YES!!!!!!! Grand Arch ROTW!!!!!!!

[big18741]

Grand Arch finally got a calm ride/trip/setup

I\'ve been on him a few times going back to last year with no cashing and was very close to bailing Saturday if not for the ROTW push.

Ironicus looks tough moving forward if he catches a mile field with some pace.

[miff]

\"Ironicus looks tough moving forward if he catches a mile field with some pace


...no bet in there,Ironicus was tons the best.

[ringato3]

Mike,

How many times do horses like Ironicus look \"tons the best\" because they drop back to last, have to navigate traffic and/or circle the field.

I did have a bet, so I am biased, but if you looked at the PPs and the TG figs for the race, it was pretty clear King Kreesa would make the lead and Grand Arch was extremely likely to get a pocket trip and Ironicus would drop back to last, as he did in his previous race.  

I have to admit, without the TG figs, i am not using Grand Arch.  Very thankful he looked as good as he did on TG.  But I am never betting Ironicus in this situation.  Without TG, I \"stand\" with King Kreesa (and lose).  

Ironicus ran huge, agreed.  Better than the winner.  But he isn\'t tactical and HAS TO RUN HUGE to win, barring a parting of the red seas like he got in the Pimlico race.

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

All true.Stood with loose leader KK,can\'t bet winner or Jack Milton with their ground loaded figs, both empty in their prior starts but got big figs off ground loss.

The run Ironicus made was off the charts. Viciously fast into very real ground loss.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

I actually thought Ironicus had another forward move in him. The Pimlico race he looked like he was shot out of a bazzoka once he got room on the rail. And the last Allowance race was an easy race for him.

However the mistake you are making here Mike in your assertion is that Ironicus was \"tons the best\". He probably got the best figure but it was the best figure of his career and he needed it to just run 2nd.....AT 2-1 odds.

The winner had already run as fast (3 times) as Ironicus was going to have to prove he could run and the Winner was off AT 8-1 odds. I\'m guessing the winner got a 1 and the runnerup got a 0....in a ground loaded figure. The winner was TONS the better bet and over the long haul this is how you win.

[miff]

Silver,

My post referenced that Ironicus was tons the best in the race as it was run, not tons the best going into the race.Surprised that Ironicus was favored over King Kresa.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Rob,

A tenet that has held for fifty or so years is that deep closers, on turf, are at a severe disadvantage when the rail is out!

One of the many reasons I do not bet NYRA is that they run weekend stakes with huge rails.

bbb

[TGJB]

A tenet that YOU have held for 50 years.

[P-Dub]

We get the tenet stuff, and they are basically generalities.

I\'ve seen horses enter a race 1 for 32, and leave 2 for 33. We\'ve heard the TV analysts say after don\'t know how you could play him, blah blah. Never play a  horse that has just 1 win in over 25 starts.

I\'ve seen closers win with the rails out, and I do agree with your basic premise,

Its odds and probabilities. If you are getting compensated with a fair price, all of the tenets/assertions go out the window. If I can get a closer with solid numbers, at a fair price, with a contested pace, with the rails out....I\'m playing him.

I like playing maidens that are doing something different.  Adding/subtracting blinkers, distance switch, surface switch, adding lasix, etc...  I\'ve hit some very nice prices looking for this.  I need a price.  I could say its a tenet to play these horses. I have no data to back up these assertions,  They look awful on pure figures, I just know I\'ve hit some.

Its fine to use tenets/assertions to guide you, but thats all they should do. Be a guide. The tote board trumps all, and if you feel you are getting sufficient value for the risk thats all that matters.

[TGJB]

Now, that\'s a post. Nice.

[HP]

I googled \"turf rails out\" and see posts on this from bellsbendboy from 2006.  What I don\'t get is BBB saying he does not bet NYRA but if he has this insight why not bet with both hands if you know something about this that others may not?  

My quick conclusion was that this is yet another thing that should be included in the Racing Form?  I would think a one mile turf race with a rail out 25 feet is longer than one with no rail and that could affect final time?  Or how you would judge relative final times (and maybe fractional times) of horses?  I also think TG numbers may compensate for this to some degree by including run up but I\'m not quite sure how these factors (rails out and run up) may or may not work together. Maybe it\'s esoteric enough to give an edge to someone who kept close track of it.  

I can\'t see all of the posts and sites on this because of work firewall but most of what I read agrees with BBB, that the belief is that as the temp rail moves out it favors frontrunners.  John Piesen wrote something along these lines with some of HIS other tenets!  There was one guy who posted that he thought \"in my observation\" (I love wording like this because...who else\'s observation could it be if you aren\'t quoting someone?) closers were favored when they moved the rails out and he thought it was because it added distance to the race and helped the closers catch up because they had more ground to do it.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Now, that\'s a post. Nice.

Do you mean this in a general sense.......

....or do you mean.....\"Its about time THAT guy wrote a decent post\".

[TGJB]

I would say both, but after what you went through on the Rag board I haven\'t got the heart.

Re rails: unless the distance says \"about\", it\'s an exact distance. They move the start to compensate for the rail. In NY it\'s zero, 9 feet, 18 feet. We get the data from Equibase for every race at every track, at least the ones I do. If someone has data supporting an advantage to a certain running style with a certain layout I would like to see it.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would say both, but after what you went through
> on the Rag board I haven\'t got the heart.
>
> Re rails: unless the distance says \"about\", it\'s
> an exact distance. They move the start to
> compensate for the rail. In NY it\'s zero, 9 feet,
> 18 feet. We get the data from Equibase for every
> race at every track, at least the ones I do. If
> someone has data supporting an advantage to a
> certain running style with a certain layout I
> would like to see it.


LOL!!  I knew you would say both.

[HP]

That\'s very interesting because a bunch of the stuff I just read seemed to assume that the horses were running further if the rails were out but based on what you are saying they are not since \"they move the start to compensate for the rail.\"  They do post this on Equibase in scratches and changes page so if it helps you the info is there.