Can Pioneer of the Nile Do It?

[covelj70]

Quality Road is going to be the toughest of all of the favs to leave off my ticket so I want to see his post and final work and then see him in the flesh for myself down at CD but....


....Haskin\'s comments today that no horse has ever won the Derby with only 4 lifetime starts reminded me that this horse doesn\'t have alot of foundation.

I know Big Brown did it with only 3 last year but he was a freak against weak competition.  Why do I want to take 4-1 on a horse that would be doing something for the first time ever?

also, he did bounce pretty good in the Fla Derby and showed signs (i.e. weight loss) that the big effort took alot out of him so, at 4-1, I am willing to bet that he won\'t get there.  

Tough call but that\'s how I am leaning unless he knocks me over physically next week.

[Ace]

How does this analysis reflect on Colonel John\'s full brother Mr. Hot Stuff, who apparently is going to make the field?  I\'m not sure what his TG figures are- haven\'t bought the sheets yet, but will.  I have a Vegas future book bet on this guy at 75-1.  I regret I couldn\'t get him at 96-1 in Pool 3, thank you TwinSpires.com for denying me the opportunity.

[MonmouthGuy]

In my opinion, Col John\'s Travers fig still wouldn\'t have been competitive last May at Churchill. (Maybe it moves him from 6th to 4th assuming all other horses run the same figs with the same trips).  The improvement was likely due to the fact that he was a more mature horse in August.  He still wasn\'t fast.

[miff]

\"The Arabs? Zayat\'s a Jersey resident. Bribe? Why is paying a jockey to ride your horse a bribe? Happens every weekend in our sport. Nothing wrong with it, is there? It\'s not like he chose a outsider over a mortal lock anyway. He chose one contender over another contender\"

Frank,

Very Correct. On occasion,when Jerry Bailey was thought to be God(he wasn\'t), he received either more than the normal 10% or a \"bonus\" just to ride a certain mount.I think that money had little to do with the selection of POTN.In NY there are all sorts of money figs being tossed around re Anderson/Gomez/Zayat.

My read is that they saw more negatives in Dunkirk for reasons we may never know.It still makes no sense to me that they would choose a slower horse that may not be able to stand up on dirt over one they rode in a fast/impressive performance.


Mike

[covelj70]

I think Mr. Hot Stuff, like Col John, will be better as he gets older.  He hasn\'t run fast enough yet and a huge jump forward isn\'t likely.

However, there is NOTHING wrong with him at 75-1.  I can poke all kinds of holes in horses in this derby at 5-1 so no reason to go overboard on the negatives of a horse at 75-1.

  Good luck.

[dlf]

Cove-
We had a Derby winner in 2002 out of a Lord at War mare. Same trainer, too, sort of.

Also, I remember a horse that Bill Mott had that he also initially thought was more suited for turf - Cigar.

Which is not to discount your reasons for going against POTN at 8-1, but I don\'t know if these are the two you want to hang your hat on.

[covelj70]

totally fair comment about Billy, he thinks all of the horses are better on turf.  He trained one for me that he thought \"looked better on turf\" and when I asked him if he had brezzed her on the turf yet, he said \"no, I just think she will be better there\"

That\'s just his natural bias and who am I to question what he thinks/says/does, the dude is a Hall of Famer and I am a poor fat guy trying to figure out which favs to toss out of the Derby.

thanks for the thoughts

[miff]

POTN has a pretty fast half brother Forefathers(Gone West)who is much better on dirt(had one turf try)

Mike

[dlf]

Cove -
I\'m very high on POTN (and yes, I bought the special), so I\'m interested in hearing different voices. But his pedigree looks solid to me, for reasons I, and others, have already stated.
And lots of folks are making the Colonel John comparison, which is valid, but only to a certain extent, I think. Last spring, lots of horses were coming east from Cali (Tiago, Zenyatta, Gayego, Intangaroo, etc.), some having never run on dirt, and winning big races. Colonel John, of course, did not add his name to that list. But he lost because he wasn\'t fast enough, not because of the surface switch. So don\'t you think it\'s a bit too early to establish  that a horse going first time dirt will not win the Derby?
All that being said, I know that he looks way too slow on the Figs!

Miff - Excellent point on Forefathers - I forgot about that. He ran a -0.5 at 3, and a -1.5 at 4, both routes (not sure if they were 1 or 2 turn races, though)

[miff]

All that being said, I know that he looks way too slow on the Figs!



....yes, but they are only synth figs,so we need to guess how fast he can run on dirt, as if there aren\'t enough factors already.


Mike

[HP]

I am interested in this because by my count there are six other horses in here that are faster than Pioneer of the Nile that stand a chance and will be much longer prices.  Not to say that these six horses don\'t have some holes as well, but the holes don\'t include \"not fast enough,\" which definitely applies to POTN.  We\'ll see how the tote goes...

[miff]

Pioneerof the Nile takes to the Churchill dirt
By Mike Welsch - Posted 12:36 pm
 
On a busy morning when five potential Derby starters trained at Churchill Downs, including possible favorite I Want Revenge, DRF clocker Mike Welsch tabs Pioneer of the Nile for his work of the day and believes he will have no problem handling conventional dirt.

[pizzalove]

I would have to agree.  I am stunned at the attention for POTN.  Just because Papa Clem and IWR have done well after switching from synth is no guarantee he will.  Throw in the fact that he is yet to run fast enough and you have a complete throwout here.  Never run on dirt and not fast enough, hmmmm, sounds like a 50-1 horse.  The less then 10-1 you will get is a crime.

[jimbo66]

Pizzalove,

The \"not fast enough\" comment is irrelevant.  THis is NOT the problem.  If I had a dollar for every synthetic horse that was not fast enough on TG figures, to win a dirt race, and then they won the dirt race, I would be pretty well off.  The question is simply can he run on dirt?  That\'s it.  And what are the clues?

Covelj,

I retract my comment about your odds line being \"way off\" when you talked about Pioneer of the Nile being 5-1 in the Derby.  As I read one glowing workout report after another, and I then read about I Want Revenge had another mediocre workout and Quality Road is at Belmont \'recovering from the quarter crack\", you may very well be right.  Pioneer of the Nile might go off 2nd choice here.  

Welsch from the DRF has got a very good eye for workouts, as least IMO.  The fact that he is now saying that he has no doubt that POTN will run at least as well on dirt as he did on synthetic is a very interesting statement.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Certainly not necessary to offer the retraction but very thoughtful of you.  You\'re alot of fun to do this with.  Thanks

I put alot of stock in these workouts and physical appearance and the fact that some of the other favroties (i.e. IWR and Choc Candy) don\'t seem to be doing as well and POTN seems to be thriving at CD is definitely reason for me to take notice.  

As has been stated here previously by a thoughtful poster, there\'s no reason to throw out every favorite as one of the top few will hit the board somewhere and so if I can throw out IWR, CC, Dunkirk then I can fit POTN, QR and FF in there somewhere on my ticket along with the ones I really like and still make it affordable. I don\'t think POTN, QR and FF will win but I can hedge just a bit with them since I am feeling more confident throwing the other top choices out.