Preakness by yours truly =) - You know what time it is?!

[Silver Charm]

Is anyone really surprised?? I said earlier in the week 9-5 and believe that is what he will be. Wise guy money will start taking the other prices and I doubt anybody is jumping up out of bed tomorrow to go abd get all the 8-5 they can get.

What is surprising here is LAL but Baffert has had a lot of succes in the Preakness (4 winners) and this is a pretty good horse. He will drift to 5-2 I predict and I don\'t see any value there either.

Playing for a price is not a sin. Playing for a price because you refuse to bet the best horse is.

There are exotics and multi race wagers to balance some of this out. I will not be in the win pool at 9-5. But I also will not be playing against Super Saver on ALL Tickets either.

[nyc1347]

and Paddy O\' is 8 to 1 3rd choice!   HUGE prices underneath the 2 faves!

[TreadHead]

Not sure if you are interested in any facts, but practically half the Derby field moved up dramatically 2nd start out, and many of them did it over a similar surface.  What I\'m trying to say is, how are you so certain the move-up was due to the surface change and not just normal 2yr old improvement?

Some examples:
Dublin improved 6pts
Paddy improved 4pts
Super Saver improved 4.5 pts
Jackson Bend improved 5 pts
Northern Giant improved 8 pts
Pleasant Prince improved 10 points moving to poly and then ran his lifetime top on dirt this year
Schoolyard Dream improved 6 points
Aikenite improved 5.5 points
Line of David improved 6 points
Sydney improved 7 points
HomeboyKris improved 7 points
Make Music For me improved 8 points

Amyway, I\'m sure he will finish out of the money now after such an in-depth study, but your reasons for discounting this horse do not add up.

[joekay]

How about First Dude, 1 length behind Pop in the BG and  4X the price.  Pulling for SS though, as I\'m alive in the dd.....figured that was the only to get value on him.

[nyc1347]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure if you are interested in any facts, but
> practically half the Derby field moved up
> dramatically 2nd start out, and many of them did
> it over a similar surface.  What I\'m trying to say
> is, how are you so certain the move-up was due to
> the surface change and not just normal 2yr old
> improvement?
>
> Some examples:
> Dublin improved 6pts
> Paddy improved 4pts
> Super Saver improved 4.5 pts
> Jackson Bend improved 5 pts
> Northern Giant improved 8 pts
> Pleasant Prince improved 10 points moving to poly
> and then ran his lifetime top on dirt this year
> Schoolyard Dream improved 6 points
> Aikenite improved 5.5 points
> Line of David improved 6 points
> Sydney improved 7 points
> HomeboyKris improved 7 points
> Make Music For me improved 8 points
>
> Amyway, I\'m sure he will finish out of the money
> now after such an in-depth study, but your reasons
> for discounting this horse do not add up.



those horses moved forward going from dirt to dirt or dirt to turf etc...  What I am saying is that bc of the slow dirt effort he improved huge going to poly..  if the fpx dirt effort on dirt were to translate to poly then his first out on poly wouldve been much faster because of how huge he ran so early on poly.  to me he wouldve run a much faster 1st out effort poly than what his dirt was.  By running such a nice poly top really early and reacting only bc of rest (which we can prove in his pattern) i am saying that he took to poly much better than he would have to dirt.

A horse like Dublin who ran HUGE 3rd time out (ALL on dirt) and improved big like Caracortado bounced off the walls 2 times after the 1.5 effort a 5.5 and a 10.  Compare that now to CAra...Dont you think with Cara, if that dirt effort were to mean anything, wouldve reacted much more than he did the 2 races after his poly top?  He reacted only a couple points in 2 straight races and when he got about 6 weeks rest he ran another big one (something lets say Dublin didnt do in this example)!  IF the first effort on dirt translated within his pattern I wouldve expected for Caracortado to bounce much more in those few races after his top cause of huge development and no rest.  He didnt so imo i am taking that as an indication that he loves the poly much more than the dirt and still runs slightly worse off top poly efforts w no rest.  This also tells me his next race on Poly should be pretty big since he will have plenty of rest from his last top poly effort.

[nyc1347]

also.. a majority of the time i see HUGE jumps and horses run consistent setting new top after decent rest are patterns with turf or poly horses.  this situation coincides more with that angle more than dirt.

if he ran an 8 or 9 or so on dirt then those on poly and only bounced a few points each of those 2 races than set a new top it wouldve been in line perfectly with his pattern.  with such a huge jump up i wouldnt think he could sustain that level unless he did get rest.. from poly top to top he had 3 months but the other off efforts coincided with very small reactions rather than huge bounces like Dublins 2yo line.  

