whose most likely to bomb???

[Bet Twice]

Couldn\'t agree more.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:

> It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a
> Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is
> JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the
> foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick
> 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> year.

Not necessarily true Sek.

How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty Jones won at odds on??

Just looked up the others.  11/1, 5/2, 4/1.  Along with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid around $750. Not bad.

Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if the prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a couple good ones in the other races.  You don\'t need to find ridiculous bombs either.

The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost. The 5/2 was really strong on TG.  And the 11/1 had the fastest TG number on the turf. I played a really cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the 5/2 and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1), and spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the Preakness trying for a bigger score.  I know I cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.

I remember that day very clearly.  Went with 3 buddies who are very good handicappers. I used TG, they were straight racing form guys. I was the only one with a winning ticket, and tried for 10 minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was the 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG challenged.

Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day, P4 paid $1600 for a buck.

For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you.  But don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in horizontals, because those can pay just fine too.

[sekrah]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
>
> > It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> > betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> > overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in
> a
> > Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race
> is
> > JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in
> the
> > foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> > spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> > with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1
> Pick
> > 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> > year.
>
> Not necessarily true Sek.
>
> How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty Jones
> won at odds on??
>
> Just looked up the others.  11/1, 5/2, 4/1.  Along
> with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid around
> $750. Not bad.
>
> Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if the
> prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a
> couple good ones in the other races.  You don\'t
> need to find ridiculous bombs either.
>
> The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost. The
> 5/2 was really strong on TG.  And the 11/1 had the
> fastest TG number on the turf. I played a really
> cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the 5/2
> and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1), and
> spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the
> Preakness trying for a bigger score.  I know I
> cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.
>
> I remember that day very clearly.  Went with 3
> buddies who are very good handicappers. I used TG,
> they were straight racing form guys. I was the
> only one with a winning ticket, and tried for 10
> minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was the
> 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG
> challenged.
>
> Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day, P4
> paid $1600 for a buck.
>
> For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you.  But
> don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in
> horizontals, because those can pay just fine too.


Here\'s my argument to this, and I\'ll use your Shared Belief example.  The Race 10 Pick 3 that day paid $1164. The increase to $1600 was about 0.37, his off-odds were 0.30, so you squeezed a hair extra value out of it, but you essentially risked $1164 on a 2/5 shot. How often have you placed an $1100 bet on a 2/5 shot in your life?

Pick 3 would have been the better horizontal to play.

[PapaChach]

P-Dub,

You\'re bringing back good memories, Mr. O\'Brien may have been the last ticket I\'ve cashed on a Preakness Day! I exaggerate, but only slightly...

Haven\'t handicapped tomorrow yet, other than looking at the ROTW. Only thought I had so far was that if I liked one or more of the other legs, might take a stab at the P4, singling on Danzig Moon in the hopes that a hot pace softens up the favorites and a pair-up or slight forward move off the pair is enough to get him there. But your point about the Smarty Jones P4 is a good one and something to consider for tomorrow.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > sekrah Wrote:
> >
> > > It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a
> bad
> > > betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> > > overwhelming likely winner, then singling him
> in
> > a
> > > Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race
> > is
> > > JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in
> > the
> > > foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> > > spread huge in the other legs and often end
> up
> > > with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1
> > Pick
> > > 4 that people got when they singled Chrome
> last
> > > year.
> >
> > Not necessarily true Sek.
> >
> > How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty
> Jones
> > won at odds on??
> >
> > Just looked up the others.  11/1, 5/2, 4/1.
> Along
> > with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid
> around
> > $750. Not bad.
> >
> > Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if
> the
> > prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a
> > couple good ones in the other races.  You don\'t
> > need to find ridiculous bombs either.
> >
> > The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost.
> The
> > 5/2 was really strong on TG.  And the 11/1 had
> the
> > fastest TG number on the turf. I played a
> really
> > cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the
> 5/2
> > and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1),
> and
> > spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the
> > Preakness trying for a bigger score.  I know I
> > cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.
> >
> > I remember that day very clearly.  Went with 3
> > buddies who are very good handicappers. I used
> TG,
> > they were straight racing form guys. I was the
> > only one with a winning ticket, and tried for
> 10
> > minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was
> the
> > 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG
> > challenged.
> >
> > Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day,
> P4
> > paid $1600 for a buck.
> >
> > For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you.
> But
> > don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in
> > horizontals, because those can pay just fine
> too.
>
>
> Here\'s my argument to this, and I\'ll use your
> Shared Belief example.  The Race 10 Pick 3 that
> day paid $1164. The increase to $1600 was about
> 0.37, his off-odds were 0.30, so you squeezed a
> hair extra value out of it, but you essentially
> risked $1164 on a 2/5 shot. How often have you
> placed an $1100 bet on a 2/5 shot in your life?
>
> Pick 3 would have been the better horizontal to
> play.

