My Belmont bet

[TGJB]

On the contrary! That\'s as good an explanation of why horses bounce as you will ever see.

[sekrah]

AP might not reach .50-1 and Frosted probably won\'t reach 4.30-1 either.  Books have him at +500 and Mat +600. Also, the Belmont has significantly bigger handle than a G1 at Monmouth.

I still don\'t see how it\'s less than $40 for $2.

[sekrah]

Did miff even read that article or was he being sarcastic?

That\'s what most of us figured was behind the patterns all along.

[miff]

What are the fair odds prop for the top three betting choices running 1,2,3?

[miff]

Sek,

Read this other hypothesis years ago.None identify the individually of each horse, i.e they are NOT all the same in their ability to recover from stress. If you think a number on a piece if paper can identify stress, you are delusional.

Mike

[magicnight]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What are the fair odds prop for the top three
> betting choices running 1,2,3?

Where\'s Mathcapper when you need him ... Rocky??

[jerry]

As someone who follows price movement in exactas and doubles, the price action is grotesque. Doesn\'t matter which track. Which do you think is the bigger issue in thoroughbred racing, medication or pool integrity?

[TGJB]

Manson or Bundy?

[miff]

We can somewhat gauge drugs, pool integrity no way.

[TGJB]

If you think that\'s all we\'re doing, you are.

[jerry]

Oh yea? How about a -6?

[sekrah]

You don\'t examine the long-term conditioning patterns?  I thought the fact that some horses recover from hard races better than others was pretty standard sheets knowledge.

[miff]

JB,

Said stress can not be identified by a number on a piece of paper, that\'s indisputable.

Mike

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Only a slight chance of scattered showers for tomorrow bodes well for SR. Covello on Saturday. Buona Fortuna Jim. A beautiful day on tap for Saturday, if I wasn\'t 56 and grumpy I\'d sell my seats and hang in the backyard all day if I knew I could get cell and WiFi for sure?

I just did my racing form run through of Saturdays card before I mix in the
\"Kool Aide\" outside in the sun with a cocktail and am left in amazement at the opportunities!!!

The rumor mill is churning about the Desormeaux brothers traveling with an extra suit case for tomorrows Tremont?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TGJB]

On a percentage basis, in context, it can, and that\'s indisputable. See \"Thoro-Patterns\" for proof. But aside from that, all the things that affect this question are what we discuss in ROTW and handicapping-- how big the top is, time since, how the horse has reacted to previous tops. You are framing the question as a straw man-- we\'re not seeing an amount of stress in one number.

By the way, if the only way to make decisions was if you had first hand physical knowledge of the individual horse, it would be awful tough to bet horses. You would have to know not only about that one, but all the ones he\'s running against, too.

Likewise all other bets and investment decisions...