races where you see a strong pattern, or a key race, or a horse getting back to a two-year old top.  The consensus argument regarding the positives of the other horses is they won\'t be going off at 3-5.  That pretty much only leads me to the \"all-but button,\" which probably has had a pretty good ROI in the Belmont in the past 8 or 9 years, but I first have to convince myself that the biggest reason I don\'t think AP will win is something other than him being 3-5.

[ringato3]

Moose,

Understand your point.  

But will make one counterpoint.  U said u can\'t forgive a bad derby.   I don\'t know, I think this is a pretty good angle.   Birdstone, summer bird, palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre derbies.   Frosted and materiality ran better than all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s ground loss loaded figure that made him look good on figures heading into the belmont)

Good luck

Rob

[jbelfior]

MJ:
Small field. I don\'t see a strong pace in here at all. I think AP goes to the lead in a sub-24 then slows it down with a :25 second quarter with Materiality not far off. Materiality hooks him on the turn and they sprint away from the rest as Frosted and the Dubai colt are being pushed to keep up.

Feel free anyone to write the ending.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[moosepalm]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
> Understand your point.  
>
> But will make one counterpoint.  U said u can\'t
> forgive a bad derby.   I don\'t know, I think this
> is a pretty good angle.   Birdstone, summer bird,
> palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre
> derbies.   Frosted and materiality ran better than
> all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s
> ground loss loaded figure that made him look good
> on figures heading into the belmont)
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob

Rob, it\'s always a question of percentages.  The list of horses who ran in the Derby and Belmont would have a wide range of outcomes between the two races, beyond the four you\'ve listed.  It isn\'t that I can\'t forgive the performance, it\'s that I don\'t find any predictive value in it.  Birdstone and Palace Malice ran new tops 4 points above anything they\'d run before.  Perhaps that\'s an analogy for the Dubai horse.  Summer Bird hit a 2 point top.  Union Rags paired his top with a rather lackluster 2, and for that, you got 5-2 (co-favorite with Dullahan who backed up 6 from the Derby).  The question becomes, what can you extrapolate from the diverse range of Derby-Belmont performances to hang your hat on?  Last year, you had Medal Count moving forward 2 points, while Wicked Strong and General A-Rod ran back to their Derby figure, or a point above.  All three of them were below their tops, while Tonalist and Commissioner, ran 1-2 with 2 and 3 point tops, respectively, and neither ran in the Derby.  The other horses from the Derby, last year, backed up, some considerably.  So, this is far from conclusive, but it seems that most of the horses who moved up from their Derby performance did it with an element of surprise, or at least their mutuals would lead one to think so, while the majority didn\'t move forward at all.  

This is hardly an exhaustive investigation, but I\'d be quite surprised if a more thorough search didn\'t find even more data pointing in all directions.  Neither history nor current horse performance leads me anywhere with conviction.  I wish you well with yours.

[Silver Charm]

I told someone Saturday nite who asked me if he can win, \"There are a handful of ways to win a horse race and 100 ways to lose one.\" So take that for what it\'s worth. And No one on this Board will be betting him to win at 3/5.  

But a strong gallop out in 1:39 and 3 when he wont have to go much faster than that on Saturday to come home in a winnable 2:26, 2:27 or 2:28 is impressive. If someone says they liked the way the horse worked, its just an opinion. I don\'t believe that meant they said they were now going to bet him....

[toppled]

I think it depends on post position. Between American Pharoah & Materiality, if one is in post 1-3 he goes, the other tracks him.  If someone wants to run with them or even take the lead, I don\'t think he\'ll be taken seriously & they\'ll let him do whatever he wants since they\'ll figure to catch him later.  My guess is it\'s only AP & M with the post position scenario as noted.  

Personally, I don\'t think Materiality can either catch AP if he\'s chasing, or stop him from going by from the far turn on.  

So, that puts AP up and leaving Materiality in his dust in the stretch.  The big question is, did holding off or tracking Materiality take too much out of AP by deep stretch. It seems like many of the defeated Triple Crown aspirants got caught in the stretch after opening up & looking like they\'d win.  Pharoah should be in that same position with the question being will he get caught in the final 8th.  I\'m thinking no, because the others will be too far back, but if he is it could be a chaos ending with any of the closers nipping him.  

