whose most likely to bomb???

[sekrah]

jerry Wrote:
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> Why does it matter? From a wagering perspective,
> there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them
> could bomb. The only edge is betting all of them
> to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.

This is totally untrue. If you spot a vulnerable odds-on favorite, and there is one here, then you have an opportunity. Especially in a race with huge pools.

There\'s absolutely betting opportunity in this race. There\'s an opportunity to aggressively push an edge.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Thank you Jerry for being the voice of reason. If this race wasn\'t a biggie nobody on this board would be betting it.

[toppled]

When was the last time a horse coming off a 2.5 point new top with 2 weeks spacing considered a good bet?   AP & FL are horrible bets and both bounce candidates.  But, given the data that his trainer is a perfect 3/3 in the Preakness with Derby winners and a 5 time winner overall with Derby runners on 2 weeks rest, AP has a much better chance of having the better race of the 2. The data on this race for this trainer is hardly irrelevant.  

If I was forced to play the race and was looking for the best value it certainly wouldn\'t be 4/1 Firing Line.  It would be the horse who ran a new top & then paired it in the Derby-15/1 Danzig Moon. He\'s most likely to have a forward move in him than the horse who just fired his best shot with a 2.5 new top & is a likely bounce candidate off 2 weeks rest.

[DaveDuggan]

Serious question, how do you estimate Firing Lines chances for a bounce in percentages? And maybe the same for AP. It would be a cool exercise for your sheet theory 101-exam, maybe it could even help you to spot some value in the \"unbettable race\"!

[toppled]

Off the top of my head, my guess would be 50/50 for each.  Since it\'s the ROW, I\'ll now go & look at the Thoro-Pattern on the sheet.  Here\'s what it says in top, pair, off, x  order
AP: 36, 27, 21, 17
FL: 43, 25, 21, 11

So, Thoro Pattern says that neither should bomb, with FL having a slightly better chance of a new top than AP, and AP having a slightly better chance, although only 17% of Xing.  However, since FL has 1.5 points to make up on AP & should lose more ground, based on this pattern AP is the most likely winner & FL the 2nd most likely-similar to Jerry\'s analysis in the ROW write-up.  There\'s a reason Jerry called this race \"a pretty poor betting race\", because it is.

[mjellish]

Tough to say IMO just based on their sheet.  And really tough to claim one is a stronger bounce candidate than the other since neither has bounced yet, especially without seeing them.  

Would sure be nice if there was a way to get their race day weight.

[sekrah]

toppled Wrote:
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> When was the last time a horse coming off a 2.5
> point new top with 2 weeks spacing considered a
> good bet?  

Does the answer \"Quite often!!\" suffice?

1997-Silver Charm ran a 2.5 pt top in the Derby, paired it up to win the Preakness.
1999-Charismatic ran a 4.5 pt top in the Lexington, paired it up to win the Derby.
2002-Proud Citizen ran a 3.75 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2005-Giacomo ran a 4.5 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2007-Street Sense ran a 4.25 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2007-Hard Spun ran a 2.75 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preakness
2009-Mine That Bird ran a 6.25 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preakness (troubled trip)
2011-Animal Kingdom ran a 3.25 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preaknes
2013-Mylute ran a 2.25 pt top in the Derby, moved forward another point in Preakness

Is that enough to jar your memory?

When you consider the relatively small number of horses who\'ve run 2+ pt tops in the Derby AND run in the Preakness, that is a crazy % of horses who have come back to perform quite well on short rest, don\'t you think?  Several of these were two-prep 3yo\'s going into the Derby with wide spacing, such as Mylute, who moved forward again! https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/prk2013.pdf

[DaveDuggan]

\"Off the top of my head, my guess would be 50/50 for each.\"

And on that bombshell.. Good night!

[TGJB]

Mostly right except for Street Sense, who ran back to his huge 2yo figure.

[sekrah]

Whoops, that 2yo top buzzed over my head, but yea, the point remains solid.

Horses have paired up their Derby tops in the Preakness quite a bit, and there\'s zero evidence that \"previous large spacing between races\" is an impediment to a horse making a quick-turnaround for the first time.

[horsegoer]

What a terrible race. AP an easy winner with nobody to threaten.

[toppled]

You just made a great case for American Pharoah winning the Preakness.

[sekrah]

toppled Wrote:
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> You just made a great case for American Pharoah
> winning the Preakness.


Except for the fact that he\'ll be running his 3rd race in 5 weeks, which has destroyed one Triple Crown contender after another in the Belmont.

It\'s undeniable that Firing Line\'s pattern and spacing coming into the Preakness is superior to AP\'s.

[jerry]

You\'re crazy. You\'ve got a 3 horse race where anyone of them could bounce and the best price you\'ll get is 3-1. Make a bet for bragging rights but look somewhere else to make a score.

[jp702006]

I\'m with you on this one. I think Firing Line is going to bounce. I will not be wagering much on this particular race, but will try and find some prices in the pick 4 and 5 and single to AP.