Upstart Vaults From Jim Dandy to Amory's Race, It Says Here

[Topcat]

Show me the moneeeeeeee . . . .

[TGJB]

We drew the rail, don\'t know much else yet. Supposedly Repole put two in.

[MonmouthGuy]

Upstart and Bravo on rail at Monmouth at this distance makes this a very interesting race all of a sudden.

[Topcat]

Leading us into the grand finale of Duck Soup . . .


Trentino: What did I call you?

Firefly: Gosh, I don\'t even remember what it was.
y
Trentino: Well, do you mean . . . worm?

Firefly: No, that wasn\'t it.

Trentino: I know . . . swine!

Firefly: Uh, uh.
          No, it was a seven-letter word.

Trentino:  Oh, yes . . . UPSTART!

Firefly:  That\'s it . ..  UPSTART!  (SLAP)

[MonmouthGuy]

This means WAR!

Look at how a miler like Coal Play almost pulled it off against Big Brown. Personally, I am not sure Upstart is a classic distance horse, but you don\'t need to be at Monmouth on Haskell day.

[ringato3]

Not sure why you think the rail is a big help.

The working theory that Upstart takes it to American Pharaoh out of the gate?  Somebody please point me to the race in the PPs where it looks like that can happen.

Will guess that he leaves for position, saves ground into the first turn, hopes somebody else goes after AP early (Competitive Edge if he runs here) and then attacks on the turn.

Being sensitive to the fact that the board owner is involved in the deal, very hard to get inspired about his chances off a horrendous effort in the Derby and with the benefit of hindsight, not sure how the Florida Derby is holding up as a fast race.  

The horse was so horrible in the Derby, \"distance\" wasn\'t the issue.  He stopped running after about 50 feet.  His two prior races can give credence to those that think he has distance limitations.  That said, 1 1/8 at Monmouth track, particularly on what is usually a souped up track on Haskell day surface, is hardly a huge distance test (huge test for sure in other ways, but the surface is kind to horses with some degree of distance limitation)

Hey, going after the money and the big boy at Monmouth certainly a sporty move by the connections.  Personally, I think he would have won the Jim Dandy and the gambler in me would have singled him there, whereas I will just watch him race at Monmouth.

Rob

[mjellish]

There\'s about 1.15 Million, and probably even a few more, reasons to run in the Haskell vs the Jim Dandy.  Even 2nd place in the Haskell is worth a ton of $, and almost as much as winning the Jim Dandy.

[Silver Charm]

Agreed and that\'s the first thing I thought when I heard of the switch in races. They already know he likes Saratoga. This is an easy ship down and back from his training base. AND they may be shipping in with the idea that they don\'t have to win off the layoff. Just run their race.

[TGJB]

Are you guys looking at the same sheets I am???

[jbelfior]

Bravo and the rail at MP. You\'ll be lucky to get 7/2 on him.

Saw Violette in Saratoga last weekend. Asked him how Upstart was doing. \"Working great, we\'re looking to get him going again.....Jim Dandy then hopefully the Travers.\"  

Not going to be pushing people out of the way to get to the window.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ringato3]

Joe B,

It is 2015, not 2008.

Bravo isn\'t even \"the man\" there anymore.  Paco Lopez is bet more than Bravo is.

The price won\'t be the problem.  pretty good chance that competitive edge goes off second choice, not Upstart.  Upstart hasn\'t won a race since the winter.  (March)

Pharaoh will be bet at least as heavily as Rachel was in the Haskell.  5-1 or so on Upstart shouldn\'t be a problem.

Winning the race will be a lot harder than getting the right price.

TGJB,

I see the sheets and from a purist sheet read, I guess I would be foaming at the mouth to bet Upstart at 5-1 or so against Pharaoh at 2-5 or lower.  The problem is that the sheet doesn\'t tell the whole story IMO.  

I don\'t care that AP ran a \"slow figure\" in the Belmont.  He, nor almost any other horse in our breed, is bred to run 1 1/2 on dirt.  He galloped and the slow pace he ran because Materiality was a can of shit, made a fast figure impossible.  His Preakness is another \"slow\" figure.  Not really, he speed popped the field and ran them all into the ground.  His Derby is his top and yet the connections claim he didn\'t like the track.  I don\'t know, from a \"performance assessment\", which we as handicappers have to do, I think the three triple crown races are about the same.  (factoring trip, speed figures, pace, etc.etc)

I figure him to run another race right in that range from a performance perspective.  Can he lose ground or be pushed on the pace Sunday?  Maybe.  

Which brings me to Upstart.  I know you said \"best sheet for a young horse that you have seen in many years, including Rachel\".  (sorry if I didn\'t get that exactly right, but I think you did post something similar to that.  Yep, can\'t question his 2 year old foundation and ability.  He ran really well.  When it comes to his 3-year old year, I am more skeptical now, with the benefit of hindsight.  I was on board that the Florida Derby was the top Derby prep race, by far.  Fastest horses, top competition.  and I bet accordingly thereafter.  Materiality has turned out to be awful, as many on this board predicted pre-Derby and I wasted time and money defending and betting on him.  Upstart was awful in the Derby and couldn\'t get by Materiality with a good trip in the Florida Derby (ground loss offset by dead speed track and outside bias that day).  His race before the Floriday Derby was OK, but geez, that was an awful surface and he looked exhausted the last quarter or so.  The race before was good, but 1 1/16th.  I don\'t know how good this horse is.  it is at least a fair question if he is a classic early developer that doesn\'t get better and has distance limitations.

That said, if I get 5-1 or so, I am likely to bet him.  i think I am getting compensated for the questions.

Rob

[jbelfior]

Rob:
What\'s the right price?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

I\'m letting some batting practice fastballs go here because we have a seminar up... but unless you (Ring) are taking the position Materiality ran the same in his next two as in the Fla Derby there\'s no reason to think his Fla Derby figure should be worse. What, everybody got it wrong 6 points, 20 on Beyer?

With 20 lengths to third and Materiality and Upstart running poorly after, it\'s far more likely that was a big one that cooked at least one of them (the one with little foundation, as discussed in the Derby seminar), and hopefully just one of them. Materiality not making a short field in the Jim Dandy certainly backs up this idea.

As for someone\'s comment about 1 1/8th, that\'s effin hilarious. You want to take a position a horse can\'t get a distance he hasn\'t tried yet okay, that\'s at least a conversation, if you do more than just make an assertion. But to claim a horse can\'t get a distance he\'s already run his top at is just nonsense, whatever happens Sunday.

There are questions concerning Upstart-- what happened in Ky, did the big Fla races cook him, how tight he is off a layoff, can he ship and run his race (hasn\'t yet in two tries). But not the ones being asked here.

[ringato3]

Joe

Tough question, at least for me.   U are talking about a stubborn stubborn person, who has been betting against American Pharaoh.   Maybe the only idiot that singled Tepin and used Slumber in the belmont day pick 4, but insisted on tossing Pharaoh.

I am still skeptical about how good AP is (see stubborn comment).

I think he wins the Haskell race about 50 to 60 percent of the time.   Since I think he goes off 1-5, I am compelled to bet against.

5-1 is fair on Upstart for me.

Rob

[MonmouthGuy]

I think AP is going to be 1-9 and Upstart 10-1+.