Can Pioneer of the Nile Do It?

[covelj70]

hah, this is too funny....now you are carrying my 200lbs on your back...no good for you

[big18741]

Well I like Quality Road on top pending the next 10 days.

If we come up with the same under stuff-we might both be in trouble.

[MonmouthGuy]

I thought Gomez rode Court Vision for Zayat and Col John wound up with Nakatani who tried the patented 6 wide Santa Anita synth move around the far turn and flattened out immediately.

Otherwise, I agree completely with the analysis/comparison.

[congaree1]

I have a hard time POTN, will win the race. He is a very nice horse, but slower horses usually don\'t win the derby. Giacomo, won the race, because IMO, the race fell apart like I don\'t think I\'ve ever seen. If he wins, congrats to the connections.. The two big horses, Revenge and Quality really lay over this field. Doesn\'t mean I will bet them, but I\'m having a hard time trying to key anything else in the top spot... West Side Bernie ran his but of in the Wood and he is likely going to be on my tickets, 2nd and third. He clearly didn\'t like polly and I actually bet him in the Wood.. Friesan Fire is interesting, but 7 weeks and his last was in the slop and is I guess, if he would have run a better race on a dry track.. But the trainer does have ways to get horses ready for stakes races..

[Silver Charm]

>Also, he had a pedigree that seemed like it was more suited to dirt than POTN does.

Where does it say that? His sire Empire Maker was second in the Derby and won the Belmont. His dam was a freak for about three races at CD of all places. I beleive won the LaTroienne Derby Week.

If you guys are so smart then why is Ron Anderson so stupid???

[congaree1]

What are you talking about Silver?

[MonmouthGuy]

Last year, GG chose the slow plodder Court Vision over the likely second choice Colonel John.

Do you think that this is because Anderson thought Court Vision had a better chance to win, or do you think Anderson reminded Garrett where his bread is buttered.

Court Vision and PoTN = Zayat.

[Silver Charm]

Court Vision + Gomez = IEAH

[jimbo66]

Silver,

I don\'t think anybody said Ron Anderson is stupid.  The fact is that I don\'t think that many on this board, yourself included, were predicting that GG would take POTN over Dunkirk.  As for the breeding comment, I am no expert, but Empire Maker, despite his own prowess on dirt, seems to be throwing better synthetic runners and grass runners (according to the \"breeding handicappers\").

I am certainly not on the \"inside\" of this game, but it would seem to me that when it comes to choosing their derby mounts, the top jockeys go with what they believe will give them the best chance to win. Loyalty would be the \"tiebreaker\".  I think the innuendo on this board about GG being paid money by the Arabs to choose POTN is pure malarkey.  How much would you have to pay a jockey that has never won the derby to get off a good derby mount?  And with the margin so little between one top jockey and another (GG vs Prado), why would anybody make that kind of bribe.

If Anderson uses Rags, as some suggested, POTN looks better than he does on TG.  He has a TG equivalent of a \"1\" for his 2  year old top and one point of development this year with a forward looking pattern.  Dunkirk looks about the same on Rags as he does on TG, so it was likely a tough call for Anderson and Gomez.  They went with the horse with the foundation and the four Grade 1 wins as opposed to the horse without a stakes win but SLIGHTLY better figures.

Or, perhaps they know something about how Dunkirk is working out.  But let\'s discount the bribe of tons of money and 40 virgins to ride POTN.....

[Sandreadis]

the poster boy for poly to dirt flops? Didn\'t he put that to rest by winning the Mid-Summer Derby? I know he worked fast at CD but it seemed pretty obvious he was spinning his wheels in the sand at CD. Other than the Triple Crown races, CJ won the biggest DIRT race for 3YO\'s in the world.
I think CJ\'s performance in the Travers should reflect positively on POTN and his chances in the Derby,not negatively as most of you are implying.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo only three days ago you were posting about how \"experienced observers\" noticed that POTN has not developed physically at all since his two year old season.

Now he is being chosen because he has such a great foundation

Which one is it?

Also only 40 Virgins? I heard 69....

[jimbo66]

Silver,

The points aren\'t mutually exclusive.  POTN\'s two year old foundation is not really debatable.  He had a number of solid races and a Grade 1 win.  That doesn\'t mean he developed from 2 to 3.

I would not have chosen the horse and I am negative on his chances.  In that last post I am playing devil\'s advocate and espousing on why Anderson/Gomez chose him.  

As for the \"experienced horsemen\" comment, no big secret.  I read a piece written by one of the DRF writers and then Brad Thomas commented on his lack of physical development during his Saturday night thoroughbred update on the Meadowlands harness show.  As I said though, not my observation, as I have no eye for horse flesh.

[covelj70]

First of all, I am definitely not smart so let\'s start there, if I was, I would have given this game up along time ago.

Second, POTN is by a lord at ware mare.  That\'s why Mott started him on the turf and why Mott commented some time ago that he thought he moved better on the turf and poly than on the dirt.

[Frank]

The Arabs? Zayat\'s a Jersey resident. Bribe? Why is paying a jockey to ride your horse a bribe? Happens every weekend in our sport. Nothing wrong with it, is there? It\'s not like he chose a outsider over a mortal lock anyway. He chose one contender over another contender.

[covelj70]

a few thoughts on this:

1) it\'s an example of how not all horses move up going syn to dirt like is widely being expected for POTN.  Col John ran a 3 in his last syn race pre derby and a 3 in the derby.  The 1 he ran in the Travers represented natural development

2) I actually think what Col John accomplished in the Travers is a perfect example of why it\'s so dangerous to try dirt for the first time in a 20 horse field going a distance that none of them have ever gone before.  There are already enough new variables thrown at these horses in the Derby.  Having one additional variable of dirt kicked in the face for the first time isn\'t a good idea.  Col John handled the dirt alot better in his second try.  Arguably, Papa Clem did the same in the Ark Derby (although there are other explanations possible for his big figure improvement as well with the slop)

Only a super horse could handle all of the new variables including first time dirt and still win this race and I am willing to play against POTN being a superhorse at 6-7 to 1.

If he wins, no one will be more impressed than me but he will have to beat me at low odds when there are so many other interesting candidates