How good is this crop???

[BitPlayer]

I\'m not sure what all the raving is about.  Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the last round of preps, but the number of horses who have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip, and no one is running Big Brown figures.  Admittedly, the number of colts who ran fast figures at two and are still producing them is higher, the number of pairs suggests something really good may be coming, and some have won like there\'s more in the tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.

[SoCalMan2]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not sure what all the raving is about.
> Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the
> last round of preps, but the number of horses who
> have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with
> last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip, and
> no one is running Big Brown figures.  Admittedly,
> the number of colts who ran fast figures at two
> and are still producing them is higher, the number
> of pairs suggests something really good may be
> coming, and some have won like there\'s more in the
> tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.

This is Richiebee\'s point.  Maybe we need to wait.  Here is my question, has anybody every run a negative fig in the Derby and not won?  A Negative fig and not hit the board?  It seems to me it is possible that these sorts of things could occur this year but we have to wait and see.  One of the exciting things about 1973 was that Sham also broke the 2 minute barrier and it was way back to third.  Upstart strikes me as having a sheet in the region of Big Brown and Smarty Jones and he will probably be 5th or 6th choice this year.  

The interesting horse to me is Firing Line....here is a horse that ran Dortmund tough two races in a row and then exploded when he was put in against tomato cans.  It seems like undefeated Dortmund is the consensus second choice.  It also seems to me that you have to view Firing Line and Dortmund as at least very close in expected effort level. Even if Dortmund beats him, it isn\'t going to be by much. To me, Firing Line seems much more likely to work out a trip than Dortmund. YET, Firing Line figures to be 3 to 4 times the odds of Dortmund.  I very much like the way he has been prepared (with Eddery Off being the only issue).  I just can\'t imagine a derby ever where a horse like Firing Line will be the odds this horse will be.

[ajkreider]

The issue is the depth.  I don\'t have all the figs either, but I\'m pretty sure the horses with negative numbers are:

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Firing Line
Upstart
Materiality
El Kabeir

I would think Frosted ran in that neighborhood, and Carpe Diem probably got close.  Upstart\'s best is in Big Brown territory.  He\'ll be 20-1.  El Kabeir, 30-1. None of these were in a sprint or even mile races. And I\'m leaving out the negs from horses on the sidelines (khozan, daredevil, Texas Red, etc)

A negative number is almost always good enough win. Find me another year with that kind of depth.

[Topcat]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BitPlayer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I\'m not sure what all the raving is about.
> > Obviously, I haven\'t seen the figures from the
> > last round of preps, but the number of horses
> who
> > have run a \"1\" or better seems consistent with
> > last year, no one has overcome a brutal trip,
> and
> > no one is running Big Brown figures.
> Admittedly,
> > the number of colts who ran fast figures at two
> > and are still producing them is higher, the
> number
> > of pairs suggests something really good may be
> > coming, and some have won like there\'s more in
> the
> > tank, but we haven\'t seen it yet.
>
> This is Richiebee\'s point.  Maybe we need to wait.
>  Here is my question, has anybody every run a
> negative fig in the Derby and not won?  A Negative
> fig and not hit the board?  It seems to me it is
> possible that these sorts of things could occur
> this year but we have to wait and see.  One of the
> exciting things about 1973 was that Sham also
> broke the 2 minute barrier and it was way back to
> third.  Upstart strikes me as having a sheet in
> the region of Big Brown and Smarty Jones and he
> will probably be 5th or 6th choice this year.  
>
> The interesting horse to me is Firing Line....here
> is a horse that ran Dortmund tough two races in a
> row and then exploded when he was put in against
> tomato cans.  It seems like undefeated Dortmund is
> the consensus second choice.  It also seems to me
> that you have to view Firing Line and Dortmund as
> at least very close in expected effort level. Even
> if Dortmund beats him, it isn\'t going to be by
> much. To me, Firing Line seems much more likely to
> work out a trip than Dortmund. YET, Firing Line
> figures to be 3 to 4 times the odds of Dortmund.
> I very much like the way he has been prepared
> (with Eddery Off being the only issue).  I just
> can\'t imagine a derby ever where a horse like
> Firing Line will be the odds this horse will be.


Something in the back of my mind tells me there is, but someone here will know: Is there some sustained KD ped trend about Storm Cat on top (or bottom) being great (or death) in KD?

[BitPlayer]

I think you\'re more generous with negative numbers than TGJB.  We\'ll see.

[PonyBologna]

No Storm Cat descendant has ever won the Derby. Many have run second (Menifee, Lion Heart, Bluegrass Cat, Ice Box, Bodemeister and, most recently, Commanding Curve).

Storm Cat had 8 runners last year and 3 of them finished in the last four spots.

Six horses in the 2013 Derby were Storm Cat\'s and four held down the last four positions.

Eight more ran in 2012 and five wound up in the bottom half of the field.

Another eight ran in 2011 and all failed, including the two favorites.

Horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees have run last each of the last four runnings.

That said, I would not toss out a talented descendant of SC just based on this. I might, however toss out a talented horse who has never ran in a race with more than 9 horses in it, like American Pharaoh. No horse in the last 35 years has won without facing 9 or more opponents. Something to be said for at least some experience in a larger field.

As for Storm Cat horses that are candidates for the bottom rung this year: Stanford and El Kabeir are my guesses.

[RICH]

Carpe Diem , storm cat descendant , who are 0-44 in derbies, thats rough, no?

[pizzalove]

Agreed.  However I would not be surprised to see Pharoah and Dortmund both under 4-1 with one under 3-1.  Maybe Dortmund with much superior breeding.

[toppled]

Have any of the Storm Cats looked as good going in as Dortmund, Carpe Diem, or American Pharoah?

[Sandreadis]

Tobasco Cat catches an off track(Go For Gin) in the Derby before winning the Preakness and Belmont. 3rd choice behind Holy Bull and Brocco.

[Topcat]

PonyBologna Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Storm Cat descendant has ever won the Derby.
> Many have run second (Menifee, Lion Heart,
> Bluegrass Cat, Ice Box, Bodemeister and, most
> recently, Commanding Curve).
>
> Storm Cat had 8 runners last year and 3 of them
> finished in the last four spots.
>
> Six horses in the 2013 Derby were Storm Cat\'s and
> four held down the last four positions.
>
> Eight more ran in 2012 and five wound up in the
> bottom half of the field.
>
> Another eight ran in 2011 and all failed,
> including the two favorites.
>
> Horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees have run
> last each of the last four runnings.
>
> That said, I would not toss out a talented
> descendant of SC just based on this. I might,
> however toss out a talented horse who has never
> ran in a race with more than 9 horses in it, like
> American Pharaoh. No horse in the last 35 years
> has won without facing 9 or more opponents.
> Something to be said for at least some experience
> in a larger field.
>
> As for Storm Cat horses that are candidates for
> the bottom rung this year: Stanford and El Kabeir
> are my guesses.


Thanks.  Knew someone would come through.

[Topcat]

It\'s just that (at least the surface) depth is remarkable.