Wicked Strong

[jimbo66]

Alright Pizza.

I won\'t worry about less hostile words and I read your incorrect post right the first time (and again just now).

Hard Spun hardly got easy leads in all the Triple Crown races.  It was the fastest or 2nd fastest Preakness pace of all time.  perhaps you don\'t understand what \"easy lead\" or \"soft pace\" is.

of the problems that Wicked Strong might have, his looks and his breeding aren\'t two of them.  He looks fine and is well bred to get the distance.  

Whether he is a grinder or a horse with acceleration that can make a strong move on the turn is one problem.

The other is how to read the series of races he has run since last November.

Glass half full - he hated Gulfstream and caught a race or two there were dynamics and bias held him back.

Glass half empty - He is an Aqueduct \"horse for the course\".  And Gulfstream wasn\'t the problem.

Not sure that 2nd choice is being well compensated enough to take the \"half full\" view, at least for me.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Those are the only two ways to look at that horse?

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

No, of course not.

he could be coming into form at the right time.

But i am bothered by the horse\'s two good runs coming at Aqu.  Would like to have seen another good race somewhere else.

Horses with \"one good three year old race\" are very tough to gauge (for me, but also for anybody).  Because 3 year olds can \"get good\" suddenly, but they could also be aberrational races.  Wicked Strong is sort of an example of that.  Danza is a much better example of that.  His run in the Arkansas Derby was wicked good, can\'t argue that.  Aberration?  or first chance to route and this will be his new \"norm\".

Tough calls.

But as I said, if Wicked strong is a clear 2nd choice, that makes that call easier for me.

[phil23]

Jimbo - think your point about the betting is well made. About a week ago I had CC maybe 5/2 (or even a tick less) and WS at 9\'s. Think that\'s out the window. I\'ve got it 3 and 6 now and honestly wouldn\'t be surprised if WS were even lower.

For what it\'s worth, and it may not be worth much because this is the craziest public race of the year odds wise, set to the correct CD takeout, I\'ve got it:

CC 3
WS 6
HOP 10
D 12
VIC 13 (rosie)
SAM 15
IH 15 (very positive on track reviews)
ROC 17 (and heck maybe lower due to you know who and the Billy Gowan hometown pr)
CBOY 18

....and the rest.

[pizzalove]

Alright Jimbo,

You still havent read this correctly.  I didnt say WS looks were a problem nor did I say his breeding was.  I just said he is easily not the best looking in this race and I dont believe he has the second best breeding.  Never said it was a problem.  

Plus I referred to the Derby and Belmont for Hard Spun.  Outside of Curlin and street sense in the Derby this was a very weak crop. He died in the preakness.

But if you want a made up Jimbo argument I would say you were wrong about giacomo being 3-1 in the Derby.  You were also wrong about Secretariat begin a filly.  And only colts can go on to become stallions not fillies.  That is what u said in ur post.

Lets forget the nonsense.  Waste of time.

[pizzalove]

I wonder if we could possibly see CC at 9-5 and WS at 5-1?  If that were to happen you would see some huge prices.  I am crossing my fingers.

[jimbo66]

Yes, I am done with this argument.

Anybody that calls that 3 year old group a \"weak crop\", doesn\'t understand the game.

Better off arguing with the guy who sells me coffee at Dunkin Donuts about horses..

[bellsbendboy]

Jimbo

This is a grade one winner, admittedly with a nice set up. Writing that he hated GP may not tell an accurate story.


After the Remsen, which established Wicked Strong ( the name sent to the Jockey Club \"Boston Strong\" was taken) as a top shelf colt. The ultra conservative \"JJ\" elects the toughest spot on the planet (Holy Bull) and this one comes back with an eight inch cut, requiring stitches, and predictably does not run a jump.

A solid half ensues two weeks later, followed by an \" I am the man\" five eights, six days before drawing way outside.  Taking a right at the break, and, as you note, \" no chance\".  Nevertheless he runs very well and works some seventeen furlongs and inhales the Wood field.

By any measure this colt figures.  bbb

[TreadHead]

Reading that 2007 was a poor crop makes my eyes bleed.

Opinions aside, an aggregate 8 efforts of 0 or better were run during the triple crown races that year, which is far and away better than any other year on TG record as far as I know.

[TGJB]

Yeah, this is a bad place to make unsupported statements, and a bad time of year to do it. So far I\'ve let Miff alone on \"people don\'t ship bad, horses do\".

[jimbo66]

Bell

Agree he has to be considered.  The wood makes him a player.  That and the Remsen.  The other gulf races were not good, albeit with excuses.  

Here is the problem for me.  He is econd choice.  With one good race this year and a good Remsen.

California chrome has been perfect in all his races this year and has a solid foundation last year as well.  

The price difference between favorite and second choice isn\'t enough for me to get over the fact thst he has had only one good run this year.

If he was 12-1.  Sure.  Not at 6-1 or so.  

Although once u go beyond CC there are nothing but flawed horses.  Danza?  One good run.  Hoppertunity\'s series of races this year are much closer to a classic profile of preps.  Sort of a real quiet type prep in the SA derby.

[Ollie]

Jim, Thanks for relating your observations concerning seeing Wicked Strong yesterday. I think your observations, and assessment, are spot on.

I think the horse has been a work in progress his entire short, 6 race career. In every one of his races last year, I thought the horse ran greenly. In his Remsen race, between his drifting (reacting to the whip) and switching back to his wrong lead in the middle of the stretch, before the rider got the horse to correct it, I thought it cost the horse the race --- despite all the problems, the horse still made up several lengths in the final 3/8th of a mile, that was run in a pretty credible 35.36.

In his Wood, he still did a bit of drifting during the early portion of the stretch, and his subsequent head turn, was almost comical. Once straightened out, and changing to his proper lead, he draws off to win pretty impressively, and in a respectable time.

So, just how good is the horse, if he run a race without any of the \"counter-active stuff\" mentioned above? I don\'t know. I don\'t have the answer, but to me, it could be scary good.

[bellsbendboy]

Roger that Jimbo yet \"chrome \" is being dealt a bad hand.  Performance aside his connections are out to lunch.

Paddock, gate, track, etc. is not an easy task, so why compress these necessaries into a very tight window.

Arrive Monday, possible at best, track Tuesday, Wed. gate, Thurs paddock  this is not 1955 Churchill Downs. Weather, track condition etc.

Understand this one looks a likely favorite who will run first (12%)or nowhere.  The General, strong, possibly the baffert, sadler... who else?

Not likely. bbb

[ajkreider]

My problem with Hopper is that the figure that makes him a player was on a wet fast track.  That makes him a big ? in this field - though he appears to have taken well to the track.

This is a deep, deep crop.  At the risk of defending pizza, there are nine probable starters that have run at least a 0.  NINE!  That\'s the same number as 2007 and 2013 combined.

[boston]

As of 911pm PCT Apr 26

Offshore odds - taking a $1000 wager.
These guys usually are not giving money away.

CC 2.85 to 1
WS 12.2 to 1