Beholder is Out

[Wrongly]

Bleed after working, Mandella said he hopes to have her back next year.

[mjellish]

There goes a lot of value in that race and the horizontals as I don\'t think many around here liked her much.  I know I didn\'t.  Man...

[P-Dub]

Just woke up and saw the alert on my phone. Agree 100%. She would have taken a lot of money.

I\'m not shocked about it, when you consider the fever and antibiotics since the last race. I\'m disappointed from a betting standpoint, but I\'m ok with it from a sporting standpoint. I didn\'t need to see her run and not be herself, and God forbid something bad happen to her.

It certainly takes a lot of the sizzle away from that race, but lots of opportunities this weekend.

Fantastic seminar by JB, looking forward to going through the data today. Hopefully we get some discussions going this year, last year the board was pretty quiet.

[TGJB]

F----g s--t. I told someone on this board I thought that might happen. She was a complete toss for me.

[shanahan]

had her running an \"off\" or \"X\" for sure, which would be 6th best on paper.  Not quite a negative 2.   Honor Code looks to run same for me - off or X.

[trackjohn]

Exactly my sentiments...Now...lucky to get 7/2 on Tonalist

[kurukshetra]

AP + Golden Horn will still take more than 50% of the horizontal pools ...still an opportunity if you can get both beat?

[Rick B.]

kurukshetra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AP + Golden Horn will still take more than 50% of
> the horizontal pools ...still an opportunity if
> you can get both beat?

I guess I\'d be on board with this if there were some
serious handicapping-based knocks on both of these
horses. I haven\'t really seen any, here or elsewhere.

IMO it is foolish to try to beat a favorite whose only
perceived flaw is that he is \"overbet\"...that is simply
a-wishin\' and a-prayin\' that something weird happens
and the fave gets beat. Handicapping, it ain\'t.

[TGJB]

It is most definitely handicapping, unless you think the horse has a 100% chance of winning. If you don\'t think so bring a deck of cards to Saratoga next summer and give me 6-1 on guessing the suit of the next card, 50 times in a row. Hey, I\'m 75% to be wrong each time, right?

[mjellish]

Remember having the same feeling when Casino Drive scratched out of the belmont and i already didnt like Big Brown.

[P-Dub]

It\'s odds and probability. Not having flaws doesn\'t mean you can\'t bet against them.

There is a horse in the Classic that has every right to beat AP and he will go off higher.

As for GH, he does have knocks, as pointed out in the seminar.

It\'s not a contest about being right. I can show you lots of losing sports handicappers that bet on favorites because they are the \"better team\". The point spread is the great equalizer, and the tote board at a race track serves the same purpose.

The chalk sports bettors will win their share, but lose overall. Same with horse racing, generally speaking.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is most definitely handicapping, unless youen
> think the horse has a 100% chance of winning. If
> you don\'t think so bring a deck of cards to
> Saratoga next summer and give me 6-1 on guessing
> the suit of the next card, 50 times in a row. Hey,
> I\'m 75% to be wrong each time, right?

I fully understand overlays and underlays in finite
situations like coin flips and decks of cards, but
horse racing? Very subjective stuff.

Betting against legit favorites (i.e., those with no
discernible handicapping knocks) because of perceived
short price is too risky for me -- I can get lucky and
have the legit favorite lose, and still not cash on the
race if I don\'t tab the winner. This game is already
hard enough without inventing new and unnecessary
frustrations.

[TGJB]

It\'s not about \"knocks\", it\'s about % chance of each horse winning, which may or may not be a function of \"knocks\". If you think a horse is 50% to win and he\'s 8/5 there\'s no reason to bet against him. If he\'s 1/2 there\'s an overlay someplace.

It makes no more sense to not bet against a favorite than to not bet against a second choice.

[kurukshetra]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I guess I\'d be on board with this if there were
> some
> serious handicapping-based knocks on both of
> these
> horses. I haven\'t really seen any, here or
> elsewhere.
>
> IMO it is foolish to try to beat a favorite whose
> only
> perceived flaw is that he is \"overbet\"...that is
> simply
> a-wishin\' and a-prayin\' that something weird
> happens
> and the fave gets beat. Handicapping, it ain\'t.

didn\'t like GH or AP before the beholder scratch

make believe (favourite) / minimum  10-1 in juvenile / found / tonalist 4 four fold accumulator pays with the bookmaker approximately 1344/1. consider that pick 4  pay generally at least 2x more than the book, certainly tomorrow with pool size, that is a respectable payout.

[T Severini]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bleed after working, Mandella said he hopes to
> have her back next year.


Sounds like she was fighting some type of lung issue.

I wanted to bet her, believing her to be the best \"horse\".  Was putting all my stock in Mandella to determine if she was a \"go\". Some here foresaw her withdrawal.

Either way you wanted to go, it\'s a shame all around.

Henny Hughes out of a Clever Trick mare is my recollection. Talk about a freakazoid. (Tricky Creek mare.)