Preakness by yours truly =) - You know what time it is?!

[nyc1347]

ITS PEANUT BUTTER JACKSON BEND TIME!


horse developed beautifully last year..  Came out this year perfectly in line with all his efforts and has shown an on and off pattern.  KEY NOTE though is that his last race was run in the slop which was his first ever and the race was also BLAZING fast...his pattern already suggested that he would toss in that off effort anyway and an \"8\" with those sloppy conditions (his first) and h_pace is not a surprise to me at all. im putting a huge X across that last number as that thoro number has no representation for what this horse has shown to us this year.   By doing this I am saying that the 8 is a NON effort and coming from the last effort prior of a \"2\" (which is is line with his top 0 last year) and 6 weeks off from THAT effort into the Preakness I can expect a new top effort in the Preakness.  Dismissing that last effort and seeing that he is forging towards that 0 last year and can very well surpass it tomorrow!  JB has NEVER WENT backwards off 6 weeks rest and this is the best shot to run a top effort with so many angles going into his favor.

Small Recap:

1.  has never gone back off 6 weeks off from a top effort.

2.  has 6 weeks off from his 3yo top effort.

3.  ran an off 8 non-effort in his first slop and brutal pace in an expected off race anyway according to his 3 yo pattern.

4.  offers 12-1 ML value

5.  excusing the 8 non effort he is forging towards his 2 yo top (0.25) with perfect 6 weeks timing into the Preakness.

6.  Based on the above and what he has shown to us on Thorograph, a career top or new top effort can be expected in the Preakness.

7.  That effort would win.



What else do you guys need to play a 12-1 ML?!  imo Jackson Bend is the play here in the Preakness.  ML looks great to me at 12 -1 for this angle and a solid key in many exotic plays. I will be all over him everywhere.  Good Luck to all!

[martoon]

So you\'re saying he\'s had 6 weeks off even though he hasn\'t had 6 week off?  Should we pretend every other Derby starter that race never happened a couple weeks ago either either?  Not sniping... Just trying to figure this out...

[nyc1347]

His last race of an 8 is a complete toss out cause its NON effort.  How do I know this?  Well the last time he raced an 8 was last august and he has improved and developed completely from that point.   ALL his top efforts this year are 2s which are in line with each other.  To me there is a HUGE reason that 8 number is so bad and to me imo its bc he ran slop first time and it was a brutal pace.  Two things that the horse hasnt experienced before.  Do you think its a logical to think that JB will run 8s this year?  I personally dont think so and will toss that race out like it never happened unless im meeting similar situations in the future (ex: classic race in the slop going 10F assuming a faster pace, etc).  That doesnt exist for tomorrows race.

The 4 and 8 are only comparable bc they are non efforts and havent helped or hurt this horses best efforts.  If anything the 4 helped space his top efforts out giving him enough rest and im projecting the 8 to do the same consistent with what he has shown us.  PUT AN X on the 4 and 8.. those numbers mean NOTHING on Preakness day cause his PATTERN suggests a TOP effort tomorrow with the 6 weeks from his top effort.  those 4s and 8 will only mean something later on if he continues his on and off PATTERN. His PATTERN suggests that the 4 and 8 are non efforts that SHOULD be dismissed completely.  They are in no way a part of this horses true racing abilities.

With that being said the 2 efforts of \"2s\" this year are in line with his 0 effort last year.  He has proved that he can run a top effort off 6 weeks off numerous times and hes entering this race with that amount of time from his last top effort.  THIS years line to me entering the Preakness is 2 and 2!  NOT 2, 4, 2, 8...because I AM expecting an effort. An EFFORT WOULD EQUAL A 2, 0, OR NEW EFFORT. My pattern read is for a TOP race consitent with his alternate line (which doesnt include off efforts) AND also consistent with the rest he has from his last TRUE effort which happens to be in this situation a top.  Look at his career pattern with 6 weeks off.  They are all tops (10 to a 6, 5 to a 0, 4 to a 2  (which is a 3yo top)).  My opinion is consistent with this read and I am expecting a top effort tomorrow with a \"pair\" of 2s entering the Preakness based on pattern.  

The major question to me is will he run a 2 top? a 0 top? or a new top?  Well whatever he runs he will certainly be right there with everyone since most are slower than him.  In my opinion hes %33 to run a 2 (in the money) and %66 to run a 0 or better (a win at 12-1 ML).  Either way, in my opinion, unless he has some wide ground losing trip, is that hes %100 itm with a great shot to win at a nice price.

[mjellish]

I agree that JB derby was a non effort.  He\'s very sharp for this race and will be right towards the front with the good draw that he got. A decent trip is likely as long as he doesn\'t have to go too fast early.  My main concern with him is that he hasn\'t developed from 2 to 3.  This is not the typical profile of a triple crown race winner.  I also think this race is further than he wants to go.  
I don\'t think he can win.  But I think you are going to get a good price on him.  At the price I am going to use him underneath but won\'t be surprised if he backs up down the lane.

[nyc1347]

MJ -  

For him to develop from his last years top effort he would need to be in the negative territory.. which would be freakish that early in jan-mar.. u kno like smarty jones, eske, big brown, bernardini, etc..  Hes running tops of 2 this year but they are in line with that 0 effort especially being his second and third best races ever.. even an off 4 effort was his next best race ever.  Nothin wrong with that.  Hes running better than ever outside of that one 0 effort.  Going into this race with what he has previously shown to us he seems to have the best shot to get by that top or at least to it.  

