Is it safe for me to start posting again or....

[Bet Twice]

It\'s about the class JB, it all comes down to class!

[horsegoer]

\"Patterns and pedigree don\'t mean too much when horses move like that\".... As JB said...whaaaa. I do agree this horse moves very athletically and unlike many horses but his pattern says it all. extremely solid and tight. Might be the best looking pattern I\'ve seen...given the Belmont # which I know is good.

[TGJB]

Whether it\'s AP, Slumber or anyone else,it also helps if you bet horses that are fast enough to win. Very few people would look at Slumbers last race and know it was probably good enough to win the Manhattan-- except TG users. If they\'re not fast enough to win you can bet a lot of good movers that are working well without cashing.

[jbelfior]

I agree. I was confident that 1 1/4 was in his narrow window which is why I was hoping he didn\'t run at the snore.
But I don\'t end up betting him with the level of confidence that I did without knowing that his numbers stacked up pretty well with the rest of them.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

The big questions with Slumber were where he drew and would the rider make 114. Once the overweights came out he was a clear play to anyone who knew how to adjust the TG figures for the Manhattan for weight.

[jbelfior]

Day would have been even better if House Rules gets second. Untapable was leaning all over her in the lane and still got second.
Nice call in the seminar on Ut. She\'s not the same filly at 4.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

They could have made the Phipps part of the Pick 6 without bothering me at all.

[bellsbendboy]

JB,  Slumber runs pretty much the same race every time, at least from a TG standpoint.  Five of his last six figures equaled his lifetime best TG number which was exceeded perhaps two dozen times by the group he was facing.

No matter, the important factor here was the addition of blinkers.  Neither Mott nor his current conditioner could get this one over the hump.  First time ride by the boy in Kentucky, who apparently is very talented, probably suggested the shades, though the trainer took credit!

The word from JC on this ones work pushed many here, but I cannot locate a pattern read, speed fig, or anything else exclusive to the users.

As for what your forum\'s coming too... the best.  Sure separating the wheat from the chafe (where many place me) is a chore but its better than using \"conditioning moves\" as a handicapping tool  bbb

[TGJB]

As I said, if you knew how to adjust for weight. The figure Slumber has been running regularly(including at CD) was better than 50/50 to win with a neutral trip once you realized he was getting 1 1/2 points from the high weights and almost a point from the horses who ran second and third. Weight adjusted he was extremely fast, if the kid made the weight.

[Bet Twice]

Agreed.  Slumber jumped out as a huge overlay at the weights on tg.  The comments from JC on his work sealed the deal.  Not that I hit the late pick four or pick 6 but all were in reach on TG.  Every horse that came in was either an \"a\" or \"b\" in my pre-race assessment.....too bad my wagering structure stinks.  But still a profitable day.

[twaco]

Please guys, it\'s \"moot\", really.

[rhagood]

Re: distance and AP, I thought he was a winner and summoned Jim on a post after he went \"dark\" for back-up regarding pattern read based on a very tough Preakness number per Jerry. My only hesitation was his dam side distance shortcomings. The 3/4 and mile splits, a comfortable 1:13 2/5 and 1:37 4/5 -slower than his gallop out in the penultimate work.
Not to take anything away from AP but he had it easy, makes his own luck and had good luck with him in all 3 legs.  I would have preferred to have seen him challenged and really tested.  The last quarter faster than Secretariat was a function of pace or lack thereof.  Da\'Tara was the last wire to wire winner due in no small part to a slow uncontested pace. Previous triple crown attempts had resulted in a full second faster 3/4 splits on average than non attempts but this years version projected against that:
http://www.superscreener.com/is-american-pharoah-in-the-belmont-win-zone/
Here is a raw time analysis from FiveThirtyEight for what it\'s worth:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/american-pharoahs-a-superhorse-but-hes-no-secretariat/

[jerry]

Tough to tell from the way the rack was playing. Quick times and lots of front runners.

[miff]

RH,

Raw time analysis rather meaningless unless track speed was the same for all the races being compared, highly unlikely.

When Sec won the Belmont, the surface was cement and several track records were broken in that period.Fig makers at the time still had him very fast, from memory RAGS like TG neg-4.5 and Beyer like TG neg -11.The manner is which Sham was demolished verifies, to me, that Sec ran the fastest race ever(By sheet theory w/weight Dr. Fager had more than one race in that freak zone)

Not quite enough data from 40+ years ago to nail this down but the wow factor was evident back then when tracks were routinely glib/scraped on big days.Always recall very fast times on most big days in NY/Cali.

Mike