Ask The Experts

In a 20 horse field it is impossible to devine who will get an untroubled trip.
It is not difficult, however, to predict that a large percentage of the field will lose ground around the turns. The single most likely horse to save ground and run a shorter distance to the wire is easy to identify.

Take Charge Indy should get a rail since his rider wants the wood and the 2 inside horses will not show speed. Trinniberg will clear the field by at least 2-3 lengths unless Hansen cannot be rated. I believe Bodemeister will attempt to rate in the 2 or 3 path. He will have Hansen to his immediate outside unless Hansen is too headstrong. Gemologist and I\'ll Have Another figure to be on the outside in relatively close attendance. Union Rags will be forced to show more speed, but should not be in front of Take Charge Indy. The horses in the next flight should be Alpha, Went the Day Well and El Padrino.

As I see the race, Take Charge Indy will be on the rail and 4-6 lengths off the lead as they spin out of the first turn. If it works out this way, Take Charge Indy will have an obvious advantage over the wide runners and those who will have to weave through the field. Accordingly, Take Charge Indy will be on all my tickets along with Daddy Nose Best.  The latter has been training great and has the foundation and running style to be a major factor.

Alm:

Just to be clear. The purpose of my post was to point out that Dosage Theory has in recent years been a reverse barometer of Derby performance. In other words, horses who don\'t qualify under Dosage are statistically more likely to run well than those who do qualify. I was also asking others to provide some examples to help prove this point.

Since I am in agreement with your position, I didn\'t understand why you would be \"snarky\" toward me. In any event, I recognize that you have strong opinions and respect your passion for the game. So, should we actually disagree on something in the future, I am hopeful that you will pay me the same respect.

Albany

I believe that the only likely starter in this year\'s Derby with a Dosage Index (DI) above 4.0 is Dullahan. The dosage proponents would, therefore, assert that Dullahan is not bred to go the Derby distance. Interesting assertion in light of the fact that Dullahan\'s dam has already produced a Derby winner in Mine That Bird!

In recent years very few Derby starters have DIs above the 4.0 level. Yet, I believe that several of these runners have won or run well. From a statistical viewpoint, they were more likely to run well than the majority of starters who qualify under the dosage theory.

Does anyone have the statistics pertaining to the performance of recent Derby runners with DIs above 4.0?

Guess I have a differeent take on the race.

Gemologist was nicely placed tracking a moderate pace. He picked up the bit after being rigorously urged on the turn, got to the lead and held well to secure the win. His race was a good one.

Contrary to Gemologist\'s run, Alpha experienced difficulty as he was steadied along the rail on the first turn and was forced to move a bit early to get position after his misfortune. Alpha made a good run given his problems and a layoff since February 4th.

If Gemologist had to overcome the problems experienced by Alpha and the latter had the conditioning edge and trip Gemologist enjoyed,  would the order of finish been the same?

Thanks, I\'ll check the replay when I get to the track.

Jimbo:

Nice read on the pace. I felt that Giant Oak raced well even though he went very wide and didn\'t get an ideal set up. Lost a fair size straight bet, but underneath play helped me avoid a major financial reversal.

Albany

I\'ve seen Giant Oak training and he has been impressive. The Whitney is filled with horses who run on or near the lead. Giant Oak often is forced to close into  soft early fractions. This will not be the case on Saturday.