When a horse makes THAT much of a jump forward so fast it usually takes a lot of time to get back to that top or new top effort and they usually dont stay in line like Cara has done. Cara imo has done that bc his dirt effort was not part of his pattern as he runs slower on that surface and imo wouldnt have run at this top level on dirt.  If it translated equally it wouldve imo looked much more like Dublin, Sidneys Candy or Homeboykris.

[albany]

In today\'s Thoroughbred Times, Len Friedman states that there is only one horse he can toss in the Preakness. That horse is Jackson Bend!

[mjellish]

Too funny.  

I\'m going to key Paddy and SD to win.  Will use Lucky and SS to either take 2nd or 3rd but not together.  Will use AIK, JB, FD to take 2nd or third with them, and all the rest to take 3rd only.  Will also play some tickets tossing SS and LAL completely.

So-

2,10 / 7,8 / 2,10 x 6 units
2,10 / 7,8 / 1,6,11 x 5 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 7,8 x 4 units
2,10 / 1,6,11 / 7,8 x 3 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 1,6,11 x 3 units
2,10 / 1,6,11 / 2,10 x 2 units
2,10 / 7,8 / 3,4,5,9,12 x 1.5 units
2,10 / 2,10 / 3,4,5,9,12 x 1 unit

Optional save with
7,8 / 2,10 / 2,10 x 1.5 unit
7,8 / 2,10 / 1,6,11 x 1 unit
7,8 / 1,6,11 / 2,10 x 1 unit

Can\'t say I\'m real likely to win, but I think it\'s the right way for me to play this race based upon my opinions and to make sure whatever I bet is offering some value.  The combos with LAL and SS in the tri will be way over bet.  If you can get a tri home without one of them you should be able to get some value.  Without both and you will be sitting very good.  If they both run in I pretty much don\'t care who else runs in with them it is likely to be an underlay, especially if it finishes SS,LAL/SS,LAL/Anything.  So I\'ll just have to let the chalky combos beat me and live to swing another day if they do.

Good Luck to all.

[nyc1347]

thats hilarious lol..  i mean.. he ran  TERRIBLE effort last out BUT to my personal opinion it was absolutely excused.  he had plenty of rest, ran slop first out, and experienced things hes never done before.. dunno what else to say but im expecting a nice effort today and with that angle his nice efforts are right there at a nice price with his pattern somewhat concealed in the programs and DRF.  funny stuff though lol  good luck to u all going to be a great day!

[P.Eckhart]

Don\'t see what\'s funny about throwing out Jacksons Bend first. Simply horrible pick IMO.

[bobphilo]

Super Saver most likely winner on speed and pace. I was hoping his Derby win would be downgraded due to his \"perfect trip\". Unfortunately, the bettors realize that his great trip was not due to luck but a product of his flexibility, tactical speed and the services of Calvin Borel, all of which he retains today.

Lookin At Lucky is a class act but as the effects his troubled trips cannot quantified like ground loss and pace (to a certain extent), all we can do is draw a line through them and he would have to improve on his best figures to top SS. Possible but not probable. He still is a must include in the Exacta, keying SS, as well as Paddy O\' Prado. I will include Dublin and Pleasant Prince on the bottom of the Exacta but I think the probable pace scenario favors the speedy ones, especially if they show flexibility.

Good luck to all.

Bob

[MO]

Super Saver and yawanna twist are by far the best looking in the post parade. Jackson Bend looks OK, but not great. Same with LAL. Did not get a chance to bet, but if I were betting, its a win bet at 2-1 on SS and and exacta box 5,6,8.

good luck to all.

[P-Dub]

Congratulations Baffert, Garcia, and the owners.

This horse deserves more respect than he has received around here. He again showed a lot of heart battling down the stretch.

[MonmouthGuy]

Congrats to the horse and his connections but i thought he was unbettable at 2-1. If you found value there, you found it with the two that came in behind him.

[nyc1347]

WOOOHOOOOO!!! $6.60!!! LMFAO!!   HEADED TO AC BOOOOOOYS!!!!  $3200 to show will do just fyyyyyyyne =)   A shame he couldnt win I wouldve had a $2 pick 3!