Can Pioneer of the Nile Do It?

[Uncle Buck]

After quickly glancing over the Derby contender sheets, I\'m wondering why Pioneer of the Nile can\'t make the same jump up that IWR did when he got off poly and onto dirt. Choc Candy too for that matter. Seems more than possible to me. If either of them do make that same jump up, it\'s game over IMO

[ajkreider]

Sure, they can.  But, but the race is shaping to favor the different running styles of IWR and QR, who will be much closer to the front, probably off a very manageable pace.  POTN\'s trainer thinks he\'s more of a turfer, which makes the move up less likely.  And of course we know how fast IWR and QR are on the dirt - we don\'t need to guess.

So, the question isn\'t if they can, it\'s is it worth the bet?  If POTN is 9-1 and QR 6-1, I\'m thinking probably not. CC at 15-1?  Maybe, as people who seem to know say his pedigree says a move up is more probable.

[Uncle Buck]

So you\'re saying Baffert said POTN is a turfer? Where did he say that? I missed it. POTN\'s last drill wasn\'t very turfer-like. I smell a big forward move from both he and CC. We will see. I\'d like to see a link to the Baffert quote if you can find it. Thanks

[jimbo66]

Buck,

It wasn\'t Baffert, it was Billy Mott, who trained the horse last year.  

Baffert drills all his horses fast.  If you liked POTN before the workout, then so be it, but I would not let a fast workout from a Baffert trainee influence you, especially when the workout is on the same synthetic surface that he has been running on and not dirt.

This handicapper would be very surprised by a move up from POTN.  Mott is a solid horseman and wanted this guy on turf.  Baffert has run him 3 times on poly and not tried the dirt.  I am not much for visual handicapping (because I have no eye for it), but I have read several experts say this horse has not developed at all physically from 2 to 3 and his figures support that claim.  POTN off the board in the derby.

Chocolate Candy might be a different story.  Based on breeding, he appears a better candidate for a move-up on dirt.  

Interesting that GG\'s agent is taking so long to decide between Dunkirk and POTN.  Now that Dunkirk is obviously going to get in, I would have expected a decision.  Hard to say whether the indecision is a sign that POTN is better than some of us think or that GG is not as high on Dunkirk as some of us are.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo good point but I would expect a decision fairly soon.

Gomez has no reason to rush but it is really Baffert and Co who are hoping and waiting.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo one more thing.

POTN has put more money in Gomez pocket than Dunkirk. And the owner has put a bundle into the game.

A pound of loyalty can get a ton of respect......

[Old Mr. Boston]

The race shape is going to favor those close to the pace, therefore CC is the bet.......HUH

[toppled]

Dunkirk has a workout scheduled for this weekend, POTN might have one too, I\'m not sure of that.  I\'m thinking he just wants to wait until the weekend works are out of the way so that if something goes wrong in the workout he\'s not giving up 2 horses and is left with none.  I think he\'ll pick Dunkirk if his workout confirms his fitness.

[Ace]

Jon White of HRTV has already said that POTN is as likely a Triple Crown winner as we\'ve seen in recent years.  That\'s high praise, and Jon is a smart guy.  He will run well on dirt, I am confident of that.  My gut says that Gomez rides POTN. We\'ll find out this weekend, I guess.

[ajkreider]

No, of the two, POTN and CC, CC is the better bet because

a) his pedigree says move-up is more likely
b) he will be longer odds

Given the expected race shape and the lack of speed shown (relatively speaking), I wouldn\'t play either at similar odds as IWR and QR.  But CC should be a significantly better value (POTN won\'t be) - and that makes betting on a big move-up from CC something to consider.

Hope that clears it up.

[miff]

\"Interesting that GG\'s agent is taking so long to decide between Dunkirk and POTN. Now that Dunkirk is obviously going to get in, I would have expected a decision. Hard to say whether the indecision is a sign that POTN is better than some of us think or that GG is not as high on Dunkirk as some of us are\"


...also, since any horse can spoil overnight, they are waiting as long as they can in case one goes bad.

Mike

[mlnolan00]

That\'s what an industry guy said on the Horse Racing Radio Network live show this morning.
Also said Alan Garcia rides Desert Party and Regal Ransom\'s skipping Derby and going to the Preakness.
 
Has not yet been confirmed, so maybe take with a grain of salt...

[toppled]

Maybe he got his Derby package.  When I look at the 2 sheets I can\'t see how he could not pick Dunkirk.  First off Dunkirk has run significantly faster than Pioneerof the Nile.  Then for those hoping for a big move up on dirt, you better look at the TGIs for Empire Maker.  Although Empire Maker has a 4 point better win percentage on dirt over poly with a 9 point better ITM % on dirt, his TGI is better on synthetics than dirt, off tracks & turf.  If the TGI is a good indication, do not expect a move up on dirt for POTN.

[big18741]

None of this comes as a surprise.

Gomez waited on the Dunkirk work today-59.90

Godolphin always viewed Desert Party as the better of the two and more suited for 10 f\'s.

Time to start digging for horses to run underneath Quality Road if he works solid next week.

[Uncle Buck]

So who does Zayat and Baffy put up on POTN? Victor Espinosa please