You\'re missing something.

I and others (JB) played 3/4 others in case the favorite lost.

Nothing wrong with adding the 3/5 shot as insurance in case he still wins. If he loses the P4 paid huge.  The chalk won so it didn\'t, but still an IRS ticket.

Saying the P3 would have been a better bet dollar for dollar is the same as saying water is wet. Its obvious and not the point of this discussion.

You think I was rooting for Smarty to win that race?  Of course not, the others were paying 5-10X what he paid.

You\'re saying its pointless to play an odds on horse in verticals.  I\'ve given examples it isn\'t. Adding an odds on to the ticket, having him win, and getting less of a return beats ripping up a \"value\" ticket that pays nothing.

The odds on horse has to have a shot to win.  There\'s a difference between playing an odds on horse with a chance to win, while acknowledging that others have a chance to win, and playing an odds on shot with little to no shot at winning (Preachinatthebar was a terrible 4/5 shot that day to the 4/1 winner).

As for Shared Belief, there was zero chance he lost that race unless Smith fell off the horse. None.  You basically get a P4 at a P3 price and getting a premium. What\'s wrong with that?? And I had the P3 you talked about, but that didn\'t keep me from playing the P4.  Separate pool, money to be won.

[johnnym]

Hard to pass up Dortmund at 7-1

[sekrah]

P-Dub, my bad, when you said Shared Belief was a \"free square\", I assumed you singled him. Playing a single on Shared Belief makes no sense to me, even if you think Smith would have had to fall off.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Of the big three he is the only one not to hit a new top with only 2 weeks rest. That could work in his favor and at 8-1 very hard to pass up.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub, my bad, when you said Shared Belief was a
> \"free square\", I assumed you singled him. Playing
> a single on Shared Belief makes no sense to me,
> even if you think Smith would have had to fall
> off.

I singled him in the Big Cap. There are no sure things, but to me, the only way he loses is if Smith falls off. And he pretty much won like it.

You said the payouts were 1164 for the buck P3. The P4 paid $1600. This string is littered with comments by many about perceived \"value\".  The tote said .30, which to me was an overlay.  The horse should have been 1/9 against that bunch, on that day, at that track.

Getting $1600 in the P4 was the same as getting $1164 in the P3. You get a $326 bonus for playing an extra race with a horse that, in my estimation, wins that race 9 times out of 10.

If you believe that is \"squeezing a hair of value\" out of it, then that is your opinion of the value in the race. And its one you\'re entitled to.

However, you can\'t make post after post about what YOU perceive as value in a 4/1 shot in a race that many see as unplayable, and then in the next breath tell me what the value was in the race I played. My opinion on that race sequence is valid to me, just as your opinion on the Preakness is valid to you.  I may disagree that there is value in the race, but that doesn\'t make me right.

If the horse goes off at what I thought he SHOULD have gone off, then the P4 makes perfect sense.

You put in horizontals without knowing what the payouts are going to be, or what the odds on a specific horse is going to be in future races. I didn\'t know if SB was going to be 1/9, 1/5, or 4/5. Give me a crystal ball, and I\'ll make the perfect wager every time.

