I say we have a HOTY do over

[smalltimer]

Mike,
Can you spin that one to show a closers advantage Saturday?

[Rick B.]

Paul,

See, now, your last post is NOT strictly \"expressing an opinion about Zenyatta\" -- it\'s you sour-graping about the fact that not everybody here has fallen at Zenyatta\'s feet they way you and her other supporters have; that sort of meta-discussion is what generates comments about \"powdering and diapering\" that are well within justification...whether you happen to like it or not.

Rick

[Rick B.]

Hah! Don\'t need to revoke any purses when Zenyatta\'s trainer pulls a brain fart like he did this weekend.
 
If he controls his zeal to beat a suspect Rachel and leaves Zardana at home, RA walks the track Saturday at Fairgrounds, and probably goes on to Oaklawn...where the consensus seems to be that she would have gotten thumped by Zenyatta.

Instead, his second-stringer beats RA, Sherriffs wins a ham sandwich (comparatively speaking, of course), Asmussen / Jackson pull RA from the Apple Blossom...and Moss is racing next month for 60% of $500K instead of $5 Million.

A $2.7 million dollar \"premature track expectation\" (or something like that). Smoove!

[miff]

Small,

No spin,Z inhaled the Sisters Of The Poor in spite of speed doing well in routes.Fyi, that was the only time the track profile was against her in 6 starts and, drumroll please, she didnt\' run that fast AGAIN!

Thought Rachel wasn\'t 85% of her old self and no excuses are acceptable. World Champion freaks do not get beat by slugs unless they are VERY short,hurting, ill or not the same horse which cannot be concluded from one sub par performance.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Miff,

If, Zenyatta is so slow...how\'s come the greatest filly of all time is calling in sick again?  Didn\'t she just take a powder last year when the Z connections said \"come on down.\"??  

Eventually, hopefully, they\'ll meet once or twice this year and we\'ll see if Zenyatta can only run a 0 or a -1.  Somebody is gonna win and somebody is gonna lose.  Maybe more than once.  

Mike, I generally enjoy your posts, even though your facts are usually skewed.

Peace out

[nyc1347]

wouldnt this be considered a redboarding comment?

[miff]

\"If, Zenyatta is so slow...how\'s come the greatest filly of all time is calling in sick again? Didn\'t she just take a powder last year when the Z connections said \"come on down.\"??


Small,

The answer is obvious, Z is not that slow, she\'s just never run as fast as Rachel, period. If Z did run as fast, what was the race, I missed it.

Rachel is not at the top of her game, calling in sick,is pure nonsense. Why would the connections be afraid of Z if Rachel was at her best.Let\'s see Z ship and beat a runner, I\'d like to see it on dirt.

Mike

[smalltimer]

Z shipped to OP and ran a winning race, under wraps.

I\'d also love to see Rachel ship to California and beat a runner, I\'d like to see it on artificial, and I\'d like to see her pack some serious weight.  Fair enough?

P.S.  What Rachel did last year is irrelevant, there are no guarantees that she can recapture that level anytime soon.  

Thats it for Rachel and Zenyatta.  I look forward to their meeting.  

Can you tell me what Zardana\'s TG number was on Saturday?  I missed it.  Her previous numbers were (T) 6,6,7,6,5,5 and AW 4,5.  Did she jump up on dirt cause I know she\'s not quite as good as Zenyatta.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul,
>
> See, now, your last post is NOT strictly
> \"expressing an opinion about Zenyatta\" -- it\'s you
> sour-graping about the fact that not everybody
> here has fallen at Zenyatta\'s feet they way you
> and her other supporters have; that sort of
> meta-discussion is what generates comments about
> \"powdering and diapering\" that are well within
> justification...whether you happen to like it or
> not.
>
> Rick


Wrong again Rick. No sour grapes at all. Just pointing out facts. You and your boys point to a couple big figures, don\'t take into account that synthetic and turf numbers are slower than dirt figs, and take it from there.

I really don\'t give a crap about your little put downs, you seem to be the one with the complex....whether you like it or not.

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"FYI,in Zenyatta\'s previous 5 performances(track profile for her last not available) there has been a closers bias every time.That confirmed by the best \"bias\" data available.\"

  There was a closers route bias on June 27th at Hol? Miff, there was only one synthetic two-turn race run that day, and it was won by Zenyatta. The 2nd-place finisher was the frontrunner Briecat, who was the 4th choice in the wagering. And frontrunners ran well in one-turn races all over the card--in literally every race there was a good performance from a frontrunner. And the previous route race (the day before) was won by a frontrunner at 7-1.

A closers bias? Please do me a favor and check the charts from June 27 before we move on to May 23 at Hollywood, which I find even more interesting.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wrong again Rick. No sour grapes at all.

Yes...just like the majority of your posts over the last few months, all sweetness and light, no sarcasm, no bitterness. No sour grapes. Not you. Just plain, unemotional facts.
 
It\'s me. I\'m wrong.

[miff]

Rich,  

Both days were closers bias June 27th(114) May 23rd (100) even more severe.What else??


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"Both days were closers bias June 27th(114) May 23rd (100) even more severe.What else??\"

I guess this means you don\'t want to read the results charts for yourself, as I suggested. OK. You are giving me nameless bias \"experts\" and the numbers 114 and 100. I think I\'ll counter that with the numbers 126 and 134. No. Make that second number 135. Yeah,135. Take that, Miff! And please let me know if you ever change your mind about wanting to look at the results charts.

[P-Dub]

You got the last word, congrats.

[miff]

Rich,

On many occasions,determining bias is not as simple as looking at the charts.Like anything you study in detail, you find subtleties.There are real sneaky running style/path biases on occasion and on others,it\'s pretty obvious.It\'s like only looking at raw time to determine if a race was fast/slow.

One service I use looks very closely at cushion depth,individual runners,pace duels/pressures and overall race dynamics.They use gate break, position after an 1/8, then a quarter etc.There are several variations of their formula which are used by others.They make one figure for both routes and sprints, I break out NY sprints/routes to separate numbers for myself.

I note you used pace call in one of your posts, they do not think pace call is the most accurate point to use, nor do I.In any event, if you feel that Z was \"beating\" a speed bias in many of her races, you\'ve got a scoop. The bias guys have it the opposite way,probably except Sat.

Re Z,there is no question in my mind that on more than one occasion,she would have been beaten on an \"honest\" synth surface as opposed to those which favored her big late run, fairly consistently.Can\'t imagine they could engineer a better horse than Z on synths. She may be unbeatable on synth since most fast dirt runners trying her out in Cali would probably not be able not transfer their ability.

Lets leave this until Z ships to a few dirt tracks and inhales non Cali female slug-ettes,then we\'ll crown her.I\'m betting she gets waxed against the first fast/salty bunch she meets on dirt.Like to see her meet the good Rachel/Quality Road and others at the Spa.


Mike