Not For Nuthin...

[TGJB]

On Ragozin, Dublin\'s last is only 1/2 point worse than Eskenderaya\'s last.

Makes sense to me.

[jimbo66]

Yikes,

That is a mess.  Obviously wrong, but Dublin has to be this year\'s \"king of the phony big wide figure\" horse.  This horse was 3w/3w from the 2-hole at Arkansas.  Can\'t imagine what kind of trip he gets in the Derby.  

He doesn\'t look bad on TG either (not to Esky\'s level), but you could argue his pattern is pretty good, with paired tops and being as fast as anybody but Eskendereya.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- there are a couple of other horses a point or two faster than Dublin. But as far as the ground goes, both horses were roughly 3w3w last time.

Not quite Street Sense getting the same Rag number for his Derby and Blue Grass, but pretty bad.

[jimbo66]

The Street Sense Derby/Blue Grass may be the best example in the last 5 years of getting the variant wrong.

But if I was a user of Rags, the number of examples where the variant was OK, but the ground loss for each horse was off siginificantly, would actually bother me more (because it is the mechanical and scientific part of the process and there should be no errors).

I don\'t remember those examples, but they had been posted here over the years.

[jbelfior]

Not sure what to make of Dublin. Honest colt who appears to be one of those money earners/money burners. He needs to do a better job of handling turns and it does not bode well for his chance in that he failed to pass a bearing out SS and an allowance front runner.
I would argue that Rule\'s figure is more impressive .

Good Luck,


Joe B.

[toppled]

The thing that bothers me the most about Dublin is, if you look at the TGIs of his many siblings, many that were sired by router influence sires, they\'re all better sprinters.  The sheet #s would put him in the exotics, but all those sprinting siblings & the hanging in the stretch at Oaklawn has me leaning toss.

[flushedstraight]

Dublin\'s pro/con arguements seem relatively obvious and agreeable (for this board). For me at least, the question to use or toss comes down to price, i.e. with his figures he is useable as a tri and super key at a big price. I assumed with a no-name jock and his 2nd and 3rds this year he\'d be a bomb but maybe not according to some. Looks like it could be a race day decision; 30-1 seems fair value. I don\'t see how TG (or Rags!) users could toss him out at a bigger price considering the pros (esp. consistency on dirt) and the all or nothing nature of the polys.

[jimbo66]

I set the over/under for Dublin at 20-1.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I set the over/under for Dublin at 20-1.


I think that\'s too high Jim. 13 to 15-1 maybe. Could be wrong, but the horse just looks so good on the track, and he\'s been flying in the morning.

[jimbo66]

Alright Michael,

I guess that means you are \"down for a beer\" at Saratoga on the \"under\".

[sekrah]

I\'m with Jimbo here.. closer to 20.. I would of actually guessed 22-24.   I can name 6 horses for sure he\'ll be behind IMO:

Esky
LAL
Sidneys Candy
Ice Box
Endorsement
Rule

and another two that could slip ahead of him:  Conveyance, Super Saver


How many 8th or 9th choices are less than 20-1 in a 20-horse Derby where there\'s a clear 2-1 favorite?   Not many.   The 8th choice in 1998 was Visionaire at 25-1.

In 2005 when Bellamy Road was 5/2, only 6 choices were cheaper than 20-1.

[jack72906]

He\'ll be behind Rule and Ice Box until the 8th pole when both of them start dropping off the radar.

[sekrah]

Um, I clearly meant on the toteboard.

[flushedstraight]

Sekrah, you\'re referring to 2008 with Visionaire. Also that year Denis of Cork was 27-1 in that weak field and he won the Southwest unlike Dublin and he also had Borel. Plus, he was the rage at CD leading up to the race according to blood horse

Denis of Cork has been a hot topic on the backstretch at Churchill Downs in the days leading up to the Derby where his sharp workouts and aggressive morning gallops marked him as major contender for the 134th Kentucky Derby

and since when does Lucas get bet in the derby? When push comes to shove no public handicapper will have to guts to pick him and he\'ll be forgotten by post time.

[sekrah]

I agree.. I don\'t think there\'s a chance Dublin goes off cheaper than 20-1.  I\'m all in on the over on jimbo\'s bet.

Horses showing 0 wins, 1 place, 2 shows, 2 OTM\'s in their last 5 don\'t get bet in the Derby.

Hell, I forgot about Awesome Act, both may go off higher than Dublin as well.  Dublin could be 10th or 11th choice, easy.  To the layman, he looks even much worse than American Lion, Jackson Bend, Line of David, Paddy O\'Prado,