I\'m going to root for the Triple Crown & do what I did in the Preakness, bet AP in horizontal bets & try to hit a DD or P3 and stay away from any win bet or the verticals unless I play 1 cold exacta with AP over a closer.

[ringato3]

Silver

Plenty from this board will be betting him at 3/5.   They just won\'t be doing it in the win pool.

It is a misnomer to say u aren\'t taking 3/5 when u bet a 3/5 shot horizontally or vertically.   Still 3/5.   They will just be trying to change the risk/reward paradigm by picking winners around him horizontally or finding the right horse underneath.

Rob

[Silver Charm]

I\'m pretty sure that\'s what I said \"No one on this Board will be betting him to Win at 3/5.\" Go read it again. I now know how RickB feels....

[mjellish]

Joe, I don\'t know for sure.  But this Belmont, to me, is a lot like 2004.  Now AP doesn\'t lay over the field like Smarty did, and his sheet says he backed up not moved forward in Preakness.  So I\'m not talking from the sheet patterns. I am talking from a tactical stand point.

To me, If no one goes AP probably does and they won\'t let him get away with that for too long.  And if he doesn\'t go someone else will and AP will lay close.  Now regardless, at some point on the back stretch, if you ask me, someone is going to make a mid race move.  The question then becomes will AP wait rather than move too early if need be, or does he go on too, pace be damned?

Add to this that Pletcher likes to send in this race, and he\'s probably got two in here, and I say the pace winds up being faster than what you would think.

So for me, race may set up for a deep closer to run well.

[jerry]

Good luck rating him. Funnycide came into the Belmont on the muscle and eager to go. Too eager. He spent his powder in the first mile. From what I see, AP could very well do the same. The only thing that gets him home will be a sloppy track ala Conquistador Cielo.

[pizzalove]

I worry that AP will go out to an easy lead.  Baffert will want the lead here.  AP didn\'t really power past any one in the Derby finishing in 27+.  The big question here is will the other morons concede this early lead.  Ran the derby without much of a challenge with a 105 Beyer (below Average).  I am wondering in the Preakness if he beat a very weak field.  I think his beyer here was a 102.  

And now another light field in the Belmont.  Worst triple crown series ever could produce the worst triple crown winner ever.

[Focus959]

What happened to the \"we\'re seeing something special\" crop, a la TGJB? That sure faded fast!

[Wrongly]

I can\'t get that 2004 Belmont out of my head and just get the vibe that we might see a repeat of that style of race with AP finishing 2nd.  Smarty regressed 3 points and Birdstone ran a 4 point new top.  In 2002 Sarva runs a 4 point new top, Palice Malice 4 point top to win the race, Tonalist a 2 point top.  So a 4 point top isn\'t out of the question, giving everyone a shot.  

When I look over the last few years the Belmont sets up as a stalkers race (29 races - 2 wire jobs, 22 stalkers, 5 closer).  That\'s another knock on AP for me, only 2 wire jobs Commendable and Da\'Tara.  

When I look over the last 10 winners I see stamina on the sire side for all but Da\'Tara.  Better yet are those that have some stamina on the dam sire line.  That gives me in order Frosted, Mubtaahij, Materiality, Keen Ice, Tale of Verve, Madefromlucky, Framento.

I really wanted to make a case for using Mubtaahij on top since I think he will be forwardly placed and can run all day but Frosted looks far more likely.

[rhagood]

Two different animals and two very different ways they trained/are training into the Belmont:
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2003-06-04/sports/0306040265_1_cide-belmont-fast-work

Not that any of this means he can still keep that stride the last 1/8th.
The KD is won by the 1/8th pole most of time by 1 1/8 horses.  The Belmont is won in the last 1/8th more often and with much closer finishes similar to turf racing without the bunched finish.

This race is an anomaly today and little wonder the hardest to handicap and wager.

[toppled]

That 105 below average Beyer was a well above average TG -3.  Get with the program.  
Just because you didn\'t like the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown doesn\'t make it the worst Triple Crown series ever.  At this point I think it\'s the best!