Race looks even better for him when you have others such as Paddy and SS who have new tops with only 2 weeks rest.  LAL probably runs between a 0.75 to 3.75 with no value.  Dublin stuck outside and has already shown to get those wide trips.. and the horses who will save ground from the inside are too slow to win other than Yawanna.  YT has a nice top but im expecting a reaction from his last race.  No one else left to mention except Caracortado who runs his best on poly.

[TreadHead]

Not sure how you can say Caracortado runs his best on synthetic with absolutely no data to back that up, other than a maiden debut over a bullring track almost a year ago.  His synth numbers are well in line with, if not better than, most horses shipping from California after several synth races and then popping a zero or better on dirt.  I think he needs to be given the standard 50% chance of popping a big number and should be factored into tickets accordingly.

[mjellish]

I understand your take.  Can\'t say you\'re wrong to look at it that way.  But for me, not getting back to your two year old top this far along at 3 is a negative, and I don\'t care how fast the 2 year old top was.

This horse isn\'t bred to be a classic horse, he\'s not bred to get the distance, and I don\'t like him to win.  But I think with the draw and set-up he is likely to get, plus the fact that all the info I am getting is telling me this guy is acting very, very keen right now, tells me he probably will give it his all.  And I agree the the derby effort is a toss.  The horse spit out the bit at the top of the stretch and was obviously spinning his wheels all the way around.

I don\'t think he want to go this far, and I\'m pretty confident in that.  I also think he is going to be right up front and I don\'t know how fast they are going to go.  I\'m thinking he loses steam down the lane, but he\'s a gutty little guy and I think he will try his heart out.  At the price he is going to be he is worth using underneath for me.  I give him about the same chance to hit the board as Aikenite and First Dude, maybe a little better, but that\'s just me.

Good Luck though.

[slewzapper]

My take on JB is he is racing beyond his preferred distance. He was a precocious two year old, ran well in his 3yo debut going a one turn mile with a reasonable pace, bounced a little when stretched further and running on a slower pace, holding off a closing Aikenite, then returned to his current top running again on a comfortable pace, holding off an unshod Awesome Act and a sick Schoolyard Dreams.

In the Derby, he was back off a much faster pace, made a strong middle move (slop OK), then couldn\'t sustain the last quarter mile. 9.% furlongs, unless the pace is slow and the others are all compromised, may still be too far.

[MO]

Agree with your analysis of JB. I think he is distance limited but always tries hard. Nice work. I think he will be 2nd.

[nyc1347]

The data is there to me Tread.   U notice the HUGE jump when he ran on poly?  He only reacted from that point bc he didnt get enough rest and went back NOT because he jumped from such a HIGHER (sorry) dirt number.. first time he got rest about 6 weeks he went forward again which proves that hes better on poly.  that BIG jump tells me he should run better on poly than dirt especially not reacting from his top poly efforts with significant rest (3 months or so from top to top).  if he ran first out ever on poly imo he wouldve ran a much faster effort than his dirt number represents.  I take this as him being a poly horse and not dirt.

[TreadHead]

Understood, I just personally think you are reading way too much into the FPX race given it was his very first out and that is a bull ring track where horses spend almost as much time on turns as they do straight aways.  I\'m not saying to make him they key to the race, but it certainly cannot be that large a surprise if he happens to run a zero here and be right in the thick of it.

[jack72906]

Thanks for the analysis NYC. Good reasoning behind the JB selection.

I agree with most of it, but I have to side with others in that I think he\'s distance limited but more importantly he has run A LOT of races so I can\'t use him. Of course if there were no questions he wouldn\'t be 12-1 then would he?

Good luck.

[nyc1347]

Im just taking that dirt number for what it is..  the huge jump and him sustaining those numbers represents poly to me.   if he ran first out career poly he probaly wouldve been much better (around an 8 or so to me) which would be MORE in line with his true development of his numbers.  The lonely first out number has no indication whatsoever with his overall development cause it stands out as so slow.  Even being first out at FPX a horse that were to improve SO MUCH going to poly wouldve bounced off the walls.. and he didnt which should tell us that hes slower on dirt.  Hes right in line BUT those are poly efforts.  Going into the Preakness on dirt hes a toss to me.  I doubt the poly numbers would translate for him personally in this racing situation.  just my opinion.

[nyc1347]

JBs 3 yo tops this year were:


a 2 at 8F  and

a 2 going 9F this year!  

His TOP of 0.25 last year was at 8.5F.

He is running completely in line no matter the distance and ALL of these efforts are a TOP that his pattern suggests him to run in the Preakness which is 9.5F.

Dont see where you guys are thinking he cant get the distance...  u guys are looking at him with \"distance\" and dont realize that if it wasnt for Eskendereya, we would have a multiple stakes winner this year who isnt running his ultimate best against this crop at these distances.

[nyc1347]

On raw figures alone SS is currently (7:10pm eastern time friday) an 8/5 fave *LAL is 9/5*.   Based on those odds, SS being co-4th fastest, and 2 weeks off a career top in here.. you guys could have him all u want even with a forward move.  He would most likely need another top in here to win this.. doesnt make too much sense in a betting perspective.