Question for anyone who likes Materiality

[ringato3]

Michael D

I think if u look vertical, I would agree.   The race sucks.   I don\'t think AP pulls a big brown type race and I think materiality and frosted run well.

That said, as a horizontal bettor, if I think the 5-1 and 6-1 shots have ALMOsT as strong a chance as the 1-2 shot, I can\'t say the race stinks.  Actually, I think it is an excellent horizontal betting race.

Rob

[Michael D.]

fair enough, Rob. I didn\'t like Mat or Frosted in the Derby, and I don\'t find either to be particularly interesting in this spot. but AP will be overbet because of the circumstances and keying one of the fast ones, albeit at lowish odds, makes some sense. and as I said earlier, I think they both benefit if the pace is soft and the race plays short.

[T Severini]

I know that TGraph bettors will be separating these two animals on patterns. For me, I like the pattern analysis, but one is always looking for a little more to flesh out the bet.

I believe that Materiality has a more clearly defined Distance pedigree. It starts with what his sire accomplished and he brings in more from his female side. I\'m not saying Materiality is an impeccably bred Belmont Stakes animal, but to my eye there is definitely more there. There\'s tail female influence in his half sister Miss Sophia and another tail female horse that was named Eye of the Tiger. Neither was outstanding, but both won at 9 and 9.5 furlongs respectively.

Materiality has shown good professionalism in his workouts, especially tandem workouts. He\'s not over eager and I don\'t expect him to be on the lead. If American Pharoah won\'t take it, Materiality may inherit the lead. I think he\'d be very dangerous there.

I like Materiality to win this race or perhaps earn second. I will play him in the first three finishing positions.

mjellish Wrote:
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> From looking at the past performances it would
> appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> runners in the race.  AP is a confirmed front
> runner.  He may not have the lead but he is going
> to be close.  And it\'s hard to believe that
> Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.  
>
> So if you assume that to be true, how do you take
> Materiality to win that duel?  Do you figure AP to
> bounce or not get the distance?  
>
> If not, if you think they will both run their race
> and have about the same chance of getting the
> distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> and will run on longer?  That\'s a pretty tough
> pill for me to swallow.
>  
> I can really see playing this race assuming that
> if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of
> the trip around he will likely get cooked.  AP may
> get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
>
> For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.

[T Severini]

jbelfior Wrote:
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> > Anyone impressed with the pedigree of Ruler On
> Ice, Commendable, D\'Tara, or Tabasco Cat?
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Da\' Tara actually had something to offer on pedigree. Commendable looks a little better from the future, but that was a weak Belmont. Suppose if they go slow enough any kind of pedigree can win. Maybe that\'s the tactics referred to. Slow and Steady. With the exception of Tabasco Cat as favorite in his Belmont Stakes, you\'ve cited some slowly run races. But then some might say we are coming off a New York Bred Slow Rats Derby and a slower Preakness.

But for every off pedigree winner you have to count horses like Drosselmeyer, Lemon Drop Kid, Ap Indy, Colonial Affair and a much larger host of others. (Drosselmeyer crawled too.)

Regarding Slow Rats, I\'m working Tale of Verve into this bet.

[Deadrockstar]

I think, actually, that the last thing Espinoza will do is get in a duel with Materiality. I think he\'ll sit just off him whether Materiality runs a half in 47 or 49 (And I hope it\'s 47). The question is, what\'s in AP\'s tank at the 3/8s pole?

[flushedstraight]

Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> I think, actually, that the last thing Espinoza will do is get in a duel with Materiality.

to me that\'s the elephant in the OTB...  advanatage Mat.. come get me, now, later, don\'t matter but you better bring your A game cause that\'s what I brought today


> The question is, what\'s in AP\'s tank at the 3/8s pole?

enough gas to get to the 1/4 pole