The Preakness, for me, is probably unplayable.  But if you have an opinion, and find value in it, I\'m not gonna call you crazy. Whomever had the winner of the Black Eyed Susan today, a race I had a live P4 going to 4 horses and whiffed, had an opinion completely different than me. They cashed, i didn\'t.

Great game.

Let\'s agree to disagree.

[T Severini]

(1) I think I got in trouble on this race. I was wagering from my computer and watched Barbaro hammer through the gate and Duly hammered my exacta of Bernardini and Sweet Northern Saint. Boxed though. It was really all I had time to do. Was working on increasing extended exotics but that was all she wrote.

Can\'t remember why I thought Barbaro was going to go south, but I did. When the gate incident happened I was certain.

Agree, when they bust through it is generally a very bad sign. A favorite busting through rarely wins. There\'s an energy and psychological effect. That\'s right, equine psychology.

I\'m really hesitant to say it, but I have a similar feeling about AP, but am off to review his recent works someone here crowed about.

T Sev

 mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Reminds me of 2006 Preakness.  Barbaro looked like
> as sure a thing as you would see, and also had 6
> weeks between his FL Derby and the KY Derby if I
> remember correctly, which was almost unheard of
> then.  Lots of talk about how that extra spacing
> was going to help him now (similar to what Sek has
> been saying about Firing Line).
>
> I was at the track with my father on Preakness
> day, just he and I, and he insisted that I give
> him a Preakness bet.  I said it was a pass race
> for me unless Barbaro looked bad in the paddock,
> which he didn\'t by the way.  20 minutes before the
> race my dad still insisted I give him a bet.  So I
> told him if he had to be a degenerate here it was,
> and I wrote down TRI 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL for whatever
> amount he wanted.  He walked up and put that bet
> in.  As they loaded, Barbaro broke through the
> gate and it dawned on me immediately that Barbaro
> was maybe going to go off form (never have really
> seen a horse run a top after breaking through the
> gate, not saying it hasn\'t happened but the
> percentages are poor).  I was up and running to
> the window immediately, and I mean immediately,
> figuring I would still have enough time to get my
> bet in as the vet looked at Barbaro etc.  But
> instead they wheeled him right around and put him
> back in with just a cursory check and they were
> off within a minute, so I got shut out.  I got
> back to my father right around the time Barbaro
> broke down and said, \"You are going to win that
> damn bet and make a wad.\"  He cashed his ticket
> and tipped me a couple hundred as I recall and
> said \"Good Bet Boy.  Thanks.\"
>
> My point being that it was a very unhappy moment
> for a lot of reasons and one you could not see
> coming.  And unless someone has a piece of
> information about the Preakness this year that I
> don\'t have access to, there is no way this is a
> good betting race.  It may be a good gambling race
> if you want to gamble, but it\'s not a good betting
> race if you are thinking you have an edge because
> you don\'t.  And I don\'t mean to sound arrogant
> there.  I\'m simply saying that if you bet your
> opinion and turn out to be right good for you.
> But the percentages just based on looking at their
> sheets can\'t be much more than 50/50 either way
> with any of these colts.  There are just way to
> many variables this year.  And I do not trust a
> public comment by a trainer or a race track rumor
> in any way shape or form.
>
> I want to play AP to bounce and hope to see some
> visual evidence that gives me the confidence to do
> so. And I want to see it myself or hear it from
> someone with eyes that I completely trust.  
>
> I have no choice but to wait until the last minute
> on this one.

[jerry]

I don\'t bet off shore but thanks for the suggestion.

[jerry]

Wondering how much you like him at 5-2 in the early on track wagering? Still a play?

[MonmouthGuy]

Verticals were good. AP was not most likely to bomb.  Firing Line was. Covello was right. Storms came in as scheduled, not later.

[HP]

AP should have something left for the Belmont.  He sure didn\'t get whipped 30 times today.  They came up and he blew them off on his own, hand ridden to the wire.  Especially impressive since he got out of the gate fast too.  Will be interesting to see him butt heads early with Materiality if that\'s what\'s coming.

[joemama]

Slowest race since 1956.