Ask The Experts

Scanning the pages...  I feel less bad about not cashing the 2013 Derby.

How the hell did Golden Soul finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby?  That has to be one of the worst long term sheets for a Classic placer and consistent Graded Stakes entrant I have ever seen.  Poor fella needs some class relief.

Jim I was thinking maybe Shug got off JV because of the spill and injury.  They sure made an announcement rather abruptly after that spill when before he said he was going to take his time making a decision.  Maybe it wasn\'t his decision anymore and the only choice he had left.  Who knows how well JV is really going to be feeling, and I thought it was a convenient announcement that he would be riding again derby week when barely out of the hospital.  Broken bones rib and wrist? Not sure I\'d want to commit to him on my Derby favorite with the unknowns of those injuries and the layoff.

Congrats Jerry!  Stressful I get.  I\'m a big Redskin fan and of course was excited when the legend Joe Gibbs came out of retirement and returned to coach the Skins.  Well I knew it was never going to work when I saw Gibbs turn away from watching his own kicker attempt a game winning field goal!  He literally turned to the stands, dropped to his knees, closed his eyes and prayed rather than watch the field goal.  The head coach! And he did this a couple times after he came back.

I say this because that\'s how I\'m getting now watching a race with any kind of real money bet on it.  I find myself turning away and not even watching until they hit the lane.  I\'m losing my stomach for it, even though I fully realize that kind of nervous energy is what makes the sport so invigorating.

Anyhoo.. Congrats again on killing them in the 2nd half.  Nice way to head into the holidays.  On another note.. I think you need a new product.  Something like your race of the week but more of a race of the day or several best bets of the day, or a wekend stakes package for those of us who don\'t have time, or more likely too lazy to do their own serious handicapping on a regular basis.  I\'d buy that one regularly instead the Analysis product.

It\'s been raining everyday this week in Maryland, so I\'m sure he just preferred to get his exercise in galloping over the all weather track instead of a muddy dirt track.  That\'s not unusual at all for Fair Hill trained horses.

What does that mean \"races them cold\"?   It\'s funny I hear a lot of trainers say, you just have to keep them happy and healthy and they\'ll win for you.  Maybe not. I would understand a legend going to 10% or so but it is literally like 0% to 1% for him in Cali\'s six horse fields.  I know he has slow horses but he\'s racing at the bottom claiming ranks against other slow horses and no-name trainers.  Does horsemanship matter anymore?  Or is it a California thing?

Damn.. Sekrah can handicap his ass off.  Always giving out price winners.

Hey Rick...You are making my point for me...  i am saying you can\'t afford these high percentage trainers you like so much for a cheap claimer.  But forget $5k, you can\'t afford to use them for a $20k claimer either...  You better have a good allowance or stakes horse and it better stay healthy.

You have stars in your eyes for these Super trainers but you don\'t want to pay their rates?  They won\'t even answer your call unless you have an expensive well meant animal to work with.

Nobody starts out intending to give Pletcher and Dutrow a low claimer.  Unfortunately however statistics say that\'s where 90% of these horses is going is going to end up.  You only see the tip of the iceberg.  These guys have gotten rid of most of their crap stock before you ever see them.  How many horses do you think Pletcher or Dutrow have start their yearling breaking in their program before you see a Soldat or Flashpoint on your TV screen.  Hundreds.

It goes more like this..  $100 a day and  all kinds of vet bills for months before he even runs.  Then he does run poorly and you make some excuses and adjustments, he runs poorly again. After a few of these you realize he\'s a claiming animal.  But you\'re 8 months into it already.  So yeah you got denutted as you say, but nobody admitted he was a $5k claimer until today.  Then you might move him to a cheaper trainer who was probably an assistant to Pletcher or Dutrow in the past.  They charge a cheaper day rate which seems like a good deal, but those vet bills have a way of creeping up on you again as they apprenticed in this style.    Asmussen is the only one of the so called super trainers who even keeps and runs the low level horses as a part of his business plan.  He runs bottom level stuff every day and you would not enjoy those vet bills.  He  doesn\'t cut his rate or ask you if you\'d prefer less meds or vet work for your low level animal if that\'s what it turns out to be.

I guess the point is that unless you have regal stock, at least that lower win percentage low vet bill trainer will get you to that all important point of finding out if your horse is talented at all for much much less money.  If it\'s a good horse, you have options.  And you\'re lucky.