Belmont Race Shapes

[big18741]

Union Rags had some help at the bottom of his pedigree.
Nijinski was a 12f\'s plus horse and his daughter Terpsichorist won at 12f\'s.

In the case of Overanalyze he doesn\'t look as strong on the bottom as Union Rags.Doesn\'t mean he can\'t win the Belmont but on bloodlines he looks like a nine furlong horse and maybe borderline for ten.

[covelj70]

Big,

After a Roman Ruler out of a Saratoga Six mare won the Belmont, I decided I wasn\'t going to rule out pedigrees that \"can\'t get the distance\" anymore

Anyone remember when Distorted Humor\'s weren\'t suppossed to be able to get 1 1/4 let alone a 1 1/2?  Someone forgot to tell that to Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer respectively

Forestry\'s don\'t scream classic distance races but yet somehow Shackleford caused me to tear up all my Preakness tickets that year.

I don\'t want to come off as having alot of conviction on Overanalyze because I don\'t and I think anyone who says that have alot of conviction in any of the Belmont horses is kidding themselves because this is about as wide open of a classic race as I have ever seen (which is what makes it so cool)

I am looking for horses whose running style seems to fit the race and who have run well over the track and since Dixie Union sired last year\'s winner and this horse has run his best races at longer distances I am not going to throw him out on pedigree.  Throw a few good back TG figures in there (which I swore I wouldn\'t care about) and an alternating pattern and I have a horse I can make a low conviction case for at 12-1

[TreadHead]

Exactly my point JB, I think those % you spoke of are different on a fast/firm vs an off surface as well.

The forecast now appears to be extremely dire, this tropical storm is going to shoot up the coast and dump 2-3 inches of rain on NY from Friday to Sat morning.  To me, that all but guarantees the rail will be a negative on that inner turf course.  And given conditions will likely be as bad as CD if not worse, if POE does end up running here it would have to mean he was ducking Wise Dan, which just seems ridiculous.

POEs workout tab looked identical going into the BC last year, where he dropped back to 9th out of 12, but I will grant you that is at a longer distance so maybe he was ridden more conservatively there.  If horses are winning wire to wire all day on the turf then the jocks may realize they need to be as aggressive as possible out of the gate.

The other thing to watch is, with all this rain inbound, the track might be extremely dry today so it can hold as much water as possible?  Loose and tiring dirt?  Hard turf course that wont be watered?

[covelj70]

Tread,

Is POE the only one that has to run on the soft course?  Do the rest of them get a firm course to run on so that we get your breeders cup like 46 and change first half mile and he has to run by himself on a boggy course where he will struggle to go 50 seconds for the first half and be 10 lengths back?

He won a grade 1 race at this track on a yielding turf course beating a multiple grade 1 winner in the process who himself would be even money if he were in this race and you are making it out to seem as if he hates that kind of course.  Why is that?

There\'s not another horse in the race that looks like they will run a weight adjusted \"2\" to me and that means he is many lengths better than any horse in here even before the ground he should save

I love beating favorites as much as the next guy and I certainly won\'t be betting any money on this guy to win at 3-5 but I don\'t see the wisdom in trying to bet against him just for the sake of it when there\'s no one else in the race that you can logically project to run a number to beat him.  

Saying a favorite is vulnerable is one thing (which I don\'t agree with in this case anyway) but having an opion on WHO coudl beat him is necessary in order to make money and there\'s no one in this race that projects on the thorograph data to run a number that would beat him, even at the weight.

There is a MUCH greater likelihood that Twilight Eclipse and the Kimmel horse bounce off of their last figures than it is that Point of Entry doesn\'t run his race.  That would leave you beating one of the other horses that even with the weights and ignoring how much ground he should save and they should lose puts any of the others 6-7 lengths behind him

[Silver Charm]

Tread I have to side with Jim on the BC Turf Trip. It was an aberation. Less than 100 yards out of the gate Spencer on Treasure Beach looked over his left shoulder and dropped Treasure Beach right on the rail directly in front of POE who broke from the 1 hole. Spencer then dropped Anchor.....so much so that JV had to slightly check. Could JV have swung out a little and manuevered up in the race. NO!!! The other O\'Brien horse was on his right flank until the turn for home. The 2 O\'Brien horses kept him boxed. I have no doubt that after JV got a measure on the pace he would have moved up down the backstretch.....but he never had a chance. And once he got rolling down the lane on the rail Ramon smartly drifted over and closed that off. Racing Riding. Nothing dirty just what happens.  


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqNzAGyHy7E

POE is running on Saturday. He needs the race. They wanted firm Turf on Derby Day and wanted Wise Dan.....even at his better distance. Shugs son Chip works for Lopresti and there has been a friendly rivalry going on. Carrying 124lbs on a bog of a Turf Course going a 1M 1/4 and giving serious weight POE needs to be dead fit to win. As of 5 weeks ago he was....

[trackjohn]

FYI..Latest NWS synopsis:

 Potential for moderate to heavy rain should continue to spread east-Ward into the rest of the County Warning Area Friday via continued moisture transport from the south and precipitable water increasing to near 2 inches.


Tropical Storm Andrea...currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...
is then forecast to move up the southeast coast on Friday...As this takes
place...the heaviest rains should shift to the left of the low
track...and the strongest winds to the east...so the primary
threat appears to be heavy rain...with the highest amts over
NYC...Long Island and coastal CT. However...it would not take
much of a westward shift in the forecast track to shift axis of
heaviest rains farther north/west and to make wind a concern
especially over eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Please refer to
current and future NHC advisories/forecasts for further
details...and below for potential hydrologic impacts.


Post-tropical Andrea should pass well to the NE on Sat.

ESSENTIALLY...Heavy rain for NYC area and LI >2 inches beginning late Thursday evening continuing throughout Friday, ending on Saturday...For those going to
Belmont, after looking at the latest \'maps\' at this point the heavy rain should end between 7:00 - 10:00 am Saturday..However main track will be quite sloppy early on drying out as the day goes on...Lovely for handicapping (forgive my sarcasm)..

John

[Fairmount1]

JB, did you know that Serling was going to share your text to him about POE on air this morning on Talkin\' Horses?  

Serling also mentioned before his Just a Game analysis that the race would run over a part of the course that hasn\'t been run on weeks and the horses should be just fine running on that part of the turf course. I was unclear if this applied to the Manhattan which is originally listed as being run on the Inner Turf.  Can anyone clear this up?

[TGJB]

No, what did he say about it?

[Fairmount1]

I hate to paraphrase but he said it was a \"great text.\"  Fast forward to about 1:03:30.  Let it roll through 1:04.30 for the full context of his statements.  

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/handicapping/talking-horses-replay/

[jimbo66]

I think it was a text from a different Jerry brown.  Serling specifically referenced his Jerry brown text as coming from a shrewd or smart guy

Jim

[TGJB]

Either a different me or a different Andy.